One of the things that I’ve found out about my current methodology is that it is very resistant to change once they have a lot of state polls at once.
In a way, that’s intentional, but the methodology was set up to accommodate 1 or 2 polls in any particular state a week and not 6 or 7. As a result, polls from a week or two ago, which otherwise I wanted to keep propped up due to the lack of polling, are now making it harder for a slew of recent polls that all say the same thing to change the status of a state.
Take North Carolina for example. That trio of bad polls for Obama from 2 weeks ago are still dragging him down in that state. Yes, those polls are only counted at 1/3 strength right now, but a poll with a 20% lead counted a 1/3 strength can still pull a lot of weight around. Yes, North Carolina is now finally a Too Close To Call state, but it probably should have occurred sooner than it did, and the calculated margin in the state may still be larger than what it is in reality as well.
While I don’t think it’s particularly proper to change my methodology at this point in the race, this is yet another thing that I may wish to consider when and if I do this in 2012.
Having said all of that, Obama may finally be looking at breaking through this week, or maybe next, despite the resistance of states to shift based on the above methodological bugs (or features, depending on your point of view). Five lean Obama states, holding 67 Electoral Votes, are closer to becoming “Weak Obama” states than they are lean McCain states. The question is whether Obama can get enough state polls which show him far enough ahead in any, some, most, or all of those states to actually make them light blue on the map.
If all five states were to switch to Weak Obama in the next couple of weeks, that would push Obama’s official total up to 269, which would, of course, mean that any other state would give him an Electoral College win, and at worst he ties which, the way it’s looking, would mean that the House would make him President if all House Democrats vote for him (which they should).
But even if Obama doesn’t get them all, he can still start adding to his total. If both states which are currently within 1% or less of becoming Weak Obama states actually get there, Obama would jump to 229, which would give Obama a 66 Electoral Vote head start on McCain.
Also good for Obama is that virtually all of McCain’s lean states are closer to switching to lean Obama than they are to switching to Weak McCain. McCain’s states where his lead is under 2.5% account for 76 Electoral Votes. If they were all to switch to lean Obama, the count with leaners would put Obama just shy of 350 Electoral Votes.
This is a very dangerous time for McCain, where the election could really start to get away from him. As Nate over at 538 notes, polling wise, this is the strongest position Obama has been in since the start of the election, which is exactly where he wants to be with only 5 weeks to go.
