Status of the Electoral College

Obama continues to cruise as we get 34 more polls entered into the database today, the most polls yet since I started keeping track on Monday.  In the four days since and including Monday, 120 polls have been released.

We are now at 1,350 total polls and we’ve broken through the 900,000 respondent barrier today (and that’s just polls included in my database.  That doesn’t count national polls or daily tracking polls that I skip because they overlap).  We could feasibly hit 1,500 total polls entered in the database by election day, and at an average of 670 respondents per poll, that could get us to over 1 million respondents.

When this is over, I should do a poll of all polls and calculate the total percent of all people surveyed which support each candidate.

New Polls Added Today

Alabama
Survey USA - McCain 61 (62), Obama 36 (35) | 650 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/8-10/9)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	59%		57.4%			57.4%
Obama:	35.2%		34.4%			34.4%
Margin:	23.8%		23%			23%
Status:	Strong McCain

While Georgia might be close, no such luck for Obama in Georgia’s neighbor and reddest state in the South.

Arizona
CNN - McCain 53, Obama 46 | 807 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 27
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	48.4%		47.4%			47.8%
Obama:	43.1%		42.3%			41.9%
Margin:	5.3%		5.1%			5.9%
Status:	Weak McCain

These two polls still suggest that the race in Arizona is probably hanging somewhere around the 5% mark or so.  McCain should still win the state, but being within 5% still has to give him indigestion.

California
Field - Obama 55 (52), McCain 33 (36) | 966 LV - 3.3% | Oct. 18 - 28 (9/5-9/14)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	52.7%		57.5%			57.5%
McCain:	34.9%		35.6%			35.6%
Margin:	22%		21.9%			21.9%
Status:	Strong Obama

I guess we can have one more California poll snuck in before the election…

Colorado
Marist - Obama 51, McCain 45 | 682 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
National Journal - Obama 48 (45), McCain 44 (44) | 409 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	50.5%		50.8%			50.2%
McCain:	44.3%		44.2%			44.5%
Margin:	6.2%		6.6%			5.7%
Status:	Weak Obama

Neither of these polls look all that far off, though Obama under 50% in the National Journal poll is a bit different from most other Colorado polls (though, he’s under 50% in all the National Journal polls, and they have a high level of undecideds, suggesting they didn’t push leaners).  Even including it, Obama is at or over 50% in 10 of the past 11 polls.  Meanwhile, McCain continues to struggle to even break 46% in any poll in the state.

Florida
National Journal - Obama 45 (44), McCain 44 (44) | 408 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	48%		48.2%			48.1%
McCain:	45.4%		45.5%			45.9%
Margin:	2.6%		2.7%			2.2%
Status:	Too Close To Call

We appear to be having a battle between polls which give Obama a slight advantage and those which think the race is essentially tied.  Among the most recent polls, we see polls showing Obama leads of 4%, 4%, 5%, 5%, and 7%.  Meanwhile, other polls are showing a race of tied, 1%, 2%, and 2%.  This may very well be a matter of turnout models within the polls, with a the polls using a more traditional turnout model showing a near tied race while those which use a more expanded model showing a wider race.  Of course, we won’t know which is right until election day.

Indiana
Indianapolis Star - Obama 46 (47), McCain 45 (44) | 606 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28 (9/14-9/16)
Rasmussen - McCain 49 (50), Obama 46 (43) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/7)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	46.6%		46.9%			47%
McCain:	46.8%		46.5%			46.3%
Margin:	-0.2%		0.4%			0.7%
Status:	Too Close To Call

McCain seems to have been slowly but surely clawing away at Obama’s very small lead in Indiana, and today he’s finally been able to recapture the lead himself.  The drop from a 7% lead to a 3% lead in Rasmussen may be more of a correction from a bad poll more than actual movement, as McCain held leads of 2% and 4% in the two Rasmussen Indiana polls before that.

Iowa
Survey USA - Obama 55 (54), McCain 40 (41) | 658 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/8-10/9)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	52.7%		52.2%			52.2%
McCain:	40.8%		40.9%			40.9%
Margin:	11.9%		11.3%			11.3%
Status:	Strong Obama

Obama has been at or over 50% for 13 straight polls and 16 of the past 17 polls in the state, dating back to the start of August.  Iowa is about the surest Bush 2004 state that to go Obama this election.

Kentucky
Rasmussen - McCain 55 (52), Obama 43 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 29 (10/21)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	54%		53.6%			53.6%
Obama:	41.3%		40.6%			40.6%
Margin:	12.7%		13%			13%
Status:	Strong McCain

I don’t think Obama has any chance of winning in Kentucky, but an improved performance - such as closing to within single digits - may be able to bring Lunsford over the line in his Senate race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Louisiana
Loyola - McCain 43, Obama 40 | 500 RV - 4.5% | Oct. 26 - 28

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	50.1%		53.9%			56.3%
Obama:	39.7%		39.5%			40.9%
Margin:	10.4%		14.4%			15.4%
Status:	Strong McCain

This poll shows 15% undecided, which strongly suggests leaners weren’t pushed, and in a state like Louisiana, that probably causes McCain’s number to be underestimated.  Indeed, while Obama’s number of 40% isn’t really all that much off what he’s gotten in other polls, McCain has never been below 50%, much less as low as 43%.  This is on top of the fact that the two other recent polls in the state show McCain leads of 13% and 16%, so I would take this poll with about a Syracuse winter’s worth of salt.

Massachusetts
Survey USA - Obama 56 (59), McCain 39 (35) | 658 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/13-10/14)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	56.1%		56.7%			56.7%
McCain:	36.5%		34.9%			34.9%
Margin:	19.6%		21.8%			21.8%
Status:	Strong Obama

Another contestant in the “which state can give Obama the biggest win” contest.

Minnesota
Mason-Dixon - Obama 48, McCain 40 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
University of Minnesota - Obama 56 (54), McCain 37 (40) | 451 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 24 - 28 (10/3-10/5)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	51.7%		51.6%			51%
McCain:	40.5%		41.1%			40.8%
Margin:	11.2%		10.5%			10.2%
Status:	Strong Obama

Hmm, up by 19% or up by 8%?  Well, the 8% poll is certainly closer to the average, but Obama’s support doesn’t really match up with most other polls.  Obama still holds a double-digit lead in Minnesota in any case.

Montana
Rasmussen - McCain 50, (52) Obama 46 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 29 (10/1)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	47.9%		46.8%			46.8%
Obama:	44.7%		44.1%			44.1%
Margin:	3.2%		2.7%			2.7%
Status:	Too Close To Call

Not only is Obama still within 5% of McCain in Montana, we get this piece of news from Rasmussen:

Six percent (6%) of McCain voters might vote for a third-party candidate while Obama faces no such threat.

Rasmussen mentions Paul - who is on the ballot, actually against his wishes, courtesy of the Constitution Party - but Libertarian candidate Bob Barr is on the ballot as well.

Nevada
CNN - Obama 52 (51), McCain 45 (46) | 684 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/19-20/21)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	49.7%		49.4%			48.5%
McCain:	44.4%		44.3%			45.6%
Margin:	5.3%		5.1%			2.9%
Status:	Weak Obama

Obama continues to expand his lead in Nevada - a critical swing state in case McCain pulls off the impossible in Pennsylvania (Obama winning All Kerry states except Pennsylvana + Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada still gives Obama 270 Electoral Votes.  Yes, Obama has a path to victory without Ohio, Florida, AND Pennsylvania, if necessary.)  Obama has also hit 50% in 4 straight polls in Nevada.

New Hampshire
Suffolk - Obama 53 (46), McCain 40 (45) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (9/20-9/24)
UNH - Obama 54 (55), McCain 36 (39) | 619 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/24-10/26)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	52.1%		51.6%			51.3%
McCain:	40.6%		41.5%			42.7%
Margin:	11.5%		10.1%			8.6%
Status:	Strong Obama

Something seemed to snap in New Hampshire as we’re suddenly being flooded with double-digit polls for Obama - enough to raise his margin nearly 3% from Monday.  Five straight polls, and six of the last eight polls have shown Obama with a double digit lead.

New Jersey
Research 2000 - Obama 54 (50), McCain 38 (41) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28 (9/9-9/11)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	53.9%		54%			54.3%
McCain:	38.6%		38.8%			38.9%
Margin:	15.3%		15.2%			15.4%
Status:	Strong Obama

Despite all the red arrows, the race in New Jersey is still pretty stable at around a 15% Obama lead.

North Carolina
CNN - Obama 52 (51), McCain 46 (47) | 667 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/19-10/21)
National Journal - Obama 47, McCain 43 | 402 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
Rasmussen - Obama 50 (48), McCain 48 (49) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Oct. 29 (10/26)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	48.4%		48.1%			48.2%
McCain:	46.6%		46.8%			46.9%
Margin:	1.8%		1.3%			1.3%
Status:	Too Close To Call

Is North Carolina beginning to widen for Obama?  Mmm…maybe, but it’s still too early to tell (not that we have much time left to see).  In the last 7 polls, Obama’s lead in the state has been 1%, 2%, 2% 4%, 4%, and 6% with one poll showing a McCain lead of 1%.  So nearly half the most recent polls show Obama with a 4% or greater lead (and one of the 2% polls showing him at 50%)?  I don’t think we’ve seen as many polls showing that much of a lead for 10 days or so.  What does it mean?  I’m not sure we know.  About the only thing we can do here is collect more data.

Ohio
CNN - Obama 51 (50), McCain 47 (46) | 779 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/19-10/21)
National Journal - Obama 48 (41), McCain 41 (42) | 404 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	49%		48.9%			48.9%
McCain:	44.1%		44.2%			44.7%
Margin:	4.9%		4.7%	–		4.2%
Status:	Too Close To Call

Obama inches ever closer to an average of 50% in the state of Ohio, now reaching the 49% mark.  Obama has now led in 11 straight polls in Ohio, as well as 15 of the last 16 polls.  Also Ohio could not have a larger margin and still be a Too Close To Call state.

Pennsylvania
CNN - Obama 55 (47), McCain 43 (46) | 768 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (9/21-9/23)
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (46), McCain 43 (44) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28 (9/16-9/18)
Muhlenberg - Obama 54, McCain 41 | 602 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 29

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	51.9%		51.9%	–		51.3%
McCain:	41.7%		41.5%			41.4%
Margin:	10.2%		10.4%			9.9%
Status:	Strong Obama

This Mason-Dixon poll is the one I was writing about this morning.  To put this poll into prospective, consider this:

• The last poll to have Obama under 50% in Pennsylvania was a Susquehanna poll which had the race at 48% to 40% back on October 16 - 19, and was 15 polls ago, and that was the only poll in the previous 21 polls to show that.
• The last poll to have Obama at 47% or lower was a Muhlenberg poll conducted September 21 - 25 and was 29 polls ago.  It was also the last poll to show the race at 4% or closer.

Given the fact that Mason-Dixon has been known to put out some whoppers before, unless another reputable pollster confirms this, I don’t believe that Mason-Dixon poll at all (and the two other polls released today showing double digit leads doesn’t help them).

South Carolina
NBC - McCain 53, Obama 42 | 400 LV - 5% | Oct. 25 - 28
Survey USA - McCain 52 (55), Obama 44 (51) | 654 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/12-10/13)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	53.4%		54.5%			54.5%
Obama:	41.5%		39.6%			39.6%
Margin:	11.9%		14.9%			14.9%
Status:	Strong McCain

It may be interesting to see if the African-American vote can pull South Carolina to within single digits on election day, but McCain is in no immediate danger in South Carolina unless election day is just a complete landslide.  Having said that, Obama is a couple of good polls from pushing this state from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.

Texas
University of Texas - McCain 51, Obama 40 | 550 RV - 4.2% | Oct. 15 - 22

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	52.9%		53.7%			53.7%
Obama:	41.1%		41.5%			41.5%
Margin:	11.8%		12.2%			12.2%
Status:	Strong McCain

McCain still has a good margin here - it’s over 10%, though for such a red state, he probably wishes his average support was higher than what it is.

Virginia
Marist - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 671 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27
National Journal - Obama 48 (41), McCain 44 (48) | 404 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	50.4%		50.5%			50.6%
McCain:	44%		43.8%			44.4%
Margin:	6.4%		6.7%			6.2%
Status:	Weak Obama

Is Obama’s lead in Virginia starting to tighten?  Three of the last four polls from the state now show only a 4% lead in the state for Obama.  However, there is still an awful lot of very recent polls showing a much wider race, but this may be something to watch over the next few days.

Wisconsin
Survey USA - Obama 55 (51), McCain 39 (43) | 667 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/18-10/19)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	52%		51.5%			51.6%
McCain:	41.1%		41.4%			41.2%
Margin:	10.9%		10.1%			10.4%
Status:	Strong Obama

Wisconsin continues to bounce around 10 or 11%, but this state has been relatively stable for a while.

Overall Thoughts

A few days ago I went through this exercise, and I thought with 5 days to go, I would be a good time to do it again, so here I go:

Currently, my averages show that Obama leads McCain among “Strong” states - states where their lead is at or over 10% - 259 to 124 Electoral Votes.  That’s a good sign for Obama right there that he’s only 11 Electoral Votes shy from winning just including states where he holds an average double-digit lead.

Next, we have the “Weak” States:

Comparing this to Saturday, virtually all the movement has been to Obama: Nevada has gone from Too Close to Call to “Weak Obama”, Arizona has gone from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain,” New Hampshire has gome from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama,” Obama has increased his leads in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico, and Georgia, which was a “Weak McCain” state on Saturday, has dropped to Too Close To Call.  The only movement in McCain’s favor here is that he’s increased his lead in West Virginia.

Including Weak states, Obama’s total has increased while McCain’s has decreased with Obama going from a 286-157 Electoral Vote lead to a 291-142 Electoral Vote lead, which is both the highest total Obama has ever held as well as the lowest total McCain has ever had.

Next, I’ll look at the Too Close To Call states, and like on Saturday, I’ll split them into three groups:

• “likely” states - states where a candidate holds a lead of at least 4%
• “probable” states - states where a candidate leads by between 2% and 3.9%
• “true toss-up” states - states where the lead is under 2%

First up are like Likely states, and each candidate has one this time:

As you can see, both of these states are pretty even in their margin.  The main difference is, however, that Georgia has been heading down while Ohio has been heading up, and indeed, Ohio’s margin on Saturday was Obama by 4.1%.  Instead of being on the border line of “likely” and “probable,” Ohio is on the border of “likely but Too Close To Call” and “Weak Obama.”

Adding these two states to the total makes the Electoral count Obama 311, McCain 157.

Next, it’s onto the “probable” states:

We’ve seen a sharp drop in “probable” states, down from 5 on Saturday to 2 today.  Missouri and Indiana has dropped down into the “true toss-up” category while Nevada has jumped all the way up to “Weak Obama.”

Meanwhile, both candidates have slightly improved their margins in these states since Saturday, with Florida going from 2.1% Obama to 2.6% Obama and Montana going from 2.4% McCain to 3.2% McCain.   However, the very fact that Montana is even in the Too Close To Call category at all has to give McCain heartburn.

Adding these states to the totals changes the totals to Obama 338, McCain 160.

Finally, it’s on to the “true toss-up” states, and this category has grown from 2 states to 4 states, partly thanks to Indiana and Missouri tightenign up:

Some good news and bad news for both candidates here.  First, North Carolina is trending towards Obama, with Obama increasing his margin from 1.3% to 1.8%, but it is still extremely tight.  Meanwhile, McCain has closed the margin in Missouri to under 1% and has even taken a very, very, very tiny lead in Indiana.  North Dakota is still sitting there waiting for people to poll it.  I just don’t think people can really comprehend a state like North Dakota being not only a toss-up but perhaps one of the closest states in the election.

Based on percentages, the current “flip” state this election is actually Virginia now - the first time in forever that it hasn’t been Colorado.  Virginia’s lead in Virginia sits at 6.4%, so for McCain to win, he would need to swing the vote in states, on average, by over 6% from where they are now in only 5 days.  That basically amounts to a tie national popular vote if one looks at the national pollls, where Obama’s margin sits at about 6%.  That would include losing Colorado and Nevada, by the way, as well.

One important measure is by looking at states where candidates are over 50%, and currently that count is Obama 282, McCain 124.  That amounts to all “Strong Obama” states minus Rhode Island*, plus New Mexico, Virginia, and Colorado.  For McCain, it amounts to his “Strong McCain” states and only those states.

* - Rhode Island hasn’t had much polling, and all of the 3 most recent polls failed to push leaners, having both candidates under 50%.  However, Obama still holds a 18.9% lead in the state.

The Obama campaign, fearful that undecides may break heavily towards McCain, have also said that they wouldn’t be comfortable unless they were at 48% in a state (and presumably leading).  Obama’s count in all states where he’s at 48% and leading is 353 Electoral Votes - all “Strong Obama” states, all “Weak Obama” states, plus Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

In states where Obama is over 48% but under 50%, he would need to win the following ratio of undecided voters to get over 50%, assuming no one voted 3rd party:

• Nevada - 5%
• Ohio - 15%
• Florida - 30%
• North Carolina - 32%

In states where Obama leads, but by under 48%, the ratios are this:

• Missouri - 41%
• North Dakota - 49%

And just for kicks, here are states where Obama trails, but McCain is under 50%:

• Montana - 72%
• Arizona - 81%
• West Virginia - 89%
• South Dakota - 97%
• Georgia - 98%

So we basically have 3 groups

1. One group where Obama only needs 1/3 of undecideds to break his way, which even the most pessimistic people think he’ll get at least that much
2. One group where Obama needs about a 50/50 split
3. One group where Obama can’t rely on the undecided split and instead needs a turnout which favors him to win.

Of course, if Obama gets to that 3rd group, he’s already running away with the election.

Well, we might know what pollster the GOP is using to get their numbers (OK, that’s a joke…sort of) with Mason-Dixon releasing a poll this morning showing McCain only down 4% in Pennsylvania, 47-43.  Of course, the issue with this poll is that it’s completely unlike any other poll in the state.

This isn’t the first time Mason-Dixon has released such a poll:

• Michigan - In their Sept. 18 - 23 poll, Mason-Dixon showed Michigan tied, even though polls released at the same time showed the race +5, +7, +7, +8, +10, and +13 in the state
• New Mexico - In their August 13 - 15 poll, they showed McCain up 4% when other polls at the time showed Obama up 4%, 6%, and 13%
• Virginia - In their Oct. 20 - 21 poll, they showed only a 2% Obama lead when other polls at the time showed Obama leads of 10%, 6%, 10%, 9%, 9%, and 8%

To be sure, Mason-Dixon has also released quite a few polls which are right in line with the other polls in the state.  However, Mason-Dixon has a bad habit of having a slight GOP bias and, as I’ve shown above, sometimes a pretty significant GOP bias that amounts to McCain performing anywhere from 5% to 8% better than he is in virutally any other poll released at the time.

Now, 538.com shows Mason-Dixon as slightly above-average compared to other pollsters in the primary, but of course, that’s the primary, where you don’t have to worry about things like…party weighing, for example.

Today I debut my new results table to show changes in the averages.  I have three numbers on this table: the new averages after today, the averages after yesterday, and the averages after Monday.  The Monday numbers will stay there through the election to show what changes are taking place over the course of the week.

I also have tracker arrows next to the numbers from yesterday and Monday.  The numbers show whether the current numbers are lower (red arrow) or higher (green arrow) than the number shown for either yesterday or Monday.  By the way, the margin is based on who is leading, so an up arrow for the margin in a state McCain leads means he’s increased his margin in that state.

In any case, 30 new polls came out today (making it 86 new polls in 3 days).  Once again, a lot of love for battlegrounds, but also some love for the sure thing states.

Also, one final note: Research 2000 released a poll, but my policy, initially set up to address daily tracking polls, stipulates that I don’t include two polls from the same polling firm which overlap, which this poll does with another Indiana Research 2000 poll, so that poll has been left out.  I just wanted to note that this was the case.

New Polls Added Today

Alaska
Rasmussen - McCain 57 (55), Obama 41 (40) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/6)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	55.7%		55%			55%
Obama:	40.1%		39.5%			39.5%
Margin:	15.6%		15.5%			15.5%
Status:	Strong McCain

The Palin effect still looms in Alaska.

Colorado
Associated Press - Obama 50, McCain 41 | 626 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 53 (51), McCain 45 (47) | 774 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	50.8%		50.6%			50.2%
McCain:	44.2%		44.5%			44.5%
Margin:	6.6%		6.1%			5.7%
Status:	Weak Obama

Colorado increasingly looks like a state with an upper-single-digit margin for Obama with recent polls, including these, showing leads of 9%, 8%, 8%, and 12%, with really only Rasmussen showing something different at 4%.  This is also now 9 straight polls and 14 of the last 15 polls which show Obama at or over 50%.

Delaware
Survey USA - Obama 63 (57), McCain 33 (37) | 657 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (9/22-9/23)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	60%		55.8%			55.8%
McCain:	35.5%		39.2%			39.2%
Margin:	24.5%		16.6%			16.6%
Status:	Strong Obama

And Delaware makes it two-for-two for running mates’ states being safe.

Florida
Associated Press - Obama 45, McCain 43 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 51 (51), McCain 47 (46) | 747 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)
Quinnipiac -  Obama 47 (49), McCain 45 (44) | 1,435 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	48.2%		48.3%			48.1%
McCain:	45.5%		45.6%			45.9%
Margin:	2.7%		2.7%	–		2.2%
Status:	Too Close To Call

The three polls today average out exactly to the average after yesterday of 2.7%.  I’d say that’s a good show of consistency for Florida.  Also, Obama has now been over 50% in 3 straight polls, and have led or been tied in 9 straight polls.

Georgia
CNN/Time - McCain 52 (53), Obama 47 (45) | 690 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	49.9%		49.6%			49.9%	–
Obama:	45.1%		44.8%			44.5%
Margin:	4.8%		4.8%	–		5.4%
Status:	Too Close To Call

Georgia remains a 5% race.  This will still be a tough race for Obama to pick off, but it will be a sucker punch to the GOP if he can do it.

Idaho
Harstad - McCain 55, Obama 32 | 502 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 19 - 22

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	62.2%		64.5%			64.5%
Obama:	31.7%		30%			30%
Margin:	24.8%		34.5%			34.5%
Status:	Strong McCain

It might actually be a bit of an accomplishment if Obama could do well enough to not be doubled-up in some of these far west Mountain states where the GOP usually wins by ridiculous margins like 70 to 30 or 80 to 20.

Kansas
Survey USA - McCain 58 (53), Obama 37 (41) | 626 LV - 3..9% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/21-10/22)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	55.3%		53.5%			53.5%
Obama:	38.8%		40.1%			40.1%
Margin:	16.5%		13.4%			13.4%
Status:	Strong McCain

Two polls in a week by the same pollster? Why? This isn’t Missouri or something.  In any case, Kansas is to McCain as Delaware is to Obama.  Safe.

Michigan
Rasmussen - Obama 53 (56), McCain 43 (40) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/8)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	51.9%		51.8%			51.8%
McCain:	40.2%		39.4%			39.4%
Margin:	11.7%		12.4%			12.4%
Status:	Strong Obama

Onoz! Michigan is tightening!  OK, not really.  It’s still a more than solid lead for Obama here.

Minnesota
Rasmussen - Obama 55 (56), McCain 43 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/22)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	51.6%		51%			51%
McCain:	41.1%		40.8%			40.8%
Margin:	10.5%		10.2%			10.2%
Status:	Strong Obama

If there was any hope that Minnesota was tightening up in the last couple of weeks, that hope is about gone for the McCain campaign.

Missouri
CNN/Time - McCain 50 (49), Obama 48 (48) | 825 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (Oct. 11 - 14)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	47.8%		47.7%			47.7%
McCain:	46.9%		46.5%			46.5%
Margin:	0.9%		1.2%			1.2%
Status:	Too Close To Call

Missouri, for whatever reason, is getting neglected by the pollsters.  A mere six polls have been released for the state in the past week.  That may sound a lot until you start comparing to other states (Virginia, for example, has had 8 polls released in just the past 3 days).

However, what polls we have are a mix bag.  In those six polls, 3 show Obama ahead, 2 show McCain ahead, and 1 is a tie.  Missouri, like Indiana, is virtually a true tie and we may be staying up late to see which way this state goes.

Nevada
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 628 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
Research 2000 - Obama 50 (50), McCain 45 (43) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 28 (10/3-10/6)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	49.4%		48.9%			48.5%
McCain:	44.3%		44.8%			45.6%
Margin:	5.1%		4.1%			2.9%
Status:	Weak Obama

As you can see, we’ve seen some major movement in Nevada towards Obama recently, with his average margin in the state going from 2.9% to over 5% in just two days now, making Nevada our newest Weak Obama state.  How long it stays there will depend on whether the next poll shows Obama ahead 5% or more or by less than 5%.

Nevada also has a mix of polls as well, with Suffolk and the AP showing a double digit race, while Rasmussen, Research USA, and Zogby show it as 4% or 5%.  Either way, it’s still an Obama lead, but a 4% lead is obviously less secure than a 10% lead.  5 of the last 6 polls in the state also show Obama at or over 50%.

New Hampshire
Associated Press - Obama 55, McCain 37 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	51.6%		51.1%			51.3%
McCain:	41.5%		42.2%			42.7%
Margin:	10.1%		8.9%			8.6%
Status:	Strong Obama

New Hampshire was looking vulnerable - that is until three polls have come out showing Obama with double digit leads of 11, 16, and now 18.  As a result, New Hampshire has, for the moment, moved back into the Strong Obama category.

New Mexico
Rasmussen - Obama 54 (55), McCain 44 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/13)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	52.4%		51.3%			51.3%
McCain:	43.6%		43.2%			43.2%
Margin:	8.8%		8.1%			8.1%
Status:	Weak Obama

New Mexico has been all but forgotten in poll-land.  It’s gotten fewer polls in the month of October than states such as California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York, and Oklahoma (and has gotten equal treatment with Wyoming).  This can also be illustrated by the fact that the last poll for this state was from…Rasmussen, nearly 2 weeks ago.

Of course, Obama is pretty close to running away with this state, so it’s not surprising people may pass it over, but come on people.

New York
Survey USA - Obama 62 (64), McCain 33 (31) | 633 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/11-10/12)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	61.3%		61%			61%
McCain:	32.6%		32.6%	–		32.6%	–
Margin:	28.7%		28.4%			28.4%
Status:	Strong Obama

Why are people still polling New York?

North Carolina
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 46 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	48.1%		48.1%	–		48.2%
McCain:	46.8%		46.9%			46.9%
Margin:	1.3%		1.2%			1.3%	–
Status:	Too Close To Call

This is what I’d call a stable race.  Two of the six comparisons are tied, and each of the other four are off by only 0.1%.  This remains a very close race, slightly favoring Obama.

Ohio
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 41 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Marist - Obama 48 (49), McCain 45 (45) | 661 LV - 4% | Oct. 24 - 26 (10/5-10/8)
Quinnipiac -  Obama 51 (52), McCain 42 (38) | 1,425 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	48.9%		48.9%	–		48.9%	–
McCain:	44.2%		44.4%			44.7%
Margin:	4.7%		4.5%			4.2%
Status:	Too Close To Call

Here are the last eight poll margins for Obama in Ohio: 3%, 4%, 4%, 4%, 5%, 7%, 9%, and 9%.  We have a bit of tug of war between polls saying that the margin is 4% or lower and those that say it’s over 5%.  In any case, the margin appears to be somewhere in the mid-single-digits.  Obama has led in 13 of the past 14 polls in Ohio.

Pennsylvania
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Franklin & Marshall - Obama 53 (48), McCain 40 (43) | 550(?) LV - 4.2% | Oct. 21 - 26 (9/23-9/28)
Marist - Obama 55 (53), McCain 41 (41) | 713 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/5-10/8)
Quinnipiac -  Obama 53 (53), McCain 41 (40) | 1,364 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	51.9%		51.4%			51.3%
McCain:	41.5%		41.8%			41.4%
Margin:	10.4%		9.6%			9.9%
Status:	Strong Obama

Having the state move from Weak Obama to Strong Obama is obviously not the direction McCain wants this state to move.  After a two day vacation in the Weak Obama category, it looks like Pennsylvania is widening back to a double-digit lead for Obama.  There are now 13 straight polls, and 20 of the last 21 polls, showing Obama at or over 50% in the state.

Utah
Mason-Dixon - McCain 55 (62), Obama 32 (23) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25 (8/13-8/15)

	Today		Last			10/27
McCain:	56.2%		63.5%			63.5%
Obama:	31.4%		28.1%			28.1%
Margin:	24.8%		35.4%			35.4%
Status:	Strong McCain

This poll is significant for several reasons, even though It’s Utah.

1. Along with the above Idaho poll, this makes it so that Obama is not currently being doubled-up in any state.  That would be an amazing feat considering just how red some of these western states can be.

2. Obama is now averaging over 30% in every state.  Ditto the same point as point 1 about how red these states are.  On the other hand, McCain is looking at a sub 30% number in Hawaii.

3. Obama is now within 30% in every state.

In short, on election night, typically even the best Democratic states weren’t slaughters, where the split may be at best 60/40.  Meanwhile, many Republican states could pad the popular vote total by racking up margins of 70/30 or even 80/20.

However, this year Obama appears to have balanced that out, and Obama’s best states are about the same, as far as margin, as McCain’s best states.  Of course, the difference is that McCain’s best states are states like Utah and Idaho when Obama’s are New York and Illinois.

Also, this makes Oklahoma McCain’s best state, with a margin of 28.7%.

Virginia
Associated Press - Obama 49, McCain 42 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 53, McCain 44 | 721 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	50.5%		50.4%			50.6%
McCain:	43.8%		44%			44.4%
Margin:	6.7%		6.4%			6.2%
Status:	Weak Obama

McCain continues to fall in Virginia as Obama pretty much keeps his support level at about 50.5%.  Obama’s lead in the state is now approaching 7% as he’s led in 21 straight polls in the state.

Wisconsin
Research 2000 - Obama 53 (52), McCain 42 (41) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/20-10/21)

	Today		Last			10/27
Obama:	51.5%		51.4%			51.6%
McCain:	41.4%		41.2%			41.2%
Margin:	10.1%		10.2%			10.4%
Status:	Strong Obama

One of these oddities where, due to how the weights on polls change as they age, a new poll pushes the average margin down, even when the poll has a margin larger than the average.

Overall Thoughts

Perhaps the status of the race can be described by sheer stats (only for states which had polls released today):

Weak or Too Close To Call states in which Obama has improved since Monday:

• Colorado
• Florida
• Georgia
• Nevada
• New Hampshire
• New Mexico
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Virginia

Weak or Too Close To Call states in which McCain has improved since Monday:

• Missouri

Meanwhile, here is a comparison of some Obama states vs. McCain states based on the average margin:

• Florida is to Obama (2.7% lead) as Montana is to McCain (2.7% lead)
• Ohio is to Obama (4.7% lead) as Georgia is to McCain (4.8% lead)
• Nevada is to Obama (5.1% lead) as Arizona is to McCain (5.1% lead)
• Colorado and Virginia are to Obama (6.6% and 6.7% lead) as West Virginia is to McCain (6.2% lead)
• New Mexico is to Obama (8.8% lead) as South Dakota is to McCain (8.9%)
• Pennsylvania is to Obama (10.4% lead) as Mississippi is to McCain (10.3% lead)

Just consider those comparisons for a moment.  According to the current margin, McCain coming back to win Pennsylvania would be like Obama picking off Mississippi.  And that’s supposed to be McCain’s big play.

We don’t quite have the polling total as yesterday, but we still bring in a healthy haul of 25 new polls today.  We also have the first change of status for a state since I started doing my daily report, and it’s a state which McCain probably never though would be in contention this year.

New Polls Added Today

Arizona
Arizona State - McCain 46 (45), Obama 44 (38) | 1,019 LV - 3% | Oct. 23 - 26 (9/25-9/28)

The polls coming out of Arizona are almost too good to be true.  We’ve now had 5 recent polls from this state showing the race to be McCain leads of 2, 4, 5, 8, and 2.  These polls have now pushed Arizona to the brink of being a Too Close To Call state.  If Obama has any organization at all in this state, he may just be able to flip it because, really, how much money do you think McCain has invested in Arizona?

Arkansas
Rasmussen - McCain 54 (51), Obama 44 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 (9/22)

Being over 50% in Arkansas since July, McCain looks like he still have Arkansas well within his grasp, regardless of what Dick Morris might say.

Colorado
Insider Advantage - Obama 53 (51), McCain 45 (46) | 636 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 26 (10/20)

This 8% mark matches the POS (that is, Public Opinion Strategies) poll released a couple days ago.  Obama’s margin in Colorado once ahead heads over 6%, making it so that no Weak Obama state is in any imminent danger of dropping into the Too Close To Call category.

Florida
Datamar - Obama 49 (47), McCain 44 (42) | 630 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 25 - 26 (10/12-10/13)
LA Times - Obama 50, McCain 43 | 639 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27

This is the 2nd straight day that polls have come out with a larger margin for Obama than the existing average in the state.  Over the past 2 days we’ve had polls in Florida saying that either the race was tied (Zogby) and that Obama had leads of 4%, 5%, 5%, and 7%.  This strongly suggests that the tightening towards McCain that was occurring last week is now reversing itself, and Obama may be building a lead approaching 5% in the state again.

Indeed, in the last two days alone, the average margin for Obama in Florida has expanded from 2.1% to 2.7%.

However, the LA Times poll appears to be off on one account: It actually shows McCain winning the early vote 49% to 45%.  This is opposite everything I’ve seen anywhere else and is in opposition to the apparent demographics of the early voting segment.  Yet Obama still leads overall, suggesting that Obama’s lead among those who have yet to vote is even larger than 7%, according to the LA Times.

Georgia
Insider Advantage - McCain 48 (47), Obama 47 (48) | 637 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 (10/23)

Say hello to the newest Too Close To Call state, as the average margin in the state falls below 5% for McCain.  How long this will last, I don’t know, since the two most recent polls are both Insider Advantage polls, so if another poll comes out showing the lead at bigger than 5%, this could easily flip back to Weak McCain.  However, a grey Georgia is definitely not what McCain wants to see.

Indiana
Howey-Gauge - McCain 47, Obama 45 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 24
Research 2000 - Obama 48 (46), McCain 47 (46) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25 (9/29-10/3)

You can’t get much closer than this.  The margin is well under 1% in Indiana, with 4 of the past six polls favoring Obama and 2 favoring McCain.  We might be waiting well into the night for Indiana.

Louisiana
SE Louisiana Univ. - McCain 51, Obama 38 | 503 RV - 4.5% | Oct. 20 - 23

This pretty much confirms a Rasmussen poll from a few days ago which says that this race has a margin in the mid-teens in favor of McCain.  It would take a true monumental landslide for McCain to lose this state.

Mississippi
Rasmussen - McCain 53 (52), Obama 45 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 (9/30)

As you can see from the trend, Rasmussen has tended to show the Presidential race in Mississippi a bit closer than most other pollsters.  Even so, McCain has been over 50% in every poll but one (and that poll had 21% undecideds), so this should still be a pretty safe McCain state.

Montana
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25

This is now the 4th straight poll showing Montana to be a bonafide battleground state.  Perhaps more concerning for McCain, it’s also the 3rd straight poll showing him under 50% in the state.

Nevada
Rasmussen - Obama 50 (50), McCain 46 (45) | 700 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 (10/16)
Suffolk - Obama 50, McCain 40 | 450 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/17-9/21)

Not much has changed here for Obama according to Rasmussen.  Meanwhile, Obama increases the average margin to over 4% and is very nearly to an average support level of 49%.  The outcome here is clearly not certain, but it continues to look good for Nevada.  However, the 10% lead in Suffolk is a little larger than we’ve seen everywhere else, as well.

New Hampshire
Mason-Dixon - Obama 50, McCain 39 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25

This poll is right smack dab between the Rasmussen poll and the UNH poll, sharing the 39% McCain number with UNH and the 50% Obama number with Rasmussen.  We now have two pollsters showing this race in double-digits and two pollsters saying that it’s in the mid-single-digit range, so while it’s clear that Obama is ahead in New Hampshire, it’s still unclear by how much.

New Jersey
Strategic Vision - Obama 53 (48), McCain 38 (39) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/26-9/28)

No stray thoughts about picking off New Jersey this year.

North Carolina
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47, McCain 47 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25

One thing is for certain: North Carolina is close.  The last 5 polls have showed 2 McCain leds (though both are Rasmussen), 2 Obama leads and a tie.  Can’t get much closer than that.

Ohio
LA Times - Obama 49, McCain 40 | 644 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27
Survey USA - Obama 49 (50), McCain 45 (45) | 648 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/12-10/13)

Early voting numbers are stellar in this state. Survey USA say 22% have already voted early, with the breakdown 56%-39% in favor of Obama while the LA Times says that 13% have voted early, and the margin there is a similar 57%-35%.

The LA Times poll seems a little overoptimistic.  The last 5 polls released over the past 3 days show margins for Obama of 4%, 4%, 5%, 4%, and the LA Times’ 9%.  Obama maintains a clear lead in the state, but probably not that large of a lead.

Pennsylvania
Insider Advantage - Obama 51, McCain 42 | 588 LV - 4% | Oct. 26
Rasmussen - Obama 53 (54), McCain 46 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 26 (10/6)

This marks some good news and some bad news for McCain.  The good news is that the Rasmussen poll marks a tightening of 6% from Rasmussen’s last poll nearly 3 weeks ago, to bring the race within 6%, the closest it’s been since a Franklin & Marshall poll showed the margin at 5% back in September.

The bad news for McCain is that there is only 1% undecided left and Obama is at 53% in the Rasmussen poll.  Also, it is the first poll to have McCain even over 43% in 23 polls dating back to the last week in September (including the Insider Advantage poll), so that 46% number for McCain is something I’d really like to see confirmed somewhere else before believing it.  These polls also mark 9 straight polls with Obama at or over 50% and 16 out of the last 17 polls.

Virginia
Roanoke College - Obama 48, McCain 39 | 614 LV - 4% | Oct. 19 - 26

Yet another poll showing Obama with a high single-digit lead.  This is the 5th poll (out of 6) in two days showing Obama with at least a 7% lead.  This is the only one of those polls that shows Obama below 50%, but that’s probably because leaners weren’t pushed hard, as this poll still shows 13% undecided.

Obama has now, in just 3 days, increased his average margin over McCain from 5% to 6.4%.  That signifies a significant widening in the polls in Obama’s favor in Virginia.

Vermont
Research 2000 - Obama 57 (55), McCain 36 (36) | 400 LV - 5% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/11-9/14)

In other news: the Sun rises in the East.

Washington
Strategic Vision - Obama 54 (47), McCain 42 (42) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 25 - 26 (9/14-9/16)
Survey USA - Obama 56 (56), McCain 39 (40) | 630 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/12-10/13)

Same ole, same ole in Washington.  Obama maintains his 15% lead or so in the state.

Wisconsin
Strategic Vision - Obama 50 (49), McCain 41 (40) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/26-9/28)

Strategic Vision typically leans Republican, and even they give Obama a pretty significant lead in Wisconsin.  I’m not even sure McCain is still really contesting Wisconsin anymore, either.

Overall Thoughts

Is what McCain is doing in Pennsylvania working?  Yes and No, maybe.  We’ve seen some very slight narrowing in the polls in Pennsylvania - enough to knock the average margin below 10%.  However, this is more due to some undecideds floating to McCain than Obama losing support.  However, McCain can’t just move undecides as the polls over the past month clearly show Obama has over 50% support.  He must also chip away at the support Obama already has - something which he hasn’t been able to accomplish yet.

In other states, we see continuing Obama gains in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia while McCain gains some ground in Indiana, though still trails.  Montana and North Carolina pretty much stayed put.

McCain is still looking at a map where 286 Electoral Votes will almost certainly go to Obama, with at least 311 likely heading his way.  The increase in Obama’s support in Florida also pushes that state closer to Obama, which would push his total up to 328.

Meanwhile, McCain is hardly gaining anywhere, and is losing ground in Weak Obama states, Lean Obama states, and even his own states as Georgia falls into the Too Close To Call category and his own home state of Arizona is on the brink of following suit.  Meanwhile, Mississippi takes a step closer from leaving the red states and becoming a pink state.

There just doesn’t seem to be any movement anywhere in any amount sufficient to even make McCain competitive on election day as of today, 1 week out from Election Day.

31, count them, 31 new polls released today, including 3 for Florida, 3 for Missouri, and 5 for Virginia.

New Polls Added Today

Arizona
Northern Arizona - McCain 49, Obama 41 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 18 - 27
Rasmussen - McCain 51 (59), Obama 46 (38) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 26 (9/29)

It’s now confirmed: Arizona is now in danger for McCain.  If McCain weren’t the nominee, this state may already be blue.  McCain is up by 8% in the Northern Arizona poll (still not great considering it’s his home state), but that poll was conducted over 9 days as well.

California
Rasmussen - Obama 61 (56), McCain 34 (40) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 25 (10/9)

For those of you worried about whether Obama could rack up a 20% win in California.

Colorado
Rasmussen - Obama 50 (51), McCain 46 (46) | 1000 LV - 3% | Oct. 26 (10/19)

Colorado has now turned into Obama’s most vulnerable “official” state, holding an average margin of under 6%.  However, 6 straight polls, and 11 of the last 12 polls have Obama at 50% or higher, so even if the margin is close and perhaps closing, Obama still appears to be clear of the 50% mark.

Florida
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (48), McCain 47 (49) | 1000 LV - 3% | Oct. 26 (10/19)
Suffolk - Obama 49 (46), McCain 44 (42) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 26 (9/27-9/30)
Zogby - Obama 47, McCain 47 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

These three Florida polls don’t really change the situation very much, and increase the average margin for Obama by 0.1%.  So Obama still leads Florida by about 2%.  Perhaps the biggest nugget here is Rasmussen showing a 5% swing towards Obama in Florida over the past week, though that may be more of a correction than an actual swing.

Indiana
Zogby - McCain 50, Obama 42 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

Amazingly Indiana remains in the lean Obama side for now after this poll.  I’m not surprised by a poll showing McCain ahead in Indiana, but I am surprised by one showing McCain ahead by such a wide margin.  This is also counter the latest 3 polls from Indiana all showing Obama ahead.  The last poll to show McCain ahead in this state is a two week old Rasmussen poll which had McCain up by a similar 7 point margin.

Indiana may end up being one of those states where who is right may depend on likely voter models more than anything.

Iowa
Marist - Obama 52 (51), McCain 42 (41) | 645 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 24 (9/18-9/21)

Obama remains on cruise control in Iowa.

Missouri
Rasmussen - Obama 48 (49), McCain 47 (44) | 1000 LV - 3% | Oct. 26 (10/19)
Survey USA - Obama 48 (51), McCain 48 (43) | 672 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 25 - 26 (10/11-10/12)
Zogby - Obama 48, McCain 46 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

These three polls both suggest two things, neither particularly good for Obama:  First, that his cap in Missouri heading into the final week is 48%.  All three polls peg him at 48%, which is good…as long as more than 4% of the electorate votes for someone other than yourself or your main competitor; Second, that McCain is picking up many of the undecideds, as well as some of Obama’s soft supporters.  Rasmussen has McCain’s numbers improving by 3%, while Survey USA has his numbers improving by 5%.  This could make winning Missouri increasingly tough for Obama.

Nevada
Zogby - Obama 48, McCain 44 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

A smidgen better than average in Nevada, but nothing out of the ordinary here.  Obama holds onto a slim lead in the state.

New Hampshire
Marist - Obama 50 (51), McCain 45  (45) | 655 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 23 (9/17-9/21)
University of New Hampshire - Obama 55 (54), McCain 39 (39) | 698 LV - 3.7% | Oct. 24 - 26 (10/18-10/22)

We have an interesting set of numbers in New Hampshire in recent days.  First, we have a pair of UNH polls released this week showing 15% and 16% leads in the state for Obama.  You would think that if anyone knew New Hampshire, University of New Hampshire would.  However, we also have polls by Marist and Rasmussen showing the race to be a much, much loser 4-5% contest.  Obviously someone’s weighing method is off here.

New York
Siena - Obama 62 (58), McCain 31 (36) | 721 LV - 3.6% | Oct. 19 - 21 (9/28-9/30)

I would laugh hysterically if Obama doubled up McCain in New York.  I want McCain to be sub-30% here.  For once let’s have a result for the republican like the Democrat usually gets in a place like Utah.

North Carolina

PPP - Obama 49 (51), McCain 48 (44) | 1,038 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 25 - 26 (10/18-10/19)
Rasmussen - McCain 49 (50), Obama 48 (48) | 1000 LV - 3% | Oct. 26 (10/23)
Zogby - Obama 50, McCain 46 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

We have a mish-mash of polls from North Carolina today, ranging from a 4% Obama lead in Zogby to a 1% McCain lead in Rasmussen.  All of this averages out to no change in the overall margin, which stays at 1.3% in favor of Obama.

I should note that, in the last 17 polls, only 2 have shown Obama behind, both by Rasmussen released in the last 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Rasmussen poll released just last week had a 3% Obama lead.  Overall, this state still leans Obama, but turnout will mean everything on Election Day.

Ohio
Rasmussen - Obama 49 (47), McCain 45 (49) | 1000 LV - 3% | Oct. 26 (10/19)
Zogby - Obama 50, McCain 45 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

These polls pretty much confirm that the race in Ohio remains about a 4-5% lead for Obama in the state - not too bad of a place to be a week before Election Day.  Ohio may yet reach the “Weak Obama” boundary by election day if it gets a couple of good polls.

Oklahoma
TVPoll - McCain 62 (64), Obama 35 (32) | 720 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 24 - 26 (Oct. 19 - 20)

Why someone is spending money to poll Oklahoma, much less on a weekly basis, is beyond me.

Oregon
Survey USA - Obama 57 (57), McCain 38 (40) | 672 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 25 - 26 (10/11-10/12)

And Oregon used to be close. Not anymore.

Pennsylvania
Temple - Obama 52 (47), McCain 43 (40) | 761 LV - 3.6% | Oct. 20 - 26 (3/27-4/9)

Pennsylvania flip-fops back to Weak Obama, but just barely.  Obama effectively still holds an average 10% lead here.

Virginia
ABC/Washington Post - Obama 52 (49), McCain 44 (46) | 784 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 22 - 25 (9/18-9/21)
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (54), McCain 47 (44) | 1000 LV - 3% | Oct. 26 (10/16)
Survey USA - Obama 52 (51), McCain 43 (45) | 671 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 25 - 26 (10/18-10/19)
Virginia Commonwealth - Obama 51 (39), McCain 40 (47) | 817 LV - 4% | Oct. 20 - 22 (5/12-5/18)
Zogby - Obama 52, McCain 45 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

This may be an exercise of “Which of These Doesn’t Belong with the Others.”  We have a polls showing Obama up by 8%, up by 9%, up by 11%, and up by 7%.  Then we have Rasmussen which shows just a 4% lead.  Maybe he’s pushing leaners harder, but it does seem like the odd poll out.

It also has the reverse trend of the other two pollsters which have surveyed the state recently, with ABC/Washington post showing Obama gaining 5% on McCain since last month and Survey USA showing Obama gaining on McCain by 3% since last week.  However, Rasmussen shows Obama losing ground by 6% in the last week.

Nevertheless, all 5 of these polls show Obama with at least 51% support - a place he would gladly be, regardless of the margin.

Washington
Washington Poll - Obama 55, McCain 34 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 18 - 26

Washington completes the West Coast triple for Obama.  The entire Pacific coast is blue, blue, blue.

West Virginia
Zogby - McCain 50, Obama 40 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 26

Zogby continues the trend of West Virginia starting to fade away for Obama after a couple of promising polls earlier in the month or Obama there.

Overall Thoughts

Not much has changed yet over the past 3 days.  Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida still look uncertain while Ohio and Virginia look increasingly strong for Obama.  Obama probably should, when all is said and done, have at least 306 Electoral Votes in the bag, with other states piling in based on turnout.

By the way, after today, I’ll start having 3 sets of averages: the new average based off of that day’s polls, the previous average, and the average as it was on Tuesday, a week before the election.  I’m doing that to show the overall change and drift over the course of the week.

Of course, tomorrow, the 2nd and 3rd numbers will be the same, so I won’t split them out quite yet, but starting Wednesday, you’ll have 3 sets of numbers to compare against each other.

Yesterday I mentioned a few times in my daily wrap up about what I called the “landslide” scenario.  I want to talk about what I mean, and generally what other scenarios are possible on election day.

Scenario A: The Polls Tell the Story

In this first scenario, the election ends up turning out just about like what the polls say: Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio at least, with Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana potentially tossed on for good measure, probably in that order of likelihood.  That gives Obama between 306 and 375 Electoral Votes.

Scenario B: The Landslide

This scenario suggests that Obama’s support is being underestimated in the polling, and that he’s going to do even better than polls suggest.  Under this scenario, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, and West Virginia will almost certainly fall, giving Obama 401 Electoral Votes, with an extreme landslide probably starting to turn over states like South Dakota, Arizona, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Arkansas, giving Obama probably his likely absolute total best case scenario best of about 434 Electoral Votes.   If he gets really lucky, he can pick off Texas to boot up his total to 468.

Scenario C: The Undecideds Break for McCain

I consider this probably about the 2nd most likely scenario in the election, after the first scenario, and that is this: what Obama shows in the poll is what he’s going to get, and that McCain is going to get his number + whatever undecideds are left.

That would still put all Strong and Weak Obama states in Obama’s category, given that he’s over 50% in all of them, plus maybe Ohio, but that’s about it.  Obama would be looking at probably about a 286 or 306 Electoral Vote total.  Not as big as some might expect given the polls, but it’s still a win.

Scenario D: The Silent Republicans

This is probably the least likely scenario, but it’s the one McCain must have if he wants to win.  This scenario dictates that Obama’s numbers are being overestimated in the polls, and that most if not all of his “weak” states - Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico - will all ultimately fall for McCain, with Obama only winning his “strong” states.  This would give McCain a stunning 283-255 victory on Election Night.

We’re now counting off fingers when it comes to how many days are left until the election.  The numbers coming out this weekend will be crucial when comparing numbers that come out next weekend to see if the race breaks one way or the other in the final weekend.

New Polls Added Today

Arizona
Project New West - McCain 44, Obama 40 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
Zimmeran & Associates - McCain 44, Obama 42 |408 LV - 4/9% | Oct. 16 - 19

If these polls are correct, this instantly puts Arizona in play on election day under a landslide scenario.  The change in the averages is so large because these are the first polls in the state since the end of September, largely because everyone assumed that it was safe McCain.

However, while Rasmussen showed the state as +21 for McCain at the time, it should be noted that an Arizona State poll taken at the same time only showed McCain ahead by 7%.  It is not inconceivable that the Rasmussen poll was an outlier and that this state has been hanging in the single digits all along.

I should note that both of these polls come from Democratic leaning pollsters, but to have any polls this close in the state is amazing, short of polling malpractice on the pollster’s parts.  It would be nice to have some non-partisan and/or media polls for Arizona, though, and given these results, I think it’s not a reach to say that we should expect to see some put into the field next week.

Connecticut
University of Connecticut - Obama 56, McCain 31 | 502 LV - 4.4% | Oct. 18 - 22

And yet another entrant into the “which state will Obama win by the widest margin?” contest.

Georgia
Mason-Dixon - McCain 49, Obama 43 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 23

Georgia remains McCain’s most vulnerable “weak” state, and Mason-Dixon seems to confirm this.  What may be worse for McCain is that Mason-Dixon has had a pro-McCain bias as compared to most other polls, though the degree to which they’re tilted towards McCain seems to vary state to state.  In any case, if any state is going to be a shocker on Election Day, Georgia would be at or near the top of the list.

Iowa
Mason-Dixon - Obama 51, McCain 40 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 23
Research 2000 - Obama 54 (55), McCain 39 (39) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 19 - 22 (9/29-9/30)

Research 2000 suggests that little has changed in Iowa from 3 weeks ago or so.  Meanwhile, both of these polls show Obama over 50% and McCain mired at or below 40%.  This just makes McCain’s recent trips into Iowa look all the more foolhardy.

Mississippi
University of South Alabama - McCain 46, Obama 33 | 405 LV - 5% | Oct. 13 - 23

A 13% lead in Mississippi by McCain isn’t all that much of a surprise, though the poll clearly didn’t push leaners, as 21% are still unaccounted for in this poll - way too many for a poll this late.  The other thing to note is that the margin is similar to that of the Wicker Senate race which most other polls have shown to be close single-digits.  Again, that could be due to not pushing leaners as well.

Missouri
Mason-Dixon - McCain 46, Obama 45 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 23

Missouri remains in competition with North Carolina as the most toss-up of the toss-up states, with the average margin between the two candidates still under 2%.  This poll obviously does nothing to change that.  As I noted above, Mason-Dixon does tend to have a slight pro-McCain bias, though this poll isn’t necessarily out of the ordinary either.  The good thing for Obama is that Missouri and North Carolina are just the difference between a 349 Electoral Vote night and a 375 Electoral Vote night.

New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire - Obama 54 (45), McCain 39 (47) | 725 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 18 - 22 (9/14-9/21)

This is s surprisingly large margin for a New Hampshire poll, but UNH has a tendency to have numbers that are right in line with most other pollsters.  However, this time they seem to be the odd ones out as the other two recent polls in the state have Obama up by 7% and up by 4%.  This is the first poll showing a double-digit Obama lead in the state since Survey USA in the first week of the month.

I tend to doubt that Obama is up by this much, though that doesn’t mean he isn’t still in good position in the state: he’s been at or over 50% in 7 straight polls in the state - consisting of every poll conducted in October.

Ohio
University of Akron - Obama 45, McCain 41 | 1,213 RV - 2.8% | Sept. 24 - Oct. 19

This is a rather strange poll, interviewing 613 people whom they had interviewed before (the same people), and then supplementing the sample with another 600 random voters.  The numbers in the poll seem pretty low - 14% being undecided or voting third party is quite a bit - but the margin is the same as the polling average.

Virginia
PPP - Obama 52 (51), McCain 43 (43) | 1,231 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 21 - 23 (10/6-10/7)

The main thing this poll tells us is that the race in Virginia has remained essentially unchanged since at least 2 weeks ago, with Obama holding an overall average of around 5% or so in the state.  No poll has shown Obama behind in the state since a Mason-Dixon poll released at the first of the month, and they’ve since released a poll showing Obama ahead in Virginia.

West Virginia
Research 2000 - McCain 49, Obama 43 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 24

West Virginia remains in play for Obama under a landslide scenario, with McCain holding a 6% lead or so.  However, don’t necessarily expect West Virginia to be blue on Election Day.

Wisconsin
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (54), McCain 44 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 23 (10/6)

There is a small drop in Obama’s numbers in this poll (though they actually drop to closer to his average in the state), but the fundamentals remain the same: Obama is over 50% and McCain is under 45%.  McCain may still have more luck fighting Obama in a state like Wisconsin than Pennsylvania, but McCain probably needs the extra 11 Electoral Votes that Pennsylvania provides at this point.

Starting with the 10 day to go mark, I’ll start listing all the polls that I’ve added to the database each day, and how they’ve affected the averages for each state, and my thoughts on the state of the race.

First, it’s the polls I’ve added today (some of these are polls that I had missed earlier):

New Polls Added Today

Alabama
Capital Survey - McCain 54 (55),  Obama 34 (35) | 606 LV - 4% | Oct. 15 - 16 (9/3-9/9)

Nothing particular of note here.  McCain remains way ahead and 20% is the same margin as the last Capital Survey poll, which was conducted in early September.

Arkansas
Research 2000 - McCain 52, Obama 41 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 21 - 22

Still a long way out for Obama, and probably not a state he could flip even in a landslide scenario.  However, if Obama were able to grab states like Georgia and West Virginia and started reaching for other states, Arkansas would be one of the first in line.

Colorado
Public Opinion Strategies - Obama 52 (41), McCain 40 (44) | 500 LV - 4.4% | Oct. 21 - 23 (8/11-8/13)

This polls just shows how this race has changed int he two months since the Republican Convention, going from a 3% McCain lead to a 12% Obama lead.  A double digit lead is kind of on the high end for Colorado: the last pollster to give Obama such a lead in Colorado was PPP almost 2 weeks ago.  However, this appears to be from under-estimating McCain’s numbers than over-estimating Obama’s, as the 52% number is consistent with each of the previous 4 and 9 of the previous 10 Colorado polls.

It’s looking pretty much like Obama is at or over 50% in Colorado, which means that it doesn’t matter what the ultimate margin is, Obama is likely to win this state.  I should also note that Public Opinion Strategies is a GOP polling agency, so it’s not like it should have any pro-Obama bias.

Illinois
Research 2000 - Obama 59 (56), McCain 35 (36) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 20 - 23 (9/15-9/18)

This is a big yawner of a poll from Obama’s home state.  The only question here might be who wins the contest between Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, and Illinois for most pro-Obama state (not counting DC).

Kentucky
Research 2000 - McCain 55 (53), Obama 39 (39) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 19 - 21 (10/14-10/16)

Well, it’s Kentucky.  This poll pretty much just confirmed what we already knew: McCain holds between as 12% and 15% lead here, and nothing short of a 400 EV+ victory for Obama would even put this state into contention.

Massachusetts
Suffolk University - Obama 53 (47), McCain 34 (38) | 400 RV - 5% | Oct. 20 - 22 (7/31-8/3)

Obama pulling in only 53% in Massachusetts might be worrying…until you see that McCain is only pulling in 34%.  I don’t know why almost 13% of people are unaccounted for in this poll.  Nevertheless, Obama still gained 10% on McCain from this pollster’s last poll, conducted during the Middle Ages.

Minnesota
St. Cloud State - Obama 42, McCain 37 | 509 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 14 - 22

I hate polls like this. Not because it shows it close, but because something is obviously wrong if you still have 21% undecided half-way through October.  And it drives the average number of both candidates unnaturally down as a result.  And I also hate polls taken over more than 3 or 4 days.  That’s why I think one of the adjustments I make next time (assuming there is a next time) is to perhaps use the mid-point date of a poll instead of the finishing date.

In any case, this poll probably averages out with that wacky Big Ten poll showing Obama nearly 20% ahead.

Missouri
Research 2000 - Obama 48 (46), McCain 47 (47) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 20 - 23 (9/22-9/24)

Some slight narrowing because the lead is only 1%, but then again the trend is +2% in favor to Obama, so the poll is still good for Obama in that respect.  This remains one of the closest states remaining on the board.

New Jersey
Marist - Obama 56 (48), McCain 39 (45) | 628 LV - 4% | Oct. 20 - 21 (9/5-9/8)

To think, we were once briefly worried about New Jersey.  The only sad part of this is that it gives McCain no incentive to try to waste money in the NYC media market in a futile bid to pick it off.

New York
Marist - Obama 64 (46), McCain 29 (48) | 527 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 21 - 22 (4/3-4/4)

It’s obvious Obama is going to win New York, but it still feels good that he’s now over 60% and McCain is under 1/3.  And yes, back in the Bronze Age, Marist had a poll which actually had McCain ahead in New York.

Ohio
University of Cincinnati - Obama 49 (46), McCain 46 (48) | 886 LV - 3.3% | Oct. 18 - 22 (10/4-10/8)

This is a bigger poll than what it looks like at first glance.  The 3% margin barely moves the numbers in the average, pushing Obama’s lead down 0.1% to a flat 4%.  However, the pollster - University of Cincinnati - has been one of the few pollsters (along with Rasmussen) who has been very, very conservative on Obama in Ohio.

In Cincy’s last polls in the State, they had McCain ahead by 2% a mere 2 weeks ago and had McCain ahead by 4% and 6% in September.  The only time they had Obama ahead was by 1% all the way back in February.  So the fact that this poll has flipped from a 2% McCain lead to a 3% Obama lead is very significant.

That effectively leaves Strategic Vision, a GOP pollster, and Rasmussen, a pollster who for some reason also has a built in anti-Obama bias in Ohio, as the last pollsters who still have Obama behind in this state.

Oklahoma
TVPoll - McCain 64 (63), Obama 32 (32) | 763 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 19 - 20 (10/10-10/12)

Oklahoma is one of the few states where McCain continues to increase his margin.  Oklahoma is McCain’s 3rd strongest state, and there is no way Obama has a chance here under any scenario.

South Dakota
Research 2000 - McCain 50, Obama 41 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22- 24

This poll confirms a Mason-Dixon/Argus Leader poll from earlier in the month showing Obama within single-digits of McCain in South Dakota.  The non-far west northwest states (Montana, and the Dakotas) have been somewhat unpredictable in polling and often leave quite a few undecideds, and that’s the case once again here.

Obama is probably looking at a 400 Electoral Vote night if he takes South Dakota, and he has a better chance in both Montana and North Dakota, but if you see those two fall, keep your eye on South Dakota as well.  Taking this trio would only give the same number of Electoral Votes as Colorado by itself, but it would land a devestating blow on GOP morale around the country.

Tennessee
Research 2000 - McCain 54, Obama 38 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 21 - 22

It’s hard to believe that Tennessee was a battleground state in 1992, 1996, and 2000 (and to a lesser extent in 2004).  Many people still see Tennessee as a battleground on the same level as Missouri.  However, North Carolina is now that battleground, as Tennessee has become as reliably red as Virginia and North Carolina used to be.  Tennessee is now more comparable to a state like South Carolina than it is Missouri now.

Overall Thoughts

The vast majority of the polling today was for states of which we already know the outcome (unless it’s just a complete tsunami for Obama).  However, we did have polls in 4 legitimate battleground: Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, and South Dakota.

While Obama’s chance in South Dakota is slim, it has been confirmed that this state could feasibly be in play in a rout scenario, so if you start seeing West Virginia and Georgia fall for Obama, keep an eye on South Dakota.

Meanwhile, both Colorado and Ohio had overall good news for Obama, with Obama having a double-digit lead from a GOP pollster in Colorado, and his first lead in the University of Cincinnati poll since the primaries ended in Ohio.

Missouri was basically a wash as Obama improved his standing from the last poll done by Research 2000, but the lead is still only 1%

In the end, not a heck of a lot has changed, which of course is bad news for John McCain.

Note: There was an Arizona poll released today as well, but I could never find any data on how many people were polled. Once I find out, I’ll add that poll as well.

Starting today, I’m going to start posting daily round-ups, either late at night or first thing the next morning recording what polls I entered into the database that day were, and what changes on the numbers they created (as well as my thoughts on those changes).

To give you an idea of where the race stands right now heading to the 10th day to go, the Electoral College count including just “strong” states for each candidate - states where their average lead is at or over 10% - currently sits at Obama 255 McCain 134.

Next we have the “weak” states:

These 7 states are basically the secondary battleground states - states that should fall where they’re at now unless something big happens in the next 10 days or there is a landslide on election day.  If a landslide occurs for Obama, states that seem like they should be McCain’s like Georgia or West Virginia may be put into jeopardy.

Including these states in the count gives Obama a 286-157 Electoral Vote lead over McCain.  This is obviously why McCain desperately needs a change in the race in the final 10 days since if things stay the same: he’ll lose before we even get to address the real battleground states.

At this point, I think it might be wise to break down Too Close to Call states into three sub-categories: “likely” states, “probable” states and “true tossup” states.  States in the “likely” category are states in which a candidate holds between a 4% and 4.9% lead.  These are states which could very easily move into the candidate’s “weak” category given a couple of good polls.

Today we only have one such state:

This, of course, is a very important Too Close To Call state because it has 20 Electoral Votes, and an Obama win here would effectively offset any sort of Pennsylvania surprise by McCain on election day (however unlikely that might be).

If I add this state to the total, Obama increases his lead over McCain to 306-157.

Next, on to the “probable” states.  These are states that should vote for the person leading, but it’s still close enough that one can’t be sure.  These are states where a candidate leads by between 2% and 3.9% and today we have 5 of them:

One thing to note here is that all of these states, except perhaps Nevada, are right on the lower-border for this group, meaning that while still listed as “probable,” they’re still quite in the air.  In only two of these states does a candidate break 48%: Obama in both Missouri and Nevada, which has to be a good sign for Obama there.  Meanwhile, Montana is the most toss-up out of all of these, given that there are still nearly 10% undecided or voting 3rd party with only a 2.4% margin between the two candidates.

Throwing these states into the pot increases Obama’s lead to 360-160 over McCain.

Finally, it’s on to the “true toss-ups,” which are states where the margin is under 2%.  Today, we only have two of them:

Both of these are promising to be barn burners, especially North Dakota which has a 0.3% margin between candidates, almost 12% undecided or voting 3rd party, and North Dakota doesn’t have voter registration: if you show up with an ID proving you live in North Dakota and are 18, you can vote.  North Carolina is the real prize in this group, though, with it’s 15 Electoral Votes.  Obama has held a pretty consistent lead here, but it’s been very, very slim as one can tell by the average.

Overall, Obama holds a commanding lead.  The “flip” state in the election - that is the state which would have to flip to give McCain the victory - is Colorado (as it always seems to be).  The problem for McCain is that Obama holds an over 5% lead there.  Even by the most optimistic estimates, a ground game can only add about 5% to your total, and to make things worse, Obama is the one with the ground game this year.

This means that McCain needs some event that will shift the polls towards him by at least 5% in swing states.  That might mean he has to swing national polls by more than 5% since such an event might rile up his base once again which might increase his numbers in red states, but won’t help him in the Electoral College.  That means we’re talking about needing to shift the polls, on average, by 1/2% per day every day until election day.  That’s a pretty tall order.

Barring some sort of devestating event in the last 10 days or some sort of shock on election day, Obama is poised to win, probably win big, and potentially run away with it.

We have two sets of polls released this morning, and either Obama has suddenly shot well ahead in some states, but are some of these numbers off?

First, let’s look at the pretty reasonable numbers.  Quinnipiac surveyed Florida, showing Obama up 5%, 49-44%.  That’s a bit higher than most recent polls, but it’s still within the realm of possibility.  Both pollsters also surveyed Pennsylvania, with Quinnipiac showing Obama ahead there by 13% while the Big Ten Network shows him up by 11%.  Again, both of those polls are well within reason.

The Big Ten Network also surveyed Illinois, which shows a 29% lead for Obama, Iowa, whish shows a 13% lead for Obama, Michigan, which shows a 22% lead for Obama - that’s quite large, but plausible given that McCain has completely pulled out of the state now - and Wisconsin with a 13% lead.  All of those are at least inline with current polls or plausible given the situation.

Now, I’m separating out Ohio.  At first I thought the Ohio numbers - Quinnipiac showing Obama up by 14% and Big Ten showing Obama up by 12% - were both wrong.  But then when I looked at the recent Ohio numbers, Suffolk also had a recent poll showing Obama up 9%.  the problem is that several other recent polls show numbers such as Obama by 4%, McCain by 2%, and McCain by 1%.

So what’s going on here?  It looks like we’re now having the same problem in Ohio as we’ve had in the past in both Florida and North Carolina: two different sets of likely voter models, one of which is very favorable to McCain and one of which is very favorable to Obama.  As a result, we have one grouping of three polls where the results range from +9 to +14 for Obama, and another grouping of three polls where the range is from +2 McCain to +4 Obama.  Which is right?  There really isn’t any good way to know.  And we have reputable pollsters in each group as well.

My hunch is to actually agree with the polls showing a near-tied race.  The first reason is because Quinnipiac has tended to show larger margins for Obama than other pollsters anyway.  The second reason is that, at least this time around, the Big Ten polls appear to be greatly favoring Obama as well, as you’ll see in a second.

Next, on to the states where the polling definitely seems off, and both of these are Big Ten polls.  There are a couple of states which seem just way off when looking at their numbers.

This poll shows Obama up 19% in Minnesota.  This lead just seems way too big.  Most polls in the state show the lead to be between about 6 and 12%.  The Star Tribune at the start of the month was really the only recent poll showing such a margin, and their more recent numbers have narrowed it down to a more realistic margin.

Second, this poll shows Obama up 10% in Indiana.  Now, having a poll showing Obama ahead in Indiana isn’t unheard of: the most recent PPP poll showed Obama up by 2% there.  But by and large, most polls in the state have shown a consistent McCain lead in the state, not an Obama one, to say nothing about a double-digit Obama lead.

So I think Quinnipiac is either right or at least plausible on 2 out of 3 polls, but Big Ten blows it on at least 2 and as many as 4 of their 8 polls.  Since I don’t make judgement calls about what polls I stick into the database, these are still going in, but I thought I would express my thoughts about these polls as I do.