I outlined the crazyness in the polling in North Carolina last night, but that crazyness has now apparently extended to Virginia and Florida.
Look at the last 5 polls in Virginia, all conducted between 9/10 and 9/15:
- McCain +9
- Obama +4
- Obama +2
- Tied
- McCain +7
Again, it is statistically inconsistent to have polls both showing a tie or slight Obama lead as well as a significant McCain lead. It just doesn’t make sense.
This disease has also shown up in Florida where the last 5 polls there, all conducted between 9/11 and 9/17 show:
- McCain +5
- Tied
- Tied
- Tied
- McCain +6
That’s not as bad as North Carolina or even Virginia, but again, the chances that all of these polls are correct seems low. If we went with the majority for all 3 states, then North Carolina would be within 3% or so, Obama would be ahead in Virginia, and Florida is tied. But there is not only a poll contradicting these, but several polls doing so.
I’d really like to know how different pollsters manage to get so different results? Part of it could just be weighting for Likely voters, and the +6 Florida poll is also of “adults” and not registered or likely voters, but the fact that we keep getting such different poll results is crazy.
