Status of the Electoral College

Thanks to some new polls today by the Indianapolis Star and Survey USA, we have two states which have changed status, both in favor of Obama.

First, Indiana has flipped back to being Too Close To Call, taking 11 EVs away from McCain’s total.  In the meantime, a new Survey USA poll has pushed New Mexico back into the “Weak Obama” category, giving Obama 5 EVs, for a total swing of 16 Electoral Votes, currently giving Obama a 7 Electoral Vote lead.

American Research Group has released their first round of state polling, and it’s somewhat a mixed bag for Obama.

First off, the results seemed skewed a bit towards McCain overall, with North Carolina being +11, Ohio being +6, and Illinois of all places being only Obama +6, enough to push move it from Strong Obama to Weak Obama, just because there aren’t many polls there.

Two McCain states caught my eye themost, though:

The first was Montana, which ARG gives McCain by only 2%, and which puts it in line with polls pre-convention.  This puts into question whether Rasmussen’s post-convention poll was an outlier or not.  We’ll probably need yet another poll, preferably from a third polling company, to find out.  For the time being, Montana is back to Weak McCain from Strong McCain.

The second was West Virginia which has now had two recent polls showing it to be only +5 and +4 for McCain, pushing it unbelievably into the Too Close To Call category.  Can we actually call West Virginia a battleground state now?  This

Louisiana also seemed closer than one would expect, only +7 for McCain, but I kind of see that as McCain’s Illinois - a poll showing a state to be much closer than I actually think it is.  I won’t actually believe Louisiana to be that close until another poll confirms it.  Nevertheless, like Ilinois, due to sparse polling, Louisiana moves from Strong McCain to Lean McCain.

Texas also moves from Weak McCain to Strong McCain, a move I’ve kind of been expecting for a while.