Status of the Electoral College

We have two sets of polls released this morning, and either Obama has suddenly shot well ahead in some states, but are some of these numbers off?

First, let’s look at the pretty reasonable numbers.  Quinnipiac surveyed Florida, showing Obama up 5%, 49-44%.  That’s a bit higher than most recent polls, but it’s still within the realm of possibility.  Both pollsters also surveyed Pennsylvania, with Quinnipiac showing Obama ahead there by 13% while the Big Ten Network shows him up by 11%.  Again, both of those polls are well within reason.

The Big Ten Network also surveyed Illinois, which shows a 29% lead for Obama, Iowa, whish shows a 13% lead for Obama, Michigan, which shows a 22% lead for Obama - that’s quite large, but plausible given that McCain has completely pulled out of the state now - and Wisconsin with a 13% lead.  All of those are at least inline with current polls or plausible given the situation.

Now, I’m separating out Ohio.  At first I thought the Ohio numbers - Quinnipiac showing Obama up by 14% and Big Ten showing Obama up by 12% - were both wrong.  But then when I looked at the recent Ohio numbers, Suffolk also had a recent poll showing Obama up 9%.  the problem is that several other recent polls show numbers such as Obama by 4%, McCain by 2%, and McCain by 1%.

So what’s going on here?  It looks like we’re now having the same problem in Ohio as we’ve had in the past in both Florida and North Carolina: two different sets of likely voter models, one of which is very favorable to McCain and one of which is very favorable to Obama.  As a result, we have one grouping of three polls where the results range from +9 to +14 for Obama, and another grouping of three polls where the range is from +2 McCain to +4 Obama.  Which is right?  There really isn’t any good way to know.  And we have reputable pollsters in each group as well.

My hunch is to actually agree with the polls showing a near-tied race.  The first reason is because Quinnipiac has tended to show larger margins for Obama than other pollsters anyway.  The second reason is that, at least this time around, the Big Ten polls appear to be greatly favoring Obama as well, as you’ll see in a second.

Next, on to the states where the polling definitely seems off, and both of these are Big Ten polls.  There are a couple of states which seem just way off when looking at their numbers.

This poll shows Obama up 19% in Minnesota.  This lead just seems way too big.  Most polls in the state show the lead to be between about 6 and 12%.  The Star Tribune at the start of the month was really the only recent poll showing such a margin, and their more recent numbers have narrowed it down to a more realistic margin.

Second, this poll shows Obama up 10% in Indiana.  Now, having a poll showing Obama ahead in Indiana isn’t unheard of: the most recent PPP poll showed Obama up by 2% there.  But by and large, most polls in the state have shown a consistent McCain lead in the state, not an Obama one, to say nothing about a double-digit Obama lead.

So I think Quinnipiac is either right or at least plausible on 2 out of 3 polls, but Big Ten blows it on at least 2 and as many as 4 of their 8 polls.  Since I don’t make judgement calls about what polls I stick into the database, these are still going in, but I thought I would express my thoughts about these polls as I do.

We’re starting to see the huge move towards Obama in the national polls finally filter down to the state polls now as the second state of the day - Minnesota - goes into Obama’s official count.  That moves the official count to Obama 233, McCain 163, Too Close To Call 142, with states like Michigan and Wisconsin who haven’t had very recent polls which could push those states to Weak Obama if polls come out for them.

In the meantime, more polling has pushed both Nevada and Florida over from lean McCain to lean Obama within the Too Close To Call category.  Now out of the eight 2004 red states in the Too Close To Call category, Obama now holds a lead in five, with Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina still holding for McCain at the moment, though all three have been inching closer themselves recently.

Overall, these flips have now moved the Count with leaners to Obama 338, McCain 200.  That is the most Electoral Votes Obama has held ever, and by extension the fewest McCain has held ever and the biggest lead over McCain ever (previous high for Obama was 320 on July 8th, when McCain had only 218 and it was the only other time the lead was greather than 100 EVs, at 102.)

It is rather difficult to believe that Obama and McCain were tied in the Count with Leaners as recently as a week ago.

Obama still has a ways to go to reach his record in the official count, however.  Obama had 280 electoral votes in his official count on July 22nd.  McCain’s low in the official count was 151 on both July 15th and August 19th.

In what is the first in probably a string of states which will start moving more decisively towards Obama pretty soon, some good polling from Quinnipiac has moved Pennsylvania from Too Close To Call to Weak Obama, moving Obama’s lead to 223-163 over McCain.

In the meantime, other polls have moved Virginia once again back into the lean Obama column, have moved Ohio into the lean Obama column for the first time in quite some time, and made Florida a tie (oh noes!).  That puts the Electoral Vote count with leaners at Obama 306, McCain 205, Tied 27 - the first time Obama has been over 300 Electoral Votes in quite some time.

Besides the beforementioned New Hampshire, almost all swing states have been either inching towards Obama, or at least inching away from McCain.

The top 4 closest battleground states are now all lean McCain, with New Hampshire with a margin of only 0.5%, Virginia with a margin of 0.7%, Nevada with a margin of 1.6%, and Ohio with a margin of 2.1%.

Indeed, for the first time a quite a while, no Obama state has a margin within 2%, with only two states with a margin within 3%, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  Indiana and Florida also have a margin within 3%, on top of the 4 other states already mentioned.

So, to round it up:

For states within 1%:

McCain 17, Obama 0.

States within 2%:

McCain 22, Obama 0.

States within 3%:

McCain 80, Obama 38.

And while I mark my Too Close To Call margin at 5%, I think 3% may be closer to the margin of where a candidate needs to be if they want to legitimately have a shot at picking off a state on election day.

Note:

I should include that this doesn’t include this morning’s Mason-Dixon Florida poll, since I don’t have info such as number of respondents and margin of error, but it’s quite possible that after that poll, Florida will make it a complete top 5 for McCain as far as closest states go.

I outlined the crazyness in the polling in North Carolina last night, but that crazyness has now apparently extended to Virginia and Florida.

Look at the last 5 polls in Virginia, all conducted between 9/10 and 9/15:

• McCain +9
• Obama +4
• Obama +2
• Tied
• McCain +7

Again, it is statistically inconsistent to have polls both showing a tie or slight Obama lead as well as a significant McCain lead.  It just doesn’t make sense.

This disease has also shown up in Florida where the last 5 polls there, all conducted between 9/11 and 9/17 show:

• McCain +5
• Tied
• Tied
• Tied
• McCain +6

That’s not as bad as North Carolina or even Virginia, but again, the chances that all of these polls are correct seems low.  If we went with the majority for all 3 states, then North Carolina would be within 3% or so, Obama would be ahead in Virginia, and Florida is tied.  But there is not only a poll contradicting these, but several polls doing so.

I’d really like to know how different pollsters manage to get so different results?  Part of it could just be weighting for Likely voters, and the +6 Florida poll is also of “adults” and not registered or likely voters, but the fact that we keep getting such different poll results is crazy.

Five new CNN polls show possible movement back towards Obama in several states, as Obama has his first tie or lead in Florida in 5 polls, his first lead in Ohio in 9 polls, and the 3rd poll within 4% in North Carolina in the past 6 (as compared to the other three which all give McCain double-digit leads.  What’s going on in North Carolina?)

Despite general movement towards Obama, McCain’s numbers are the ones which improved on the official board as his 6% lead in Indiana was just enough to move it from Too Close to Call to Weak McCain.  No other states changed status, however.

We have so many polls coming out now that it is quite difficult for any single poll to switch a state which, of course, is good since it’s better to have a broad sample of several polls instead of a situation where a single outliar poll pushes states like Illinois or Louisiana into “Weak” territory when they probably have no business being there.

I should note (and I should add this to the Methodology page sometime) that CNN did release results for both Obama vs. McCain head-to-head as well as polls including third parties.  Obama either had the same margin or improved in every state when 3rd parties were included, going so far as going from a tie in Florida with the head-to-head to being 4% ahead with 3rd parties.

My policy has been that if a polling agency releases a poll where there is one with 3rd parties and one without, I take the straight head-to-head because of my belief that most polls overstate support for 3rd party candidates.  Of course, if they only offer a poll which includes 3rd parties, I’ll use it, but I don’t record the results for the 3rd party candidates.