Today I debut my new results table to show changes in the averages. I have three numbers on this table: the new averages after today, the averages after yesterday, and the averages after Monday. The Monday numbers will stay there through the election to show what changes are taking place over the course of the week.
I also have tracker arrows next to the numbers from yesterday and Monday. The numbers show whether the current numbers are lower (red arrow) or higher (green arrow) than the number shown for either yesterday or Monday. By the way, the margin is based on who is leading, so an up arrow for the margin in a state McCain leads means he’s increased his margin in that state.
In any case, 30 new polls came out today (making it 86 new polls in 3 days). Once again, a lot of love for battlegrounds, but also some love for the sure thing states.
Also, one final note: Research 2000 released a poll, but my policy, initially set up to address daily tracking polls, stipulates that I don’t include two polls from the same polling firm which overlap, which this poll does with another Indiana Research 2000 poll, so that poll has been left out. I just wanted to note that this was the case.
New Polls Added Today
Alaska
Rasmussen - McCain 57 (55), Obama 41 (40) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/6)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 55.7% | 55% |  |
55% | |
||
| Obama: | 40.1% | 39.5% | |
39.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 15.6% | 15.5% | |
15.5% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain | ||||||
The Palin effect still looms in Alaska.
Colorado
Associated Press - Obama 50, McCain 41 | 626 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 53 (51), McCain 45 (47) | 774 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 50.8% | 50.6% | |
50.2% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.2% | 44.5% |  |
44.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 6.6% | 6.1% | |
5.7% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
Colorado increasingly looks like a state with an upper-single-digit margin for Obama with recent polls, including these, showing leads of 9%, 8%, 8%, and 12%, with really only Rasmussen showing something different at 4%. This is also now 9 straight polls and 14 of the last 15 polls which show Obama at or over 50%.
Delaware
Survey USA - Obama 63 (57), McCain 33 (37) | 657 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (9/22-9/23)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 60% | 55.8% | |
55.8% | |
||
| McCain: | 35.5% | 39.2% | |
39.2% | |
||
| Margin: | 24.5% | 16.6% | |
16.6% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
And Delaware makes it two-for-two for running mates’ states being safe.
Florida
Associated Press - Obama 45, McCain 43 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 51 (51), McCain 47 (46) | 747 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)
Quinnipiac - Obama 47 (49), McCain 45 (44) | 1,435 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 48.2% | 48.3% | |
48.1% | |
||
| McCain: | 45.5% | 45.6% | |
45.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 2.7% | 2.7% | – | 2.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
The three polls today average out exactly to the average after yesterday of 2.7%. I’d say that’s a good show of consistency for Florida. Also, Obama has now been over 50% in 3 straight polls, and have led or been tied in 9 straight polls.
Georgia
CNN/Time - McCain 52 (53), Obama 47 (45) | 690 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 49.9% | 49.6% | |
49.9% | – | ||
| Obama: | 45.1% | 44.8% | |
44.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 4.8% | 4.8% | – | 5.4% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Georgia remains a 5% race. This will still be a tough race for Obama to pick off, but it will be a sucker punch to the GOP if he can do it.
Idaho
Harstad - McCain 55, Obama 32 | 502 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 19 - 22
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 62.2% | 64.5% | |
64.5% | |
||
| Obama: | 31.7% | 30% | |
30% | |
||
| Margin: | 24.8% | 34.5% | |
34.5% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain | ||||||
It might actually be a bit of an accomplishment if Obama could do well enough to not be doubled-up in some of these far west Mountain states where the GOP usually wins by ridiculous margins like 70 to 30 or 80 to 20.
Kansas
Survey USA - McCain 58 (53), Obama 37 (41) | 626 LV - 3..9% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/21-10/22)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 55.3% | 53.5% | |
53.5% | |
||
| Obama: | 38.8% | 40.1% | |
40.1% | |
||
| Margin: | 16.5% | 13.4% | |
13.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain |
||||||
Two polls in a week by the same pollster? Why? This isn’t Missouri or something. In any case, Kansas is to McCain as Delaware is to Obama. Safe.
Michigan
Rasmussen - Obama 53 (56), McCain 43 (40) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/8)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.9% | 51.8% | |
51.8% | |
||
| McCain: | 40.2% | 39.4% | |
39.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 11.7% | 12.4% | |
12.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
Onoz! Michigan is tightening! OK, not really. It’s still a more than solid lead for Obama here.
Minnesota
Rasmussen - Obama 55 (56), McCain 43 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/22)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.6% | 51% | |
51% | |
||
| McCain: | 41.1% | 40.8% | |
40.8% | |
||
| Margin: | 10.5% | 10.2% | |
10.2% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
If there was any hope that Minnesota was tightening up in the last couple of weeks, that hope is about gone for the McCain campaign.
Missouri
CNN/Time - McCain 50 (49), Obama 48 (48) | 825 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (Oct. 11 - 14)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 47.8% | 47.7% | |
47.7% | |
||
| McCain: | 46.9% | 46.5% | |
46.5% | |
||
| Margin: | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
1.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Missouri, for whatever reason, is getting neglected by the pollsters. A mere six polls have been released for the state in the past week. That may sound a lot until you start comparing to other states (Virginia, for example, has had 8 polls released in just the past 3 days).
However, what polls we have are a mix bag. In those six polls, 3 show Obama ahead, 2 show McCain ahead, and 1 is a tie. Missouri, like Indiana, is virtually a true tie and we may be staying up late to see which way this state goes.
Nevada
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 628 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
Research 2000 - Obama 50 (50), McCain 45 (43) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 28 (10/3-10/6)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 49.4% | 48.9% | |
48.5% | |
||
| McCain: | 44.3% | 44.8% | |
45.6% | |
||
| Margin: | 5.1% | 4.1% | |
2.9% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
As you can see, we’ve seen some major movement in Nevada towards Obama recently, with his average margin in the state going from 2.9% to over 5% in just two days now, making Nevada our newest Weak Obama state. How long it stays there will depend on whether the next poll shows Obama ahead 5% or more or by less than 5%.
Nevada also has a mix of polls as well, with Suffolk and the AP showing a double digit race, while Rasmussen, Research USA, and Zogby show it as 4% or 5%. Either way, it’s still an Obama lead, but a 4% lead is obviously less secure than a 10% lead. 5 of the last 6 polls in the state also show Obama at or over 50%.
New Hampshire
Associated Press - Obama 55, McCain 37 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.6% | 51.1% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 41.5% | 42.2% | |
42.7% | |
||
| Margin: | 10.1% | 8.9% | |
8.6% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
New Hampshire was looking vulnerable - that is until three polls have come out showing Obama with double digit leads of 11, 16, and now 18. As a result, New Hampshire has, for the moment, moved back into the Strong Obama category.
New Mexico
Rasmussen - Obama 54 (55), McCain 44 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/13)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 52.4% | 51.3% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 43.6% | 43.2% | |
43.2% | |
||
| Margin: | 8.8% | 8.1% | |
8.1% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
New Mexico has been all but forgotten in poll-land. It’s gotten fewer polls in the month of October than states such as California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York, and Oklahoma (and has gotten equal treatment with Wyoming). This can also be illustrated by the fact that the last poll for this state was from…Rasmussen, nearly 2 weeks ago.
Of course, Obama is pretty close to running away with this state, so it’s not surprising people may pass it over, but come on people.
New York
Survey USA - Obama 62 (64), McCain 33 (31) | 633 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/11-10/12)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 61.3% | 61% | |
61% | |
||
| McCain: | 32.6% | 32.6% | – | 32.6% | – | ||
| Margin: | 28.7% | 28.4% | |
28.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama |
||||||
Why are people still polling New York?
North Carolina
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 46 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 48.1% | 48.1% | – |
48.2% | |
||
| McCain: | 46.8% | 46.9% | |
46.9% | |
||
| Margin: | 1.3% | 1.2% | |
1.3% | – | ||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
This is what I’d call a stable race. Two of the six comparisons are tied, and each of the other four are off by only 0.1%. This remains a very close race, slightly favoring Obama.
Ohio
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 41 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Marist - Obama 48 (49), McCain 45 (45) | 661 LV - 4% | Oct. 24 - 26 (10/5-10/8)
Quinnipiac - Obama 51 (52), McCain 42 (38) | 1,425 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 48.9% | 48.9% | – | 48.9% | – | ||
| McCain: | 44.2% | 44.4% | |
44.7% | |
||
| Margin: | 4.7% | 4.5% | |
4.2% | |
||
| Status: | Too Close To Call | ||||||
Here are the last eight poll margins for Obama in Ohio: 3%, 4%, 4%, 4%, 5%, 7%, 9%, and 9%. We have a bit of tug of war between polls saying that the margin is 4% or lower and those that say it’s over 5%. In any case, the margin appears to be somewhere in the mid-single-digits. Obama has led in 13 of the past 14 polls in Ohio.
Pennsylvania
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Franklin & Marshall - Obama 53 (48), McCain 40 (43) | 550(?) LV - 4.2% | Oct. 21 - 26 (9/23-9/28)
Marist - Obama 55 (53), McCain 41 (41) | 713 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/5-10/8)
Quinnipiac - Obama 53 (53), McCain 41 (40) | 1,364 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.9% | 51.4% | |
51.3% | |
||
| McCain: | 41.5% | 41.8% | |
41.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 10.4% | 9.6% | |
9.9% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
Having the state move from Weak Obama to Strong Obama is obviously not the direction McCain wants this state to move. After a two day vacation in the Weak Obama category, it looks like Pennsylvania is widening back to a double-digit lead for Obama. There are now 13 straight polls, and 20 of the last 21 polls, showing Obama at or over 50% in the state.
Utah
Mason-Dixon - McCain 55 (62), Obama 32 (23) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25 (8/13-8/15)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| McCain: | 56.2% | 63.5% | |
63.5% | |
||
| Obama: | 31.4% | 28.1% | |
28.1% | |
||
| Margin: | 24.8% | 35.4% | |
35.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong McCain | ||||||
This poll is significant for several reasons, even though It’s Utah.
1. Along with the above Idaho poll, this makes it so that Obama is not currently being doubled-up in any state. That would be an amazing feat considering just how red some of these western states can be.
2. Obama is now averaging over 30% in every state. Ditto the same point as point 1 about how red these states are. On the other hand, McCain is looking at a sub 30% number in Hawaii.
3. Obama is now within 30% in every state.
In short, on election night, typically even the best Democratic states weren’t slaughters, where the split may be at best 60/40. Meanwhile, many Republican states could pad the popular vote total by racking up margins of 70/30 or even 80/20.
However, this year Obama appears to have balanced that out, and Obama’s best states are about the same, as far as margin, as McCain’s best states. Of course, the difference is that McCain’s best states are states like Utah and Idaho when Obama’s are New York and Illinois.
Also, this makes Oklahoma McCain’s best state, with a margin of 28.7%.
Virginia
Associated Press - Obama 49, McCain 42 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 53, McCain 44 | 721 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 50.5% | 50.4% | |
50.6% | |
||
| McCain: | 43.8% | 44% | |
44.4% | |
||
| Margin: | 6.7% | 6.4% | |
6.2% | |
||
| Status: | Weak Obama | ||||||
McCain continues to fall in Virginia as Obama pretty much keeps his support level at about 50.5%. Obama’s lead in the state is now approaching 7% as he’s led in 21 straight polls in the state.
Wisconsin
Research 2000 - Obama 53 (52), McCain 42 (41) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/20-10/21)
| Today | Last | 10/27 | |||||
| Obama: | 51.5% | 51.4% | |
51.6% | |
||
| McCain: | 41.4% | 41.2% | |
41.2% | |
||
| Margin: | 10.1% | 10.2% | |
10.4% | |
||
| Status: | Strong Obama | ||||||
One of these oddities where, due to how the weights on polls change as they age, a new poll pushes the average margin down, even when the poll has a margin larger than the average.
Overall Thoughts
Perhaps the status of the race can be described by sheer stats (only for states which had polls released today):
Weak or Too Close To Call states in which Obama has improved since Monday:
- Colorado
- Florida
- Georgia
- Nevada
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Virginia
Weak or Too Close To Call states in which McCain has improved since Monday:
- Missouri
Meanwhile, here is a comparison of some Obama states vs. McCain states based on the average margin:
- Florida is to Obama (2.7% lead) as Montana is to McCain (2.7% lead)
- Ohio is to Obama (4.7% lead) as Georgia is to McCain (4.8% lead)
- Nevada is to Obama (5.1% lead) as Arizona is to McCain (5.1% lead)
- Colorado and Virginia are to Obama (6.6% and 6.7% lead) as West Virginia is to McCain (6.2% lead)
- New Mexico is to Obama (8.8% lead) as South Dakota is to McCain (8.9%)
- Pennsylvania is to Obama (10.4% lead) as Mississippi is to McCain (10.3% lead)
Just consider those comparisons for a moment. According to the current margin, McCain coming back to win Pennsylvania would be like Obama picking off Mississippi. And that’s supposed to be McCain’s big play.
