We may get a smattering of polls late late tonight or early tomorrow, but for the most, part this is it. Tonight, we had 45 more polls (not as many as I thought or feared). That brings the total of polls in the database up to 1,471 with interviews now with over 1 million people.
Tomorrow morning I’ll put together a compilation of polls from the past week and my final predictions.
New Polls Added Today
Alaska
Dittman - McCain 56, Obama 37 | 489 LV - 4.8% | Oct. 24 - 29
Hays Research - McCain 47 (40), Obama 44 (45) | 500 Adults - 4.9% | Nov. 2 (8/6-8/7)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 53.7% | 56.4% |  |
55% | |
||
| Obama: | 40.8% | 39.8% |  |
39.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 12.9% | 16.6% | |
15.5% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain | ||||||
I don’t for one minute believe the Hays Research poll. First off, the sample size is as low as you can go as far as my minimum requirements. Second, it’s a poll of adults, not registered voters, to say nothing of likely voters. Third, their last poll - and granted it was before Palin was selected as Vice President - had Obama up 5% in the state, so it’s still a +8 swing in favor of McCain.
Luckily, we had the 2nd poll which probably overestimated McCain’s margin in the state, so instead of dragging down the average by about 5% from yestrday as the Hays poll did by itself, the second poll was able to reclaim at least 1% of that. This is still a race which is closer to 15% than 13%, though.
Colorado
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (50), McCain 47 (46) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 50.8% | 50.8% | – | 50.2% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.5% | 44.3% | |
44.5% | – | ||
| Margin: | 6.3% | 6.5% | |
5.7% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
I guess the main thing to take away from Rasmussen is that they’ve shown no change in the state from a week ago, aside from each candidate splitting newly decided undecideds. This is still, on average, about a 6% race and the Hispanic vote will basically have to stay home for Obama to lose this state.
Florida
Datamar - McCain 48 (47), Obama 47 (47) | 657 LV - 3.8% | Nov. 1 - 2 (10/29-10/30)
PPP - Obama 50 (48), McCain 48 (47) | 1,717 LV - 2.4% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/16-10/19)
Rasmussen - McCain 50 (47), Obama 49 (51) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Strategic Vision - Obama 49 (46), McCain 47 (48) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/20-10/22)
Quinnipiac - Obama 47 (47), McCain 45 (45) | 1,773 LV - 2.3% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 (10/22-10/26)
Zogby - Obama 48 (47), McCain 46 (47) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (Oct. 23 - 26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 48.1% | 48% | |
48.1% | – | ||
| McCain: | 46% | 45.5% | |
45.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 2.1% | 2.5% | |
2.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Six polls and four of them showing it a 2% race for Obama and the other two showing it as a 1% race for McCain. Before today, McCain hadn’t really led in a poll in the state for about 2 weeks, so that would suggest a 1% Obama loss is almost a worst case scenario, and I haven’t even gotten into margin of error or the ground game yet.
The Strategic Vision poll is also the poll that put us over 1 million respondents.
Georgia
Insider Advantage - McCain 48 (48), Obama 47 (47) | 512 LV - 4% | Nov. 2 (10/27)
PPP - McCain 50, Obama 48 | 1,253 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Strategic Vision - McCain 50 (51), Obama 46 (45) | 600 LV - 3% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/20-10/22)
Survey USA - McCain 52 (51), Obama 45 (43) | 683 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/11-10/12)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 50.1% | 49.9% | |
49.9% | |
||
| Obama: | 45.6% | 45.2% | |
44.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 4.5% | 4.7% | |
5.4% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
A tad more tightening, but is it enough for an Obama ground game to overcome? It’s going to be very difficult, even with all the early votes banked.
Indiana
PPP - Obama 49 (48), McCain 48 (46) | 2,634 LV - 1.9% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/18-10/19)
Zogby - McCain 49 (50), Obama 44 (44) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 47.3% | 47% | |
46.3% | |
||
| Obama: | 46.7% | 46.8% | |
47% | |
||
| Margin: | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
-0.7% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
McCain now leads in Indiana by as much as Obama did last Monday. That’s still not a very big lead - only 0.6% - but I’m sure Obama wishes he was at least leading rather than behind. It seems like the momentum is in McCain’s favor, but he apparently has zero ground game in the state, while Obama has a significant one, and a margin this small could be switched by a good ground game. Nevertheless, Obama doesn’t have the momentum in this state.
Maine
Survey USA - Obama 58 (54), McCain 38 (39) | 674 LV - 3.8% | Nov. 1 (10/19-10/20)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 55.2% | 54.1% | |
53.1% | |
||
| McCain: | 39.6% | 40.1% | |
38.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 15.6% | 14% | |
14.7% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
Obama has Maine in the bag.
Michigan
Mitchell Research - Obama 54, Obama 40 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 30
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 52.6% | 52.4% |  |
51.8% | |
||
| McCain: | 40% | 40% | – | 39.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 12.6% | 12.4% | |
12.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
Remember when Michigan used to be close? Yeah, me neither.
Missouri
PPP - Obama 49 (48), McCain 49 (46) | 1,343 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/11-10/12)
Rasmussen - Obama 49 (48), McCain 49 (47) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Survey USA - Obama 48 (48), McCain 48 (48) | 674 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/25-10/26)
Zogby - Obama 47 (48), McCain 46 (46) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov .2 (Oct. 23 - 26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 47.8% | 47.5% | |
47.7% | |
||
| McCain: | 47.6% | 47.4% | |
46.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
1.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Missouri is kind of like Indiana, except Obama started with a little bigger lead in the state. Indiana flipped by 1.3% while Missouri flipped by 1%, and Obama now holds only a 0.2% lead. Again, like Indiana, a superior ground game could put the state away, but Obama is working against the momentum in this state.
Montana
PPP - Obama 48, McCain 47 | 2,734 LV - 1.9% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 48.1% | 48.2% | |
46.8% | |
||
| Obama: | 45.4% | 44.8% | |
44.1% | |
||
| Margin: | 2.7% | 3.4% | |
2.7% | – | ||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
This Montana poll is amazing in quite a few ways. First, and most obviously, it shows Obama ahead, and a 5% third party vote would be hardly unexpected in the state. Second…look at that sample. I’m not sure I’ve seen a poll with 2,700 people in it. That’s 0.3% of the entire population of the state. That’d be like doing a poll of the US with about 900,000 people in it. Now, of course, statistically speaking, a poll with 2,700 Montanans is just as reliable as a poll of 2,700 Americans overall, but I just wanted to show how big the sample was im comparison to the population of the state.
Don’t be surprised if we have to wait a while for Montana to come in tomorrow night.
Nevada
PPP - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 1,243 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Zogby - Obama 51 (48), McCain 43 (44) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 49.7% | 49.4% | |
48.5% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.4% | 44.2% | |
45.6% | |
||
| Margin: | 5.3% | 5.2% | |
2.9% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
Nevada shot up from just below a 3% lead to just above a 5% lead and has pretty much stayed there since. This state is actually quite similar to Colorado now in it’s margin, which is not good news for McCain.
New Hampshire
UNH - Obama 53 (54), McCain 41 (36) | 831 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/27-10/29)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 52.2% | 52.1% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 41.4% | 41.3% | |
42.7% |  |
||
| Margin: | 10.8% | 10.8% | – | 8.6% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
This poll has tightened some, but it’s still a double digit lead for Obama in this once-toss-up state.
New Jersey
Rasmussen - Obama 57 (50), McCain 42 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 2 (10/7)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 54% | 53.6% | |
54.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 38.5% | 38% | |
38.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 15.5% | 15.6% | |
15.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
Because we’re all sitting on the edge of our seats waiting to see how New Jersey turns out.
North Carolina
PPP - Obama 50 (49), McCain 49 (48) | 2,100 LV - 2.1% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/25-10/26)
Rasmussen - McCain 50 (48), Obama 49 (50) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Survey USA - McCain 49 (47), Obama 48 (47) | 682 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/18-10/20)
Zogby - McCain 49 (46), Obama 48 (50) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 48% | 47.9% | |
48.2% | |
||
| McCain: | 46.8% | 46.3% | |
46.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 1.2% | 1.6% | |
1.3% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Obama had pulled away some in North Carolina in mid-week but the margin has since slid back to where it was a week ago. In that sense, McCain has some momentum, but the larger point remains that he barely gained any ground in the state since last Monday, though McCain does have some pretty good news in that 3 of the 4 polls released in the state today show him ahead, albeit all by only 1%. In those 3 polls show the status of the race, then North Carolina could be tough for Obama, though it’ll be easier than either Indiana or Missouri.
Ohio
PPP - Obama 50 (51), McCain 48 (44) | 1,208 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/21-10/23)
Quinnipiac - Obama 50 (51), McCain 43 (42) | 1,574 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 (10/22-10/26)
Rasmussen - Obama 49 (49), McCain 49 (45) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Strategic Vision - McCain 48 (48), Obama 46 (45) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/20-10/22)
Survey USA - Obama 48 (49), McCain 46 (45) | 660 LV - 3.9% | Nov. 1 - 2 (10/26-10/27)
Univ. of Cincinnati - Obama 52 (49), McCain 46 (46) | 1,308 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 29 - Nov. 2 (10/18-10/22)
Zogby - Obama 50 (50), McCain 44 (45) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 49.1% | 49% | |
48.9% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.9% | 44.2% | |
44.7% | |
||
| Margin: | 4.2% | 4.8% | |
4.2% | – | ||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Ohio is kind of like North Carolina, except that Obama had a 3% larger margin in Ohio. Obama started the week with about a 4% lead, mid-week it expanded to about 5%, and now it’s back to 4%. Out of 7 polls released today, only the GOP-leaning Strategic Vision gives McCain the lead, though his margin actually decreased from their last poll.
Ohio is to McCain pretty much like how Georgia is to Obama - is it in range? Yes. Is it likely he pulls off a win here, no? And unlike Obama in Georgia, McCain is going to have to come from behind in Ohio.
Pennsylvania
Strategic Vision - Obama 51 (49), McCain 44 (44) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/27-10/29)
Quinnipiac - Obama 52 (53), McCain 42 (41) | 1,493 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 (10/22-10/26)
Zogby - Obama 54, McCain 40 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.8% | 51.7% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 42.7% | 42.8% | |
41.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 9.1% | 8.9% | |
9.9% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
Three new polls today, and all of them bigger than some of the most recent polls in the state, suggesting that Obama has countered some of McCain’s gains in the state late in the week. If McCain wins in Pennsylvania it will be the Appalachian State over Michigan of Presidential Elections. It would be one of the most monumental upsets ever. Which is why it’s unlikely it will occur. Of course, Appalachian State did beat Michigan too.
Virginia
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (51), McCain 47 (47) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Zogby - Obama 51 (52), McCain 45 (45) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 50.3% | 50.2% | |
50.6% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.6% | 44.4% | |
44.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 5.7% | 5.8% | |
6.2% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
Much like the start of the week, Obama holds about a 6% lead in Virginia, which will be very difficult for McCain to claw back against. The only advantage McCain has here is that Virginia is traditionally a red state, so Obama has to fight against the default. However, Obama clearly has the advantage in the state.
Washington
Strategic Vision - Obama 55 (54), McCain 40 (42) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/25-10/26)
Survey USA - Obama 56 (56), McCain 40 (39) | 663 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/26-10/27)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 54.8% | 54.5% | |
54.2% | |
||
| McCain: | 39.6% | 39.3% | |
38.7% | |
||
| Margin: | 15.2% | 15.2% | – | 15.5% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
Obama is still hanging onto a 15% lead or so. We just hope Obama’s strong showing here will be enough to re-elect Christine Gregoire over DIno Rossi in the governor’s race.
Wisconsin
Strategic Vision - Obama 53 (50), McCain 40 (41) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/24-10/26)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 52.3% | 52.2% | |
51.6% | |
||
| McCain: | 40.7% | 40.8% | |
41.2% | |
||
| Margin: | 11.6% | 11.4% | |
10.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
Wisconsin is still rolling for Obama. Unlike 2000 and 2004, it doesn’t look like this state will give us much suspense on election night.
Overall Thoughts
So, how do the Weak and Too Close To Call states look like today as compared to after last Monday? Well, let’s take a look:
Key
- Obama leads and gained
- Obama leads with no change +/- 0.3%
- Obama leads and lost ground
- McCain leads and lost ground
- McCain leads with no change +/- 0.3%
- McCain leads and gained
States
- Colorado: from Obama+5.7% to Obama+6.3%
- Florida: from Obama+2.2% to Obama+2.1%
- Georgia: from McCain+5.4% to McCain+4.5%
- Indiana: from Obama+0.7% to McCain+0.6%
- Missouri: from Obama+1.2% to Obama+0.2%
- Montana: from McCain+2.7% to McCain+2.7%
- Nevada: from Obama+2.9% to Obama+5.3%
- New Hampshire: from Obama+8.6% to Obama+10.8%
- North Carolina: from Obama+1.3% to Obama+1.2%
- Ohio: from Obama+4.2% to Obama+4.2%
- Pennsylvania: from Obama+9.9% to Obama+9.1%
- Virginia: from Obama+6.2% to Obama+5.7%
So you look at this and things look generally good for Obama. He gained or essnetially stayed the same in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio as well as McCain’s state of Georgia. Meanwhile, McCain has only gained or stayed the same in Montana as well as Obama’s state of Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
However, the only state McCain has actually been able to flip is Indiana (though he’s pretty close in Missouri as well). The two other state he’s closed still have pretty big Obama lead in the average - closing 0.8% in a state which he was down by 9.9% and gaining 0.5% in a state he was down by 6.2%. That’s gaining back only 8% to 9% of what he actually needs (and actually, that ratio of how much McCain gained vs. how much he was down is pretty close in both states).
So the only appreciable gains for McCain are Indiana and Missouri - states which are pretty much on the fringe of Obama’s targets anyway. They’re the difference between a 353 EV night and a 375 EV night for Obama, basically. That’s obviously not where McCain needs to be gaining. Even if McCain grabbed back North Carolina, Obama still has 338 Electoral Votes, though that would allow McCain to cross the 200 barrier.
Overall, there is no appreciable change in the races in the states in any place that would actually threaten Obama’s hold on an Electoral College lead.
