Status of the Electoral College

Again, some of these states right on the border can flip and flop between a status (more on that in a second), but for the time being, Wisconsin has moved into Strong Obama territory (with Michigan and Pennsylvania right on it’s heels), putting Obama back over 200 “strong” Electoral Votes for the first time since July 8th and marking the most “strong” electoral votes he has ever held at 207.

Another state that has flopped is Virginia, back down to Too Close To Call thanks to the Mason-Dixon poll showing him on up only 2%.  As is the case with many Mason-Dixon polls this year, this is the first time Obama has ever held a lead in this state with them, so even though it looks close, it’s actually a 5% improvement for Obama since earlier in the month.

West Virginia moved back to the Weak McCain category today, where it probably should have been all along if it wasn’t for the flukey ARG poll from a while back.  This moves McCain’s total up to 160, and lowers the Too Close To Call pool even further, down to 92 Electoral Votes.

All remaining Too Close To Call states are within 2.3%, marking a rather signficant gap between the states still at play and the states which seem to be in each candidate’s pockets.

That’s right, with the addition of Colorado to the club of states officially counted for Obama, he has now reached 273 Electoral Votes where he leads by at least 5%.

The last time Obama had over 270 Electoral Votes in his official count was on July 22nd when he had 280 vs. McCain’s 154.  This means that not only has the count with leaners surpassed Obama’s high that he reached over the summer, but that the official count has nearly matched Obama’s high from over the summer as well.

This is an amazing turn around from a mere month ago when McCain was leading the official count after the Republican Convention and at one point tied up the count including leaners.

The change was thanks to a pair of Quinnipiac polls out which also pushed Michigan and Wisconsin to the brink of switching to Strong Obama states.

Overall, this leaves 9 Too Close To Call states left worth 110 Electoral Votes.  Not only are there not enough Too Close To Call states for McCain to win the election, even if he won them all, but he trails in 6 of the 9 states, with one - North Carolina - tied.  Indeed, McCain trails by at least 2% in states accounting for 65 of the category’s 110 Electoral Votes.

Over the summer, Georgia was a deep south state which, while never really a true toss-up, was always close enough to put it in the Weak McCain column.  Then when McCain made his charge in the early fall, Georgia fell strongly in the Strong McCain column and looked lost to Obama.

However, recently, Georgia is once again looking more and more vulnerable with McCain.  The last 5 polls released in the state, all in the past week, have shown McCain leads of 6, 7, 7, 8 and 9 - enough to push it back down into the Weak McCain category.  That’s opposed to the polls before that which showed leads of 8, 11, 16, 18, and 21.  Is McCain still likely to win Georgia?  Yeah, probably so at this case, but given the news of very high African-American turnout in early voting in Georgia, Georgia is suddenly a state that McCain may want to worry about and try to mount some sort of get out the vote effort on Election Day.  If turnout on election day mirrors turnout in early voting, McCain’s win in Georgia may be in serious jeopardy.

While we’ve gotten many polls for lean Obama, Weak Obama, and lean McCain states, we haven’t had a lot of polling for Weak McCain states or either candidate’s strong states.  It’s been a week since we’ve had a poll in Montana.  It’s been two weeks since we’ve had a poll in West Virginia.  And we don’t have current data for a whole host of McCai states which had flirted with Weak McCain or even Too Close To Call status earlier in the year such as the Dakotas, Arizona, South Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Louisiana (current polling at this point being considered “being conducted in the past week or so”).

You can take a peak at the overview page and see the last time a poll was conducted for many of these states, and despite almost being a third of the way through October already, many haven’t had polls since the end of September - back when McCain was doing much better.

Obama pulls yet another Kerry state into his Weak Obama category.  This now pushes Obama’s official tally to 264 Electoral Votes, This once again marks Obama’s highest official number and margin over McCain since July 22nd.  It is also the first time Obama’s lead over McCain is over 100 Electoral Votes since then.

This leaves only 8 Too Close To Call states - all of them Bush 2004 states.

There are also two very good polls in Virginia out today, with Suffolk University giving Obama a 51%-39% lead in the state while Survey USA gives Obama a 53%-43% lead in the state.   This is on top of CNN’s 53%-44% poll out 5 days ago and Insider Advantage’s poll out 6 days ago showing a 6% lead.

The only polls holding Virginia back from probably being a full-fledged lean Obama state are Mason-Dixon and ARG, both of which, remarkably, have shown 3% McCain leads in the state in the past week.  However, a majority of polling shows Obama gaining in the state, if not running away with it now.

Thanks to a probably over optimsitic Minnesota Star-Tribune poll showing Obama 18% ahead (and Franken 9% ahead).  Even if this poll were off by 10% - over 2.5% more than the margin of error on both candidate’s numbers - Obama would still be up by 8%, so unless this is just a whopper of a poll, it still looks good for Obama.  (I should note that the Star Tribune was within 2% in 2004 in it’s final poll, so it has a reasonable record).

This puts Obama’s total back to 260, and once again makes New Hampshire the only Kerry state left in the Too Close To Call category - and it’s the closest one to leaving it as well.

Update

Looking at the polling history, the biggest problem with this poll probably isn’t overestimating Obama’s number as it is underestimating McCain’s.  McCain only gets 37% in this poll.  He hasn’t been under 40% in my poll in the state since the start of August and wasn’t in numerous polls at the same time since mid-summer - around June and July.  His numbers more recently averaged around 45%.

Now, this could signify two things: the poll just oversampled undecideds who lean McCain but didn’t want to say they supported him, or the bottom has fallen out from under McCain in the state.

Remember I said McCain’s numbers hadn’t been that low in the state since the mid-summer?  Well guess what the current political situation feels most like?  The mid-summer, when Obama held a clear and indisputable lead over McCain.  I would be loathe to say that McCain has actually fallen that much without another poll to confirm it - and we’ve had two recent polls come out before this showing his support in the state as 47% and 43% - but if we really have gone back to where we were over the summer - or better - McCain dropping under 40% might be real.

As for Obama’s number of 55%, it’s a little high, but consistent with CNN’s poll which gave Obama 54% and Rasmussen’s poll which gave him 52%.  The last time that many polls gave Obama such a high number is such a condensed time period?  Mid-summer.

Nate over at FiveThirtyEight notes that the partisan breakdown in the poll is +16 for Democrats. with republicans having only 26%.  But GOP identification in the Survey USA poll was only 4% better at 30%.  In fact, those two polls, even though their results are 19% apart, have a net party ID difference of 9%.  I’m not sure what accounts for the other 10% of difference, but I have noted before that Survey USA has seemed to tilt towards McCain in Minnesota for some reason.

Even if the margin really is “somewhere in between” this poll and the Survey USA number - that’s still a 9% to 10% lead for Obama.  If a 5% lead in Michigan was enough for McCain to abandon it’s 17 Electoral Votes, I don’t see how he can justify going after Minnesota’s 10 with when Obama has twice the lead.

Minnesota is the latest state to have a set of highly conflicting polls, and we get yet another one from Survey USA showing McCain ahead in Minnesota by 1%.  I tend to think that this is off, but let’s look at the recent polling from Minnesota:

• Survey USA (9/30-10/1): McCain +1
• CNN (9/28-30): Obama +11
• Quinnipiac (9/14-21): Obama +2
• ARG (9/18-20): Obama +1
• Rasmussen (9/18): Obama +8
• University of Wisconsin (9/14-17): Obama +2

OK, so 4 of 6 polls show a tight race, suggesting that the two polls showing wide leads may be wrong.  However, there is one catch here:  Only the first two polls have been conducted in the past week and since this whole economic crisis really started getting into full gear, so it’s harder to compare the first 2 polls with the last 4 polls.  This is a situation where we’ll just need to wait for another poll to see where the state currently stands.  In any case, the latest poll has pushed Minnesota back to Too Close To Call.

And oh yeah, the last poll to show a McCain lead in the state?  A poll released in March by, you guessed it, Survey USA.  Indeed, Survey USA appears to have a tendency to show Minnesota much closer than other pollsters do for some reason.  In June, Survey USA showed only a 1% Obama lead again when other polls showed leads of 13% and 17%.  In August, Survey USA showed a 2% race with other polls showed a 4% and 10% race.  About the only time after May when Survey USA polls in Minnesota lined up with other polls was in September when most people had it very close.

The last time anyone had more than a 2% lead in the state according to Survey USA was in May, when Obama had a 5% lead, so Survey USA has tended to show this as a near tied race, including when Minnesota was listed as a Strong Obama state around June and July.

Meanwhile, two New Hampshire polls have come out showing Obama ahead by 10% and 12%, so it looks like New Hampshire’s brief flirtation with McCain is over.  These polls weren’t quite enough to push New Hampshire into the Weak Obama category, but we’re now in a situation where, out of the 10 Too Close To Call states, all of the closest 8 states are Bush 2004 states.

Michigan has now become the 4th state in 2 days to switch from Too Close To Call to Weak Obama, extending Obama’s official lead over McCain to 260-163 with 115 Too Close to Call.

This constitutes the most Electoral Votes in Obama’s total, the biggest lead Obama’s had over McCain, and the fewest Too Close To Call Electoral Votes since July 22nd when the totals were Obama 280, McCain 154, Too Close To Call 104.

This is effectively the best position Obama has been in since the 3 to 4 weeks which marked his peak after clinching the Democratic Nomination in July.

Since yesterday, 58 Electoral Votes have switched to the Obama column.  This now leaves New Hampshire as the only Kerry state left on the Too Close To Call list.  There are a total of 9 states with 115 Electoral Votes remaining in the Too Close To Call list.

We have a full trio of states being pushed into the Weak Obama column today as Wisconsin moves from the Too Close To Call category to Weak Obama.  Today alone Obama’s count has risen from 202 Electoral Votes to 243 Electoral Votes - a gain of 41 votes and Obama’s biggest total since September 2nd, at the height of the Democratic Convention bounce.

This is also the biggest lead Obama has had in the official count since he had an 82 Electoral Vote lead on August 19th.

This continues a trend of lean Obama states becoming Weak Obama states and lean McCain states becoming lean Obama states, as Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and Virginia have already done in the past couple of days.

Iowa has also moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

This reduced the Too Close To Call category to 10 states and 132 Electoral Votes - with 8 of those states and 111 of those Electoral Votes going for Bush in 2004.  Only New Hampshire and Michigan are Kerry states that remain Too Close To Call, and the only reason Michigan is probably still on the list is because no poll has been released there for close to a week.  New Hampshire also has not had any new polls for the same period of time.

We’re starting to see the huge move towards Obama in the national polls finally filter down to the state polls now as the second state of the day - Minnesota - goes into Obama’s official count.  That moves the official count to Obama 233, McCain 163, Too Close To Call 142, with states like Michigan and Wisconsin who haven’t had very recent polls which could push those states to Weak Obama if polls come out for them.

In the meantime, more polling has pushed both Nevada and Florida over from lean McCain to lean Obama within the Too Close To Call category.  Now out of the eight 2004 red states in the Too Close To Call category, Obama now holds a lead in five, with Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina still holding for McCain at the moment, though all three have been inching closer themselves recently.

Overall, these flips have now moved the Count with leaners to Obama 338, McCain 200.  That is the most Electoral Votes Obama has held ever, and by extension the fewest McCain has held ever and the biggest lead over McCain ever (previous high for Obama was 320 on July 8th, when McCain had only 218 and it was the only other time the lead was greather than 100 EVs, at 102.)

It is rather difficult to believe that Obama and McCain were tied in the Count with Leaners as recently as a week ago.

Obama still has a ways to go to reach his record in the official count, however.  Obama had 280 electoral votes in his official count on July 22nd.  McCain’s low in the official count was 151 on both July 15th and August 19th.