We don’t quite have the polling total as yesterday, but we still bring in a healthy haul of 25 new polls today. We also have the first change of status for a state since I started doing my daily report, and it’s a state which McCain probably never though would be in contention this year.
New Polls Added Today
Arizona
Arizona State - McCain 46 (45), Obama 44 (38) | 1,019 LV - 3% | Oct. 23 - 26 (9/25-9/28)
| Average: | McCain: 47.4% (47.8%) | Obama: 42.3% (41.9%) | Margin: 5.1% (5.9%) |
The polls coming out of Arizona are almost too good to be true. We’ve now had 5 recent polls from this state showing the race to be McCain leads of 2, 4, 5, 8, and 2. These polls have now pushed Arizona to the brink of being a Too Close To Call state. If Obama has any organization at all in this state, he may just be able to flip it because, really, how much money do you think McCain has invested in Arizona?
Arkansas
Rasmussen - McCain 54 (51), Obama 44 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 (9/22)
| Average: | McCain: 52.5% (51.6%) | Obama: 40.7% (38.8%) | Margin: 11.8% (12.8%) |
Being over 50% in Arkansas since July, McCain looks like he still have Arkansas well within his grasp, regardless of what Dick Morris might say.
Colorado
Insider Advantage - Obama 53 (51), McCain 45 (46) | 636 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 26 (10/20)
| Average: | Obama: 50.6% (50.2%) |
McCain: 44.5% (44.5%) |
Margin: 6.1% (5.7%) |
This 8% mark matches the POS (that is, Public Opinion Strategies) poll released a couple days ago. Obama’s margin in Colorado once ahead heads over 6%, making it so that no Weak Obama state is in any imminent danger of dropping into the Too Close To Call category.
Florida
Datamar - Obama 49 (47), McCain 44 (42) | 630 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 25 - 26 (10/12-10/13)
LA Times - Obama 50, McCain 43 | 639 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27
| Average: | Obama 48.3% (48.1%) |
McCain: 45.6% (45.9%) |
Margin: 2.7% (2.2%) |
This is the 2nd straight day that polls have come out with a larger margin for Obama than the existing average in the state. Over the past 2 days we’ve had polls in Florida saying that either the race was tied (Zogby) and that Obama had leads of 4%, 5%, 5%, and 7%. This strongly suggests that the tightening towards McCain that was occurring last week is now reversing itself, and Obama may be building a lead approaching 5% in the state again.
Indeed, in the last two days alone, the average margin for Obama in Florida has expanded from 2.1% to 2.7%.
However, the LA Times poll appears to be off on one account: It actually shows McCain winning the early vote 49% to 45%. This is opposite everything I’ve seen anywhere else and is in opposition to the apparent demographics of the early voting segment. Yet Obama still leads overall, suggesting that Obama’s lead among those who have yet to vote is even larger than 7%, according to the LA Times.
Georgia
Insider Advantage - McCain 48 (47), Obama 47 (48) | 637 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 (10/23)
| Average: | McCain: 49.6% (49.9%) |
Obama: 44.8% (44.5%) |
Margin: 4.8% (5.4%) |
Say hello to the newest Too Close To Call state, as the average margin in the state falls below 5% for McCain. How long this will last, I don’t know, since the two most recent polls are both Insider Advantage polls, so if another poll comes out showing the lead at bigger than 5%, this could easily flip back to Weak McCain. However, a grey Georgia is definitely not what McCain wants to see.
Indiana
Howey-Gauge - McCain 47, Obama 45 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 24
Research 2000 - Obama 48 (46), McCain 47 (46) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25 (9/29-10/3)
| Average: | Obama: 46.9% (47%) |
McCain: 46.5% (46.3%) |
Margin: 0.4% (1.5%) |
You can’t get much closer than this. The margin is well under 1% in Indiana, with 4 of the past six polls favoring Obama and 2 favoring McCain. We might be waiting well into the night for Indiana.
Louisiana
SE Louisiana Univ. - McCain 51, Obama 38 | 503 RV - 4.5% | Oct. 20 - 23
| Average: | McCain: 53.9% (56.3%) | Obama: 39.5% (40.9%) | Margin: 14.4% (15.4%) |
This pretty much confirms a Rasmussen poll from a few days ago which says that this race has a margin in the mid-teens in favor of McCain. It would take a true monumental landslide for McCain to lose this state.
Mississippi
Rasmussen - McCain 53 (52), Obama 45 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 (9/30)
| Average: | McCain: 50.1% (48.5%) | Obama: 39.8% (36.8%) | Margin: 10.3% (11.7%) |
As you can see from the trend, Rasmussen has tended to show the Presidential race in Mississippi a bit closer than most other pollsters. Even so, McCain has been over 50% in every poll but one (and that poll had 21% undecideds), so this should still be a pretty safe McCain state.
Montana
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
| Average: | McCain: 46.8% (46.6%) |
Obama: 44.1% (44.2%) |
Margin: 2.7% (2.4%) |
This is now the 4th straight poll showing Montana to be a bonafide battleground state. Perhaps more concerning for McCain, it’s also the 3rd straight poll showing him under 50% in the state.
Nevada
Rasmussen - Obama 50 (50), McCain 46 (45) | 700 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 (10/16)
Suffolk - Obama 50, McCain 40 | 450 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/17-9/21)
| Average: | Obama: 48.9% (48.5%) |
McCain: 44.8% (45.6%) |
Margin: 4.1% (2.9%) |
Not much has changed here for Obama according to Rasmussen. Meanwhile, Obama increases the average margin to over 4% and is very nearly to an average support level of 49%. The outcome here is clearly not certain, but it continues to look good for Nevada. However, the 10% lead in Suffolk is a little larger than we’ve seen everywhere else, as well.
New Hampshire
Mason-Dixon - Obama 50, McCain 39 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
| Average: | Obama: 51.1% (51.3%) |
McCain: 42.2% (42.7%) |
Margin: 8.9% (8.6%) |
This poll is right smack dab between the Rasmussen poll and the UNH poll, sharing the 39% McCain number with UNH and the 50% Obama number with Rasmussen. We now have two pollsters showing this race in double-digits and two pollsters saying that it’s in the mid-single-digit range, so while it’s clear that Obama is ahead in New Hampshire, it’s still unclear by how much.
New Jersey
Strategic Vision - Obama 53 (48), McCain 38 (39) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/26-9/28)
| Average: | Obama: 54% (54.3%) |
McCain: 38.8% (38.9%) |
Margin: 15.2% (15.4%) |
No stray thoughts about picking off New Jersey this year.
North Carolina
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47, McCain 47 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
| Average: | Obama: 48.1% (48.2%) |
McCain: 46.9% (46.9%) |
Margin: 1.2% (1.3%) |
One thing is for certain: North Carolina is close. The last 5 polls have showed 2 McCain leds (though both are Rasmussen), 2 Obama leads and a tie. Can’t get much closer than that.
Ohio
LA Times - Obama 49, McCain 40 | 644 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27
Survey USA - Obama 49 (50), McCain 45 (45) | 648 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/12-10/13)
| Average: | Obama: 48.9% (48.9%) |
McCain: 44.4% (44.7%) |
Margin: 4.5% (4.2%) |
Early voting numbers are stellar in this state. Survey USA say 22% have already voted early, with the breakdown 56%-39% in favor of Obama while the LA Times says that 13% have voted early, and the margin there is a similar 57%-35%.
The LA Times poll seems a little overoptimistic. The last 5 polls released over the past 3 days show margins for Obama of 4%, 4%, 5%, 4%, and the LA Times’ 9%. Obama maintains a clear lead in the state, but probably not that large of a lead.
Pennsylvania
Insider Advantage - Obama 51, McCain 42 | 588 LV - 4% | Oct. 26
Rasmussen - Obama 53 (54), McCain 46 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 26 (10/6)
| Average: | Obama: 51.4% (51.3%) |
McCain: 41.8% (41.4%) |
Margin: 9.6% (9.9%) |
This marks some good news and some bad news for McCain. The good news is that the Rasmussen poll marks a tightening of 6% from Rasmussen’s last poll nearly 3 weeks ago, to bring the race within 6%, the closest it’s been since a Franklin & Marshall poll showed the margin at 5% back in September.
The bad news for McCain is that there is only 1% undecided left and Obama is at 53% in the Rasmussen poll. Also, it is the first poll to have McCain even over 43% in 23 polls dating back to the last week in September (including the Insider Advantage poll), so that 46% number for McCain is something I’d really like to see confirmed somewhere else before believing it. These polls also mark 9 straight polls with Obama at or over 50% and 16 out of the last 17 polls.
Virginia
Roanoke College - Obama 48, McCain 39 | 614 LV - 4% | Oct. 19 - 26
| Average: | Obama 50.4% (50.6%) |
McCain: 44% (44.4%) |
Margin: 6.4% (6.2%) |
Yet another poll showing Obama with a high single-digit lead. This is the 5th poll (out of 6) in two days showing Obama with at least a 7% lead. This is the only one of those polls that shows Obama below 50%, but that’s probably because leaners weren’t pushed hard, as this poll still shows 13% undecided.
Obama has now, in just 3 days, increased his average margin over McCain from 5% to 6.4%. That signifies a significant widening in the polls in Obama’s favor in Virginia.
Vermont
Research 2000 - Obama 57 (55), McCain 36 (36) | 400 LV - 5% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/11-9/14)
| Average: | Obama: 55.7% (52.7%) |
McCain: 34.5% (31.4%) |
Margin: 21.2% (21.3%) |
In other news: the Sun rises in the East.
Washington
Strategic Vision - Obama 54 (47), McCain 42 (42) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 25 - 26 (9/14-9/16)
Survey USA - Obama 56 (56), McCain 39 (40) | 630 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/12-10/13)
| Average: | Obama: 54.5% (54.2%) |
McCain: 39.3% (38.7%) |
Margin: 15.2% (15.5%) |
Same ole, same ole in Washington. Obama maintains his 15% lead or so in the state.
Wisconsin
Strategic Vision - Obama 50 (49), McCain 41 (40) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/26-9/28)
| Average: | Obama: 51.4% (51.6%) |
McCain: 41.2% (41.2%) |
Margin: 10.2% (10.4%) |
Strategic Vision typically leans Republican, and even they give Obama a pretty significant lead in Wisconsin. I’m not even sure McCain is still really contesting Wisconsin anymore, either.
Overall Thoughts
Is what McCain is doing in Pennsylvania working? Yes and No, maybe. We’ve seen some very slight narrowing in the polls in Pennsylvania - enough to knock the average margin below 10%. However, this is more due to some undecideds floating to McCain than Obama losing support. However, McCain can’t just move undecides as the polls over the past month clearly show Obama has over 50% support. He must also chip away at the support Obama already has - something which he hasn’t been able to accomplish yet.
In other states, we see continuing Obama gains in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia while McCain gains some ground in Indiana, though still trails. Montana and North Carolina pretty much stayed put.
McCain is still looking at a map where 286 Electoral Votes will almost certainly go to Obama, with at least 311 likely heading his way. The increase in Obama’s support in Florida also pushes that state closer to Obama, which would push his total up to 328.
Meanwhile, McCain is hardly gaining anywhere, and is losing ground in Weak Obama states, Lean Obama states, and even his own states as Georgia falls into the Too Close To Call category and his own home state of Arizona is on the brink of following suit. Meanwhile, Mississippi takes a step closer from leaving the red states and becoming a pink state.
There just doesn’t seem to be any movement anywhere in any amount sufficient to even make McCain competitive on election day as of today, 1 week out from Election Day.
