Another light weekend day today, with only 18 polls. But tightening is undeniably happening across the board now.
New Polls Added Today
Colorado
Mason-Dixon - Obama 49 (44), McCain 44 (44) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (9/29-10/1)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 50.8% | 50.9% |  |
50.2% |  |
||
| McCain: | 44.3% | 44.3% | – | 44.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 6.5% | 6.6% | |
5.7% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
This poll agrees with a few polls recently, but the bulk of the polls show a bit wider lead than this. However, the trend is all in Obama’s favor for Mason-Dixon.
Illinois
Rasmussen - Obama 60 (56), McCain 38 (39) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 1 (10/13)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 58.7% | 58% | |
58% | |
||
| McCain: | 35.8% | 34.4% | |
34.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 22.9% | 23.6% | |
23.6% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
Wouldn’t you rather have more polls of Pennsylvania than polls of Illinois? Yeah, so would I.
Kentucky
Survey USA - McCain 56 (54), Obama 40 (41) | 616 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - Nov. 1 (10/18-10/20)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 54.2% | 53.8% | |
53.6% | |
||
| Obama: | 40.8% | 41% | |
40.6% | |
||
| Margin: | 13.4% | 12.8% | |
13% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain | ||||||
This is mostly float in the poll, probably. We’re still looking at a Kentucky margin of about 13%.
Maine
Rasmussen - Obama 56 (51), McCain 43 (46) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 1 (Oct. 2)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 54.1% | 53.1% | |
53.1% | |
||
| McCain: | 40.1% | 38.4% | |
38.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 14% | 14.7% | |
14.7% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
There wasn’t any news about Maine’s 2nd Congressional District’s Electoral Vote, which republicans will sometimes target, but with a margin this large, it’s likely that it is pretty safe as well.
Michigan
Selzer & Co. - Obama 53 (51), McCain 37 (38) | 616 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31 (9/22-9/24)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 52.4% | 52.3% | |
51.8% | |
||
| McCain: | 40% | 40.4% | |
39.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 12.4% | 11.9% | |
12.4% | – | ||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
And the average for Michigan is exactly where it was last Monday. Appears like this state is stable with about a 12% lead for Obama.
Minnesota
Star Tribune - Obama 53 (52), McCain 42 (41) | 993 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/16-10/17)
Survey USA - Obama 49 (50), McCain 46 (44) | 669 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 (10/16-10/18)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 52.2% | 52.4% | |
51% | |
||
| McCain: | 41% | 40.3% | |
40.8% | |
||
| Margin: | 11.2% | 12.1% | |
10.2% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
Obama’s lead in Minnesota appears to have solidified to between 10% and 12%. The presidential race in Minnesota shouldn’t give us much excitement on Tuesday.
A note on the Survey USA poll - they’ve tended to strongly favor McCain in Minnesota, for some reason. Their last poll was +6, and the last poll to show Obama behind in the state was a Survey USA poll from the start of the month. No poll has shown a margin this close since ARG showed a 1% race 16 polls ago.
Missouri
Mason-Dixon - McCain 47 (46), Obama 46 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/22-10/12)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 47.5% | 47.7% | |
47.7% | |
||
| McCain: | 47.4% | 47.4% | – | 46.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
1.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
If it’s possible, Missouri i now even tighter than Indiana, as McCain has virtually entirely chipped away at Obama’s lead from last Monday.
Nevada
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (47), McCain 43 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/8-10/9)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 49.4% | 49.7% | |
48.5% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.2% | 44.4% | |
45.6% | |
||
| Margin: | 5.2% | 5.3% | |
2.9% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
What? A somewhat normal poll from Mason-Dixon? Yes, but it’s still a tad below normal. The thing Obama can like about this poll is that the trend is in his favor (or more correctly, McCain is losing ground).
New Mexico
Albuquerque Journal - Obama 51 (45), McCain 43 (40) | 600 LV - 4% | 10/28-10/30 (9/29-10/2)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 53.1% | 53.7% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 43.3% | 43.3% | – | 43.2% | |
||
| Margin: | 9.8% | 10.4% | |
8.1% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
New Mexico is once again normalizing in the Weak Obama category after the outlier from earlier in the week. This remains around an 8% race.
North Carolina
Mason-Dixon - McCain 49 (47), Obama 46 (47) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/23-10/25)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 47.9% | 48% | |
48.2% | |
||
| McCain: | 46.3% | 46.1% | |
46.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 1.6% | 1.9% | |
1.3% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
This is bad news for Obama if true. Even if you want to reduce the margin because of Mason-Dixon’s apparent GOP bias, the trend is still in McCain’s direction. Obama still leads by 1.6% in the average. However, this is the only poll Obama is trailing in the last 7, though he is tied in another.
Ohio
Mason-Dixon - McCain 47 (46), Obama 45 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/16-10/17)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 49% | 49.3% | |
48.9% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.2% | 44% | |
44.7% | |
||
| Margin: | 4.8% | 5.3% | |
4.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Is this yet another wacky Mason-Dixon poll? It sure looks like it. This is the first Ohio poll to have Obama trailing in 13 polls when R-leaning Strategic Vision had Obama trailing by 3 about a week ago. It’s also Obama’s lowest number since then as well.
IIn any case, this poll throws Ohio back into the Too Close To Call category.
Pennsylvania
PPP - Obama 53, McCain 45 | 1,529 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Rasmussen - Obama 52 (51), McCain 46 (45) | 700 LV - 4% | Nov. 1 (10/30)
Survey USA - Obama 51 (53), McCain 44 (41) | 700 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/21-10/22)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.7% | 51.7% | – | 51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 42.8% | 42.3% | |
41.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 8.9% | 9.4% | |
9.9% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
Another trio of close Pennsylvania polls, though in Rasmussen’s case the trend is in favor of Obama from Sunday, and nearly identical to the Rasmussen poll on Thursday, but is down from +13% from the start of the month. Obama has now lost nearly a full percent in the average since Monday.
The last eight polls (from different pollsters) in the state now average a 51.5% to 43.9% lead - a margin of 7.6%. It should also be noted that McCain does not get above 46 in any of those eight polls, while Obama’s low is 47%, he’s over 50% in 6 of those 8 polls (including 5 in a row), and the closest margin is still 4%.
Virginia
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (47), McCain 44 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/20-10/21)
PPP - Obama 52 (52), McCain 46 (43) | 1,557 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/21-10/23)
Survey USA - Obama 50 (52), McCain 46 (43) | 672 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 (10/25-10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 50.2% | 50.4% | |
50.6% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.4% | 44% | |
44.4% | – | ||
| Margin: | 5.8% | 6.4% | |
6.2% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
Obama has lost the bump he got in the middle of the week and infact he has now lost ground since last Monday. Five of the last ten polls have showed an Obama lead of 3% or 4%. Virginia was looking like a sure thing earlier this week, but it’s now not so much of a sure thing.
If McCain keeps Virginia and were able to pick off an apparently narrowing Pennsylvania, odds are that he will win the election.
Overall Thoughts
It appears that McCain has generally tigthened things by 2% or so across the board, with increased tightening in Pennsylvania and Virginia in the past week (even if the average doesn’t quite show it yet).
Obama appears to have lost his grip on Indiana and Missouri this past week, while North Carolina is looking less and less certain by the day. And as I noted, Virginia and Pennsylvania are tightening, though Pennsylvania especially is still a rather healthy lead (I’m not so sure anymore in Virginia).
Luckily for Obama, states like Colorado and Ohio seem to be resistent to this tigthening, at least so far (though Mason-Dixon disagrees in Ohio). All of this doesn’t change the fact that McCain either needs to sweep all Bush states except Iowa and New Mexico, or to pull off the shocker in Pennsylvania.
