Status of the Electoral College

That’s right, with the addition of Colorado to the club of states officially counted for Obama, he has now reached 273 Electoral Votes where he leads by at least 5%.

The last time Obama had over 270 Electoral Votes in his official count was on July 22nd when he had 280 vs. McCain’s 154.  This means that not only has the count with leaners surpassed Obama’s high that he reached over the summer, but that the official count has nearly matched Obama’s high from over the summer as well.

This is an amazing turn around from a mere month ago when McCain was leading the official count after the Republican Convention and at one point tied up the count including leaners.

The change was thanks to a pair of Quinnipiac polls out which also pushed Michigan and Wisconsin to the brink of switching to Strong Obama states.

Overall, this leaves 9 Too Close To Call states left worth 110 Electoral Votes.  Not only are there not enough Too Close To Call states for McCain to win the election, even if he won them all, but he trails in 6 of the 9 states, with one - North Carolina - tied.  Indeed, McCain trails by at least 2% in states accounting for 65 of the category’s 110 Electoral Votes.

Besides the beforementioned New Hampshire, almost all swing states have been either inching towards Obama, or at least inching away from McCain.

The top 4 closest battleground states are now all lean McCain, with New Hampshire with a margin of only 0.5%, Virginia with a margin of 0.7%, Nevada with a margin of 1.6%, and Ohio with a margin of 2.1%.

Indeed, for the first time a quite a while, no Obama state has a margin within 2%, with only two states with a margin within 3%, Colorado and Pennsylvania.  Indiana and Florida also have a margin within 3%, on top of the 4 other states already mentioned.

So, to round it up:

For states within 1%:

McCain 17, Obama 0.

States within 2%:

McCain 22, Obama 0.

States within 3%:

McCain 80, Obama 38.

And while I mark my Too Close To Call margin at 5%, I think 3% may be closer to the margin of where a candidate needs to be if they want to legitimately have a shot at picking off a state on election day.

Note:

I should include that this doesn’t include this morning’s Mason-Dixon Florida poll, since I don’t have info such as number of respondents and margin of error, but it’s quite possible that after that poll, Florida will make it a complete top 5 for McCain as far as closest states go.