Status of the Electoral College

Again, some of these states right on the border can flip and flop between a status (more on that in a second), but for the time being, Wisconsin has moved into Strong Obama territory (with Michigan and Pennsylvania right on it’s heels), putting Obama back over 200 “strong” Electoral Votes for the first time since July 8th and marking the most “strong” electoral votes he has ever held at 207.

Another state that has flopped is Virginia, back down to Too Close To Call thanks to the Mason-Dixon poll showing him on up only 2%.  As is the case with many Mason-Dixon polls this year, this is the first time Obama has ever held a lead in this state with them, so even though it looks close, it’s actually a 5% improvement for Obama since earlier in the month.

In a very bad sign for McCain, Obama has piled up enough good results in Virginia to push that state into the Lean Obama column, at least for the time being, with only 15 days before election day.  This pushes Obama’s current official total to the highest point it has ever been, with 286 Electoral Votes vs. McCain’s 155 and with 97 still Too Close To Call, the first time we’ve ever had under 100 Too Close To Call Electoral Votes.  McCain’s 155 Electoral Votes remains just 4 shy of his low of 151 which he set on both July 15th and August 19th.

P.S., this does include “Real Virginia” as well as “Communist Virginia.”

Obama pulls yet another Kerry state into his Weak Obama category.  This now pushes Obama’s official tally to 264 Electoral Votes, This once again marks Obama’s highest official number and margin over McCain since July 22nd.  It is also the first time Obama’s lead over McCain is over 100 Electoral Votes since then.

This leaves only 8 Too Close To Call states - all of them Bush 2004 states.

There are also two very good polls in Virginia out today, with Suffolk University giving Obama a 51%-39% lead in the state while Survey USA gives Obama a 53%-43% lead in the state.   This is on top of CNN’s 53%-44% poll out 5 days ago and Insider Advantage’s poll out 6 days ago showing a 6% lead.

The only polls holding Virginia back from probably being a full-fledged lean Obama state are Mason-Dixon and ARG, both of which, remarkably, have shown 3% McCain leads in the state in the past week.  However, a majority of polling shows Obama gaining in the state, if not running away with it now.

In what is the first in probably a string of states which will start moving more decisively towards Obama pretty soon, some good polling from Quinnipiac has moved Pennsylvania from Too Close To Call to Weak Obama, moving Obama’s lead to 223-163 over McCain.

In the meantime, other polls have moved Virginia once again back into the lean Obama column, have moved Ohio into the lean Obama column for the first time in quite some time, and made Florida a tie (oh noes!).  That puts the Electoral Vote count with leaners at Obama 306, McCain 205, Tied 27 - the first time Obama has been over 300 Electoral Votes in quite some time.

New polling has pushed North Carolina from Weak McCain back into the Too Close To Call category, pushing down McCain’s official number down to 158, and increasing the Too Close To Call number up to a record 178 electoral votes, a full third of all Electoral Votes available.

Meanwhile, new polls in Virginia has finally pushed that state from lean McCain to lean Obama, and increasing Obama’s Electoral Count with leaners to 286-252.  However, Obama’s lead in the state stands at 0.1%, so any poll showing McCain ahead should push it back into lean McCain.

Besides the beforementioned New Hampshire, almost all swing states have been either inching towards Obama, or at least inching away from McCain.

The top 4 closest battleground states are now all lean McCain, with New Hampshire with a margin of only 0.5%, Virginia with a margin of 0.7%, Nevada with a margin of 1.6%, and Ohio with a margin of 2.1%.

Indeed, for the first time a quite a while, no Obama state has a margin within 2%, with only two states with a margin within 3%, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  Indiana and Florida also have a margin within 3%, on top of the 4 other states already mentioned.

So, to round it up:

For states within 1%:

McCain 17, Obama 0.

States within 2%:

McCain 22, Obama 0.

States within 3%:

McCain 80, Obama 38.

And while I mark my Too Close To Call margin at 5%, I think 3% may be closer to the margin of where a candidate needs to be if they want to legitimately have a shot at picking off a state on election day.

Note:

I should include that this doesn’t include this morning’s Mason-Dixon Florida poll, since I don’t have info such as number of respondents and margin of error, but it’s quite possible that after that poll, Florida will make it a complete top 5 for McCain as far as closest states go.

I outlined the crazyness in the polling in North Carolina last night, but that crazyness has now apparently extended to Virginia and Florida.

Look at the last 5 polls in Virginia, all conducted between 9/10 and 9/15:

• McCain +9
• Obama +4
• Obama +2
• Tied
• McCain +7

Again, it is statistically inconsistent to have polls both showing a tie or slight Obama lead as well as a significant McCain lead.  It just doesn’t make sense.

This disease has also shown up in Florida where the last 5 polls there, all conducted between 9/11 and 9/17 show:

• McCain +5
• Tied
• Tied
• Tied
• McCain +6

That’s not as bad as North Carolina or even Virginia, but again, the chances that all of these polls are correct seems low.  If we went with the majority for all 3 states, then North Carolina would be within 3% or so, Obama would be ahead in Virginia, and Florida is tied.  But there is not only a poll contradicting these, but several polls doing so.

I’d really like to know how different pollsters manage to get so different results?  Part of it could just be weighting for Likely voters, and the +6 Florida poll is also of “adults” and not registered or likely voters, but the fact that we keep getting such different poll results is crazy.