Only 14 polls today as pollsters probably have their final polls that they want to release Monady in the field, as well as the fact that most pollsters probably wanted to avoid polling on Halloween as much as possible.
Today shows pretty much more of the same, except for 2 new key polls in Pennsylvania.
New Polls Added Today
Arkansas
ARG - McCain 51 (53), Obama 44 (41) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31 (9/20-9/22)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 52.1% | 52.5% |  |
51.6% |  |
||
| Obama: | 42% | 40.7% | |
38.8% | |
||
| Margin: | 10.1% | 11.8% | |
12.8% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain | ||||||
Is Obama closing the gap in Arkansas? Yeah, a little bit. However, if you have 7 days to go, and you’re 13% down, and you only close 3% in 5 of those 7 days, it’s not going to be enough. Obama may be able to pull within single digits, though.
California
Survey USA - Obama 60 (59), McCain 36 (35) | 637 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/15-10/16)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 57.5% | 56.9% | |
57.5% | – | ||
| McCain: | 35.2% | 34.9% | |
35.6% | |
||
| Margin: | 22.3% | 22% | |
21.9% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
Why are people still polling California?
Florida
ARG - Obama 50 (47), McCain 46 (46) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 31 (9/23-9/25)
Datamar - Obama 47 (49), McCain 47 (44) | 995 LV - 3.1% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/25-10/26)
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (45), McCain 45 (46) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/20-10/21)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 48% | 48% | – | 48.1% | |
||
| McCain: | 45.5% | 45.4% | |
45.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 2.5% | 2.6% | |
2.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Obama is staying the course in Florida, continuing to hang on to a lead of around 2% in the state. The key to a state like Florida will be turnout, and how the undecided break. Assuming no third parties, Obama needs to currently win 31% of undecides in the state to win. Typically undecideds don’t break harder for one candidate than the other, but the so-called Bradley effect, if it still exists (and there is good evidence that it doesn’t anymore), usually lives in the undecided vote.
Indiana
ARG - McCain 48 (47), Obama 48 (44) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31 (9/14-9/18)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 47% | 46.8% | |
46.3% | |
||
| Obama: | 46.8% | 46.6% | |
47% | |
||
| Margin: | 0.2% | 0.2% | – | -0.7% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Did I mention that Indiana was really close?
Iowa
Selzer - Obama 54, McCain 37 | 814 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 28 - 31
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 53% | 52.7% | |
52.2% | |
||
| McCain: | 40% | 40.5% | |
40.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 13% | 12.2% | |
11.3% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
Iowa continues to solidify in favor of Obama, and this state still looks like the most likely to switch from Bush to Obama.
New Jersey
Monmouth - Obama 55 (55), McCain 34 (38) | 801 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/15-10/18)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 53.6% | 53.4% | |
54.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 38% | 38.6% | |
38.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 15.6% | 14.8% | |
15.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
The margin in New Jersey continues to hang around 15% for Obama, as the GOP has no allusion of a shot here this time.
New Mexico
Survey USA - Obama 52 (52), McCain 45 (45) | 664 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/12-10/13)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 53.7% | 54.2% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 43.3% | 42.8% | |
43.2% | |
||
| Margin: | 10.4% | 11.4% | |
8.1% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
New Mexico will probably float back down to Weak Obama by election day as the average corrects after the PPP outlier yesterday. Obama probably still realistically still leads in the high single-digits, though.
Oregon
Rasmussen - Obama 54 (54), McCain 42 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30 (10/14)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 54.5% | 54.6% | |
54% | |
||
| McCain: | 38.9% | 38.4% | |
38.7% | |
||
| Margin: | 15.6% | 16.2% | |
15.3% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
Oregon continues to swing between 15% and 16% in the average, but remains a strong Obama state.
Pennsylvania
ARG - Obama 51 (50), McCain 45 (46) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 31 (9/20-9/22)
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (53), McCain 47 (46) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30 (10/27)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.7% | 51.9% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 42.3% | 41.7% | |
41.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 9.4% | 10.2% | |
9.9% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
I think there is some undeniable tightening going on in Pennsylvania in the last few days. The last six polls from the state are Obama +4%, +4%, +5%, +6%, +12%, and +13%. Suddenly, the double-digit leads are looking like the outlers and the mid single-digit leads are looking like the norm. The average margin will be slow to come down just because there are so many recent double-digit leads for Obama in the state, but if you look at the current polling, there is definite tightening going on.
Now, where is this tightening occurring? The shift that the average is detecting seems to show that pretty much all of the closure is coming from McCain increasing his number than Obama losing support. In fact, Obama’s average support is now nearing 52% in the state.
Looking at individual polls, Obama’s average number from the 29th through the 31st was 51.2%. Obama’s average support from October 26th through October 28th was 52.7%. Looking at the numbers that way suggest a tightening of about 1.5% of Obama’s margin.
McCain’s average from the 29th through the 31st was 43.8%. His average from October 26th through 28th was 41.9% - a nearly 2% increase.
So, you can see, looking at it from this prospective, Obama has gone from a 52.7% to 41.9% lead - a margin of 10.8% - to a 51.2% to 43.8% lead - a margin of 7.4%, a closing of 3.4% by McCain in just 3 days.
Now, other states have a margin around 7% or so - New Mexico for example. However, it’s the trend in Pennsylvania that should be worrying obama at this point. A more than 1% drop per day is very sharp, and suddenly makes election day less predictable.
However, having said that, the margin is over 7%, meaning that McCain has to win virtually all independents, hope there is no significant third party support, and still has to grab more of Obama’s support. That’s still quite a lot to ask, but it’s no longer looking like an impossible task for McCain to pull off in Pennsylvania.
South Dakota
Rasmussen - McCain 53 (54), Obama 44 (37) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30 (9/9)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 51.3% | 49.7% | |
49.7% | |
||
| Obama: | 42.3% | 40.8% | |
40.8% | |
||
| Margin: | 9% | 8.9% | |
8.9% | |
||
| Status: | Weak McCain | ||||||
This pretty much confirms what South Dakota looked like - a high McCain single-digit lead.
Utah
Dan Jones & Associates - McCain 57, Obama 32 | 1,205 RV - 2.9% | Oct. 24 - 30
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 56.6% | 56.2% | |
63.5% | |
||
| Obama: | 31.7% | 31.4% | |
28.1% | |
||
| Margin: | 24.9% | 24.8% | |
35.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain | ||||||
Some tightening in Utah since Monday, not that it really matters in a state where the margin is still 25%.
Overall Thoughts
I think I’ve said most of what can be said for today above under the Pennsylvania numbers. Pennsylvania is now winnable by McCain in a McCain best case scenario, something which wasn’t the case only 3 days ago or so. The question is whether McCain can continue to close, or whether he’s closed as much as he’s going to close. What polls come out Monday say will be very important, including looking at the trends.
One also have to remember that the polls were much closer in Pennsylvania for both Gore and Kerry and both pulled out victories there. The fact that Pennsylvania is fundamentally a blue state shouldn’t be discounted.
