Status of the Electoral College

Obama pulls yet another Kerry state into his Weak Obama category.  This now pushes Obama’s official tally to 264 Electoral Votes, This once again marks Obama’s highest official number and margin over McCain since July 22nd.  It is also the first time Obama’s lead over McCain is over 100 Electoral Votes since then.

This leaves only 8 Too Close To Call states - all of them Bush 2004 states.

There are also two very good polls in Virginia out today, with Suffolk University giving Obama a 51%-39% lead in the state while Survey USA gives Obama a 53%-43% lead in the state.   This is on top of CNN’s 53%-44% poll out 5 days ago and Insider Advantage’s poll out 6 days ago showing a 6% lead.

The only polls holding Virginia back from probably being a full-fledged lean Obama state are Mason-Dixon and ARG, both of which, remarkably, have shown 3% McCain leads in the state in the past week.  However, a majority of polling shows Obama gaining in the state, if not running away with it now.

Minnesota is the latest state to have a set of highly conflicting polls, and we get yet another one from Survey USA showing McCain ahead in Minnesota by 1%.  I tend to think that this is off, but let’s look at the recent polling from Minnesota:

• Survey USA (9/30-10/1): McCain +1
• CNN (9/28-30): Obama +11
• Quinnipiac (9/14-21): Obama +2
• ARG (9/18-20): Obama +1
• Rasmussen (9/18): Obama +8
• University of Wisconsin (9/14-17): Obama +2

OK, so 4 of 6 polls show a tight race, suggesting that the two polls showing wide leads may be wrong.  However, there is one catch here:  Only the first two polls have been conducted in the past week and since this whole economic crisis really started getting into full gear, so it’s harder to compare the first 2 polls with the last 4 polls.  This is a situation where we’ll just need to wait for another poll to see where the state currently stands.  In any case, the latest poll has pushed Minnesota back to Too Close To Call.

And oh yeah, the last poll to show a McCain lead in the state?  A poll released in March by, you guessed it, Survey USA.  Indeed, Survey USA appears to have a tendency to show Minnesota much closer than other pollsters do for some reason.  In June, Survey USA showed only a 1% Obama lead again when other polls showed leads of 13% and 17%.  In August, Survey USA showed a 2% race with other polls showed a 4% and 10% race.  About the only time after May when Survey USA polls in Minnesota lined up with other polls was in September when most people had it very close.

The last time anyone had more than a 2% lead in the state according to Survey USA was in May, when Obama had a 5% lead, so Survey USA has tended to show this as a near tied race, including when Minnesota was listed as a Strong Obama state around June and July.

Meanwhile, two New Hampshire polls have come out showing Obama ahead by 10% and 12%, so it looks like New Hampshire’s brief flirtation with McCain is over.  These polls weren’t quite enough to push New Hampshire into the Weak Obama category, but we’re now in a situation where, out of the 10 Too Close To Call states, all of the closest 8 states are Bush 2004 states.

Besides the beforementioned New Hampshire, almost all swing states have been either inching towards Obama, or at least inching away from McCain.

The top 4 closest battleground states are now all lean McCain, with New Hampshire with a margin of only 0.5%, Virginia with a margin of 0.7%, Nevada with a margin of 1.6%, and Ohio with a margin of 2.1%.

Indeed, for the first time a quite a while, no Obama state has a margin within 2%, with only two states with a margin within 3%, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  Indiana and Florida also have a margin within 3%, on top of the 4 other states already mentioned.

So, to round it up:

For states within 1%:

McCain 17, Obama 0.

States within 2%:

McCain 22, Obama 0.

States within 3%:

McCain 80, Obama 38.

And while I mark my Too Close To Call margin at 5%, I think 3% may be closer to the margin of where a candidate needs to be if they want to legitimately have a shot at picking off a state on election day.

Note:

I should include that this doesn’t include this morning’s Mason-Dixon Florida poll, since I don’t have info such as number of respondents and margin of error, but it’s quite possible that after that poll, Florida will make it a complete top 5 for McCain as far as closest states go.

Despite the surge towards Obama overall, New Hampshire has been going the opposite direction: the two most recent polls in that state have shown McCain ahead by 3% and 2%.  As a result, remarkably, a state which at one time was a strong Strong Obama state is now lean McCain (though still Too Close To Call).

As a result, the count with leaners is how showing the nightmare scenario: 269-269.