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Nevada

Minnesota moves to Weak Obama; Nevada, Florida flops to lean Obama

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on October 01, 2008
CNN, New Polls, Status Update / No Comments

We’re starting to see the huge move towards Obama in the national polls finally filter down to the state polls now as the second state of the day - Minnesota - goes into Obama’s official count.  That moves the official count to Obama 233, McCain 163, Too Close To Call 142, with states like Michigan and Wisconsin who haven’t had very recent polls which could push those states to Weak Obama if polls come out for them.

In the meantime, more polling has pushed both Nevada and Florida over from lean McCain to lean Obama within the Too Close To Call category.  Now out of the eight 2004 red states in the Too Close To Call category, Obama now holds a lead in five, with Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina still holding for McCain at the moment, though all three have been inching closer themselves recently.

Overall, these flips have now moved the Count with leaners to Obama 338, McCain 200.  That is the most Electoral Votes Obama has held ever, and by extension the fewest McCain has held ever and the biggest lead over McCain ever (previous high for Obama was 320 on July 8th, when McCain had only 218 and it was the only other time the lead was greather than 100 EVs, at 102.)

It is rather difficult to believe that Obama and McCain were tied in the Count with Leaners as recently as a week ago.

Obama still has a ways to go to reach his record in the official count, however.  Obama had 280 electoral votes in his official count on July 22nd.  McCain’s low in the official count was 151 on both July 15th and August 19th.

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Speaking of the shift…

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on September 23, 2008
General / No Comments

Besides the beforementioned New Hampshire, almost all swing states have been either inching towards Obama, or at least inching away from McCain.

The top 4 closest battleground states are now all lean McCain, with New Hampshire with a margin of only 0.5%, Virginia with a margin of 0.7%, Nevada with a margin of 1.6%, and Ohio with a margin of 2.1%.

Indeed, for the first time a quite a while, no Obama state has a margin within 2%, with only two states with a margin within 3%, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  Indiana and Florida also have a margin within 3%, on top of the 4 other states already mentioned.

So, to round it up:

For states within 1%:

McCain 17, Obama 0.

States within 2%:

McCain 22, Obama 0.

States within 3%:

McCain 80, Obama 38.

And while I mark my Too Close To Call margin at 5%, I think 3% may be closer to the margin of where a candidate needs to be if they want to legitimately have a shot at picking off a state on election day.

Note:

I should include that this doesn’t include this morning’s Mason-Dixon Florida poll, since I don’t have info such as number of respondents and margin of error, but it’s quite possible that after that poll, Florida will make it a complete top 5 for McCain as far as closest states go.

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