Obama 291 McCain 132 Too Close To Call 115
McCain by 10%+ McCain by 5% - 9.9% Within 4.9% Obama by 5% - 9.9% Obama by 10%+

Final Week in Review and Final Prediction

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on November 04, 2008
General / No Comments

Here is a list of all polls for all states which were released this week.  If a pollster released more than one poll for any given state this week, I’m only listing the most recent one.

I also have two averages: the weighted average that my code uses, and a straight up average of all the polls listed for the state.

Week in Review

Alabama (9 Electoral Votes)
Survey USA - McCain 61, Obama 36 | 650 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28

Weighted Average: McCain 59% Obama 35.2% McCain+23.8%
Week Average McCain 61% Obama 36% McCain+25%

Oklahoma is McCain’s strongest state, and is probably the best chance McCain has of doubling Obama somewhere.

Projection: John McCain

Alaska (3 Electoral Votes)
Rasmussen - McCain 57, Obama 41 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28
Dittman - McCain 56, Obama 37 | 489 LV - 4.8% | Oct. 24 - 29
Research 2000 - McCain 58, Obama 39 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Hays Research - McCain 47, Obama 44 | 500 Adults - 4.9% | Nov. 2

Weighted Average: McCain 53.7% Obama 40.8% McCain+12.9%
Week Average: McCain 54.5% Obama 40.3% McCain+14.2%

Governor Palin probably improved McCain’s numbers in Alaska by about 10% to 15%, making this a sure red state in 2008.

Projection: John McCain

Arizona (10 Electoral Votes)
Arizona State - McCain 46, Obama 44 | 1,019 LV - 3% | Oct. 23 - 26
CNN - McCain 53, Obama 46 | 807 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 27
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
ARG - McCain 50, Obama 46 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Research 2000 - McCain 48, Obama 47 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30

Weighted Average: McCain 48.6% Obama 44% McCain+4.6%
Week Average: McCain 49% Obama 45.4% McCain+3.6%

Arizona could be the shocker of the night.  McCain is under 50% in both averages and in 3 of the 5 polls released in the past week.  If Hispanics vote in disproportionately large numbers in the southwest, there is a very real possibility that McCain could lose his home state.

Projection: Probably John McCain

Arkansas (6 Electoral Votes)
Rasmussen - McCain 54, Obama 44 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27
ARG - McCain 51, Obama 44 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31

Weighted Average: McCain 52.1% Obama 42% McCain+10.1%
Week Average: McCain 52.5% Obama 44% McCain+8.5%

Arkansas may be a little bit closer than this, just because it’s demographics are similar to Missouri, and the only major statewide race has Democrat Mark Pryor unopposed in his Senate race.  However, chances are Arkansas goes to McCain.

Projection: John McCain

California (55 Electoral Votes)
Field - Obama 55, McCain 33 | 966 LV - 3.3% | Oct. 18 - 28
Survey USA - Obama 60, McCain 36 | 637 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 29 - 31

Weighted Average: Obama: 57.5% McCain: 35.2% Obama+22.3%
Week Average: Obama: 57.5% McCain: 34.5% Obama+23%

California usually at least tries to pretend that it’s a somewhat reasonable state in Presidential elections.  Not this year, however.

Projection: Barack Obama

Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)
Associated Press - Obama 50, McCain 41 | 626 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
Insider Advantage - Obama 53, McCain 45 | 636 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 26
National Journal - Obama 48, McCain 44 | 409 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
CNN/Time - Obama 53, McCain 45 | 774 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
Marist - Obama 51, McCain 45 | 682 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
Mason-Dixon - Obama 49, McCain 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29
ARG - Obama 52, McCain 45 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
PPP - Obama 54, McCain 44 | 2,023 LV - 2.2% | Oct. 28 - 30
Rasmussen - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 50.8% McCain: 44.5% Obama+6.3%
Week Average: Obama: 51.2% McCain: 44.4% Obama+6.8%

A lead naring 7% in the average for the week, all 9 polls show Obama head, and a huge number of voters having already voted, I see no way McCain wins Colorado.

Projection: Barack Obama

Connecticut (7 Electoral Votes)

Weighted Average: Obama: 55.3% McCain: 34.8% Obama+20.5%
Week Average: N/A N/A N/A

For a while, we thought Connecticut might be a toss-up.  Then the state came to it’s senses.

Projection: Barack Obama

Delaware (3 Electoral Votes)
Survey USA - Obama 63, McCain 33 | 657 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28

Weighted Average: Obama: 60% McCain: 35.5% Obama+24.5%
Week Average: Obama: 63% McCain: 33% Obama+30%

Delaware kept some semblance of closeness over the summer.  Then Joe Biden became Obama’s runnin mate.

Projection: Barack Obama

District of Columbia (3 Electoral Votes)

Weighted Average: Obama: 82% McCain: 13% Obama+69%
Week Average: N/A N/A N/A

This average is from one poll.  I expect the margin in DC to be even larger.

Projection: Barack Obama

Florida (27 Electoral Votes)
Associated Press - Obama 45, McCain 43 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
National Journal - Obama 45, McCain 44 | 408 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
LA Times - Obama 50, McCain 43 | 639 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27
CNN/Time - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 747 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47, McCain 45 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30
ARG - Obama 50, McCain 46 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 31
PPP - Obama 50, McCain 48 | 1,717 LV - 2.4% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Quinnipiac - Obama 47, McCain 45 | 1,773 LV - 2.3% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2
Zogby - Obama 48, McCain 46 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
Strategic Vision - Obama 49, McCain 47 | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Datamar - McCain 48, Obama 47 | 657 LV - 3.8% | Nov. 1 - 2
Rasmussen - McCain 50, Obama 49 | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2
Survey USA - Obama 50, McCain 47 | 691 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 48.2% McCain: 46.1% Obama+2.1%
Week Average: Obama: 48.3% McCain: 46.1% Obama+2.2%

McCain pulled ahead in a couple of polls near the end, but they’re still in the minority as 5 of 7 polls which finished up on November 2nd still show an Obama victory.  Given that, and the average of over 2%, this should go to Obama.

Projection: Probably Barack Obama

Georgia (15 Electoral Votes)
CNN/Time - McCain 52, Obama 47 | 690 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
Research 2000 - McCain 47, Obama 44  | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Rasmussen - McCain 52, Obama 47 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30
Strategic Vision - McCain 50, Obama 46 | 600 LV - 3% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
Survey USA - McCain 52, Obama 45 | 683 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - McCain 50, Obama 48 | 1,253 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Insider Advantage - McCain 48, Obama 47 | 512 LV - 4% | Nov. 2

Weighted Average: McCain 49.9% Obama 45.7% McCain+4.2%
Week Average: McCain 49.9% Obama 46.3% McCain+3.6%

The McCain campaign better be on red alert in Georgia as they need a strong turnout of their base to make up for their large deficit from early voting.  If McCain doesn’t get it, they’ll lose Georgia.  McCain effectively at 50% in both averages causes me to put this into McCain’s column, though.

Projection: Probably John McCain

Hawaii (4 Electoral Votes)

Weighted Average: Obama: 66.4% McCain: 28.6% Obama+37.8%
Week Average: N/A N/A N/A

No last second visits out to Hawaii this year, as Obama’s birth state is poised to give him his largest margin of victory outside of DC.

Projection: Barack Obama

Idaho (4 Electoral Votes)
Harstad - McCain 55, Obama 32 | 502 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 19 - 22

Weighted Average: McCain 56.5% Obama 31.7% McCain+24.8%
Week Average McCain 55% Obama 32% McCain+23%

Idaho could be bordering a few more blue states after 2008, but it’s still strong, strong red.

Projection: John McCain

Illinois (21 Electoral Votes)
Rasmussen - Obama 60, McCain 38 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 1

Weighted Average: Obama: 58.7% McCain: 35.8% Obama+22.9%
Week Average: Obama: 60% McCain: 38% Obama+22%

Illinois would be blue anyway, but having Obama coming from Illinois just makes it all that more blue.

Projection: Barack Obama

Indiana (11 Electoral Votes)
Howey-Gauge - McCain 47, Obama 45 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 24
Research 2000 - Obama 48, McCain 47 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
Indianapolis Star - Obama 46, McCain 45 | 606 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28
Survey USA - McCain 47, Obama 47 | 900 LV - 3.3% | Oct. 27 - 29
Rasmussen - McCain 49, Obama 46 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 - 29
ARG - McCain 48, Obama 48  | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31
Zogby - McCain 49, Obama 44 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - Obama 49, McCain 48 | 2,634 LV - 1.9% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

Weighted Average: McCain 47.3% Obama 46.7% McCain+0.6%
Week Average: McCain 47.5% Obama 46.5% McCain+1%

McCain has all the momentum here.  The only thing that might keep McCain from winning Indiana is Obama’s superior ground game, but he’s working against the tide in this state.

Projection: Probably John McCain

Iowa (7 Electoral Votes)
Research 2000 - Obama 53, McCain 39 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29
Survey USA - Obama 55, McCain 40 | 658 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29
Selzer - Obama 54, McCain 37 | 814 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 28 - 31

Weighted Average: Obama: 53% McCain: 40% Obama+13%
Week Average: Obama: 54% McCain: 38.7% Obama+15.3%

The McCain campaign keeps saying that their polls show Iowa close.  I’m just trying to figure out what parallel universe Iowa they’ve been polling.

Projection: Barack Obama

Kansas (6 Electoral Votes)
Survey USA - McCain 58, Obama 37 | 626 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 27 - 28

Weighted Average: McCain 55.3% Obama 38.8% McCain+16.5%
Week Average McCain 58% Obama 37% McCain+21%

Even though Obama has Kansas roots, it’s not enough to make this state close.

Projection: John McCain

Kentucky (8 Electoral Votes)
Mason-Dixon - McCain 51, Obama 42 | 817 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 27 - 29
Research 2000 - McCain 56, Obama 39 (39) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29
Rasmussen - McCain 55, Obama 43 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 29
Survey USA - McCain 56, Obama 40 | 616 LV - 4% | Oct. 29

Weighted Average: McCain 54.2% Obama 40.8% McCain+13.4%
Week Average: McCain 54.5% Obama 41% McCain+13.5%

Can Obama push this state into the single digits?  If he can, he may lead Lunsford to defeat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Projection: John McCain

Louisiana (9 Electoral Votes)
SE Louisiana Univ. - McCain 51, Obama 38 | 503 RV - 4.5% | Oct. 20 - 23
Loyola - McCain 43, Obama 40 | 500 RV - 4.5% | Oct. 26 - 28

Weighted Average: McCain 50.1% Obama 39.7% McCain+10.4%
Week Average: McCain 47% Obama 39% McCain+8%

The big question in Louisiana is will the transplated Katrina refugees vote, and will they vote in Louisiana?  If they do so, and do so in larger margins, then Obama’s support may be greatly underrepresented in the polls, perhaps so much so that it could put Louisana in play.  However, without assuming anything, it looks like Louisiana is going for McCain.

Projection: John McCain

Maine (4 Electoral Votes)
Rasmussen - Obama 56, McCain 43 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 1
Survey USA - Obama 58, McCain 38 | 674 LV - 3.8% | Nov. 1

Weighted Average: Obama: 55.2% McCain: 39.6% Obama+15.6%
Week Average: Obama: 57% McCain: 40.5% Obama+16.5%

McCain briefly thought that he might be able to steal the 2nd Congressional District Electoral Vote away from Obama, but there appears to be little chance of that given such a large margin in the state.

Projection: Barack Obama

Maryland (10 Electoral Votes)

Weighted Average: Obama: 56.2% McCain: 38.2% Obama+18%
Week Average: N/A N/A N/A

Maryland seems to get more blue every cycle.

Projection: Barack Obama

Massachusetts (12 Electoral Votes)
Survey USA - Obama 56, McCain 39 | 658 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 27 - 28

Weighted Average: Obama: 56.1% McCain: 36.5% Obama+19.6%
Week Average: Obama: 56% McCain: 39% Obama+17%

It’s Massachuseets for crying out loud.

Projection: Barack Obama

Michigan (17 Electoral Votes)
EPIC/MRA - Obama 50, McCain 38 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28
Rasmussen - Obama 53, McCain 43 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28
Strategic Vision - Obama 54, McCain 41 | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 27 - 29
Mitchell Research - Obama 54, Obama 40 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 30
PPP - Obama 55, McCain 42 | 1,532 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 28 - 30
Selzer & Co. - Obama 53, McCain 37 | 616 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31

Weighted Average: Obama: 52.6% McCain: 40% Obama+12.6%
Week Average: Obama: 53.2% McCain: 40.2% Obama+13%

I started hearing some very soft rumblings about Michigan over the past couple of days.  However, I have no idea where they’re coming from or why.

Projection: Barack Obama

Minnesota (10 Electoral Votes)
University of Minnesota - Obama 56, McCain 37 | 451 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 24 - 28
Mason-Dixon - Obama 48, McCain 40 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
Rasmussen - Obama 55, McCain 43 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28
Research 2000 - Obama 53, McCain 38 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29
PPP - Obama 57, McCain 41 | 1,050 - 3% | Oct. 28 - 30
Star Tribune - Obama 53, McCain 42 | 993 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 29 - 31
Survey USA - Obama 49, McCain 46 | 669 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 1

Weighted Average: Obama: 52.2% McCain: 41% Obama+11.2%
Week Average: Obama: 53% McCain: 41% Obama+12%

Minnesota is beginning to look of the Minnesota of old, where the Democrat wins easily instead of having to go far into the night to see who will win.

Projection: Barack Obama

Mississippi (6 Electoral Votes)
Rasmussen - McCain 53, Obama 45 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27
Research 2000 - McCain 53, Obama 40 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29

Weighted Average: McCain 51.1% Obama 40% McCain+11.1%
Week Average: McCain 53% Obama 42.5% McCain+10.5%

Obama has a great shot of getting Mississippi in single digits, and if it truly is a rout on election night, Mississippi could be too close to call.  However, the polls say that this is going to McCain.

Projection: John McCain

Missouri (11 Electoral Votes)
CNN/Time - McCain 50, Obama 48 | 825 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
Mason-Dixon - McCain 47, Obama 46 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29
Insider Advantage - McCain 50, Obama 47 | 814 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 29
ARG - Obama 48, McCain 48 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Survey USA - Obama 48, McCain 48 | 674 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
Zogby - Obama 47, McCain 46 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - Obama 49, McCain 49 | 1,343 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Rasmussen - Obama 49, McCain 49 | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama 47.8% McCain 47.6% Obama+0.2%
Week Average: McCain 48.4% Obama 47.8% McCain+0.6%

Missouri is the one and only state where the two averages disagree on who will win.  It looks like Obama has stopped and perhaps slightly reversed the momentum McCain had in the middle of the week, with 4 of the 5 final polls all being tied.  Given a tie, and given that no one in particular has the momentum now, I defer to the ground game, which favors Obama.

Projection: Probably Barack Obama

Montana (3 Electoral Votes)
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
Rasmussen - McCain 50, Obama 46 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 29
ARG - McCain 49, Obama 46 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Research 2000 - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 - 30
PPP - Obama 48, McCain 47 | 2,734 LV - 1.9% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

Weighted Average: McCain 48.1% Obama 45.4% McCain+2.7%
Week Average: McCain 48.4% Obama 46.4% McCain+2%

Third Party voting will be key in this state.  Most polls don’t ask about third party candidates like Barr and, in Montana’s case, Ron Paul, and many people who would vote for Barr or Paul, but aren’t given the choice, may say that they’d go for McCain.  For this reason, and the fact that McCain is under 50%, I’m calling this an upset for Barack Obama.

Projection: Barack Obama Upset

Nebraska (5 Electoral Votes)

Weighted Average: McCain 56.8% Obama 36.3% McCain+20.5%
Week Average N/A N/A N/A

Nebraska is very red, and probably too red for Obama to pick off any of the Congressional District Electoral Votes.

Projection: John McCain

Nevada (5 Electoral Votes)
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 628 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
Suffolk - Obama 50, McCain 40 | 450 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 23 - 27
Rasmussen - Obama 50, McCain 46 | 700 LV - 4% | Oct. 27
CNN - Obama 52, McCain 45 | 684 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 28
Research 2000 - Obama 50, McCain 45 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 28
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47, McCain 43 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29
Zogby - Obama 51, McCain 43 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 1,243 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 49.7% McCain: 44.4% Obama+5.3%
Week Average: Obama: 50.4% McCain: 43.6% Obama+6.8%

Every poll shows Obama winning, every poll but one has Obama over 50%, and Obama has all the momentum.  It’s going to take an amazing McCain turnout in Nevada to keep this state red.

Projection: Probably Barack Obama

New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes)
Mason-Dixon - Obama 50, McCain 39 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
Associated Press - Obama 55, McCain 37 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Strategic Vision - Obama 50, McCain 41 | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 27 - 29
Suffolk - Obama 53, McCain 40 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29
ARG - Obama 56, McCain 41 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Research 2000 - Obama 51, McCain 44 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Survey USA - Obama 53, McCain 42 | 682 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 29 - 30
Rasmussen - Obama 51, McCain 44 | 700 LV - 4% | Oct. 30
UNH - Obama 53, McCain 41 | 831 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 52.2% McCain: 41.4% Obama+10.8%
Week Average: Obama: 52.4% McCain: 41% Obama+11.4%

McCain keeps hoping New Hampshire will pull through for him.  However, the voting at Dixville Notch, where the small town who votes at midnight voted for a Democrat for the first time in 40 years is probably a sign to come for McCain in the state.

Projection: Barack Obama

New Jersey (15 Electoral Votes)
Strategic Vision - Obama 53, McCain 38 | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 24 - 26
Research 2000 - Obama 54, McCain 38 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28
Fairleigh Dickinson - Obama 53, McCain 35 | 852 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 29
Survey USA - Obama 52, McCain 42 | 632 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30
Monmouth - Obama 55, McCain 34 | 801 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 29 - 31
Rasmussen - Obama 57, McCain 42 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 54% McCain: 38.5% Obama+15.5%
Week Average: Obama: 54% McCain: 38.2% Obama+15.8%

I’m not sure why so many people felt compelled to poll New Jersey in the last week.  It’s pretty clearly blue this year.

Projection: Barack Obama

New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes)
Rasmussen - Obama 54, McCain 44 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28
Albuquerque Journal - Obama 51, McCain 43 | 600 LV - 4% | 10/28-10/30
PPP - Obama 58, McCain 41 | 1,537 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 28 - 30
Survey USA - Obama 52, McCain 45 | 664 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 29 - 31

Weighted Average: Obama: 53.1% McCain: 43.3% Obama+9.8%
Week Average: Obama: 53.8% McCain: 43.3% Obama+10.5%

No state seems to have gotten away from McCain recently as much as New Mexico has (though Nevada would give it a run for it’s money).

Projection: Barack Obama

New York (31 Electoral Votes)
Survey USA - Obama 62, McCain 33 | 633 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28

Weighted Average: Obama: 61.3% McCain: 32.6% Obama+28.7%
Week Average: Obama: 62% McCain: 33% Obama+29%

Now, really.  Obama is just running up the score in New York now.

Projection: Barack Obama

North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes)
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 46 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
National Journal - Obama 47, McCain 43 | 402 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
CNN - Obama 52, McCain 46 | 667 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 28
Civitas - Obama 47, McCain 46 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29
Mason-Dixon - McCain 49, Obama 46 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29
Insider Advantage - Obama 48, McCain 48 | 641 LV - 3.7% | Oct. 29
Elon - Obama 45, McCain 38 | 797 Adults - 3.5% | Oct. 27 - 30
Research 2000 - Obama 47, McCain 45 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Survey USA - McCain 49, Obama 48 | 682 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
Zogby - McCain 49, Obama 48 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - Obama 50, McCain 49 | 2,100 LV - 2.1% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Rasmussen - McCain 50, Obama 49 | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2
ARG - Obama 49, McCain 48 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 3

Weighted Average: Obama: 48.1% McCain: 46.9% Obama+1.2%
Week Average: Obama: 48% McCain: 46.6% Obama+1.4%

This state looks good for Obama on the average, but look at the last 5 polls, all finishing up since Sunday : McCain leads in 3 and Obama leads in 2.  That suggests that McCain picked up some momentum over the last weekend of the race, and as a result, I have a tendency to feel like giving it to him.

Projection: John McCain Upset

North Dakota (3 Electoral Votes)
Research 2000 - McCain 47, Obama 46 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 - 29

Weighted Average: McCain 45.7% Obama 45% McCain+0.7%
Week Average: McCain 47% Obama 46% McCain+1%

McCain at only 47% in a state which usually bleeds red?  That can’t be good.  This state also has no voter registration - if you’re an adult and have an ID, you can vote, period.  This makes North Dakota both a hard state to poll and could make it unpredictable.  This is just my gut, but I don’t think we’re going to see the third party swing or, shall i may mavericky movement in North Dakota that I think we’ll see in Montana, so I’m giving this to McCain.

Projection: Probably John McCain

Ohio (20 Electoral Votes)
Ohio University - Obama 57, McCain 41 | 611 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 12 - 23
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 41 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Marist - Obama 48, McCain 45 | 661 LV - 4% | Oct. 24 - 26
National Journal - Obama 48, McCain 41 | 404 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
LA Times - Obama 49, McCain 40 | 644 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27
CNN - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 779 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
Mason-Dixon - McCain 47, Obama 45 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29
Quinnipiac - Obama 50, McCain 43 | 1,574 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2
Univ. of Cincinnati - Obama 52, McCain 46 | 1,308 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 29 - Nov. 2
Zogby - Obama 50, McCain 44 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - Obama 50, McCain 48 | 1,208 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Strategic Vision - McCain 48, Obama 46 | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Survey USA - Obama 48, McCain 46 | 660 LV - 3.9% | Nov. 1 - 2
Rasmussen - Obama 49, McCain 49 | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 49.1% McCain: 44.9% Obama+4.2%
Week Average: Obama: 49.5% McCain: 44.7% Obama+4.8%

An average lead nearing 5%, and only two polls - both with GOP leanings this election - going for McCain, Obama is looking pretty good in Ohio.

Projection: Probably Barack Obama

Oklahoma (7 Electoral Votes)
Survey USA - McCain 63, McCain 34 | 594 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29

Weighted Average: McCain 62.4% Obama 33.7% McCain+28.7%
Week Average McCain 63% Obama 34% McCain+29%

Oklahoma is McCain’s strongest state, and is probably the best chance McCain has of doubling Obama somewhere.

Projection: John McCain

Oregon (7 Electoral Votes)
Portland Tribune - Obama 53, McCain 34 | 500 RV - 4.4% | Oct. 23 - 25
Research 2000 - Obama 55, McCain 39 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29
PPP - Obama 57, McCain 42 | 1,424 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 28 - 30
Survey USA - Obama 57, McCain 38 | 700 LV - 3.7% | Oct. 29 - 30
Rasmussen - Obama 54, McCain 42 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30

Weighted Average: Obama: 54.5% McCain: 38.9% Obama+15.6%
Week Average: Obama: 54.6% McCain: 39% Obama+15.6%

Oregon tightened up some over the late summer, but Obama quickly regained his huge lead, and now it’s not even close.

Projection: Barack Obama

Pennsylvania (21 Electoral Votes)

Franklin & Marshall - Obama 53, McCain 40 | 550(?) LV - 4.2% | Oct. 21 - 26
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Insider Advantage - Obama 51, McCain 42 | 588 LV - 4% | Oct. 26
Marist - Obama 55, McCain 41 | 713 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27
CNN - Obama 55, McCain 43 | 768 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47, McCain 43 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
Muhlenberg - Obama 54, McCain 41 | 602 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 29
ARG - Obama 51, McCain 45 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 31
Rasmussen - Obama 52, McCain 46 | 700 LV - 4% | Nov. 1
Quinnipiac - Obama 52, McCain 42 | 1,493 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2
Zogby - Obama 54, McCain 40 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - Obama 53, McCain 45 | 1,529 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Strategic Vision - Obama 51, McCain 44 | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Survey USA - Obama 52, McCain 43 | 657 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 3

Weighted Average: Obama: 51.8% McCain: 42.7% Obama+9.1%
Week Average: Obama: 52.3% McCain: 42.5% Obama+9.8%

14 polls, all but the GOP-leaning Mason-Dixon showing Obama over 50%, and the entire week taken as a whole, it doesn’t even necessarily look like McCain ended up gaining much on obama at all.  Living in Pennsylvania for the last week might have been the biggest fool errand in election history, but then again McCain didn’t have many alternatives either.

Projection: Barack Obama

Rhode Island (4 Electoral Votes)

Weighted Average: Obama: 49.2% McCain: 30.3% Obama+18.9%
Week Average: N/A N/A N/A

Don’t worry about the average numbers for each candidate here.  We’ve had a couple of weird polls here, but the state is still clearly in favor of Obama.

Projection: Barack Obama

South Carolina (8 Electoral Votes)
NBC - McCain 53, Obama 42 | 400 LV - 5% | Oct. 25 - 28
Survey USA - McCain 52, Obama 44 | 654 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29

Weighted Average: McCain 53.4% Obama 41.5% McCain+11.9%
Week Average: McCain 52.5% Obama 43% McCain+9.5%

How close will South Carolina get with the African American turnout?  There are some people who think that Obama may have a shot here, but I think the hill is just too big to climb.  However, this state may get rather lonely if both North Carolina and Georgia go to Obama.

Projection: John McCain

South Dakota (3 Electoral Votes)
Rasmussen - McCain 53, Obama 44 | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30

Weighted Average: McCain 51.3% Obama 42.3% McCain+9%
Week Average: McCain 53% Obama 44% McCain+9%

Out of the Near West Three - Motana, and the two Dakotas - South Dakota is likely the last to go if any of them go.

Projection: John McCain

Tennessee (11 Electoral Votes)

Weighted Average: McCain 54.1% Obama 39.1% McCain+15%
Week Average N/A N/A N/A

Tennessee has continually floated away from battleground status into a true red state, and that’s where it remains in 2008.

Projection: John McCain

Texas (34 Electoral Votes)
University of Texas - McCain 51, Obama 40 | 550 RV - 4.2% | Oct. 15 - 22

Weighted Average: McCain 52.9% Obama 41.1% McCain+11.8%
Week Average: McCain 51% Obama 40% McCain+11%

Can the hispanic votes push Texas into single digits?  If so, how far into it?  I highly doubt this state will ever be seriously in play tonight, though.

Projection: John McCain

Utah (5 Electoral Votes)
Mason-Dixon - McCain 55, Obama 32 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25
Dan Jones & Associates - McCain 57, Obama 32 | 1,205 RV - 2.9% | Oct. 24 - 30

Weighted Average: McCain 56.6% Obama 31.7% McCain+24.9%
Week Average McCain 56% Obama 32% McCain+24%

I think Utah would go republican even if Brigham Young himself rose from the dead and ran as a Democrat.

Projection: John McCain

Virginia (13 Electoral Votes)
Roanoke College - Obama 48, McCain 39 | 614 LV - 4% | Oct. 19 - 26
Associated Press - Obama 49, McCain 42 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
National Journal - Obama 48, McCain 44 | 404 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
Marist - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 671 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27
CNN/Time - Obama 53, McCain 44 | 721 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28
National Journal - Obama 48, McCain 44 | 404 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47, McCain 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30
Survey USA - Obama 50, McCain 46 | 672 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 1
Zogby - Obama 51, McCain 45 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
PPP - Obama 52, McCain 46 | 1,557 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Rasmussen - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2
ARG - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 3

Weighted Average: Obama: 50.3% McCain: 44.7% Obama+5.6%
Week Average: Obama: 49.9% McCain: 44.6% Obama+5.3%

Obama wins in all 12 polls, though he’s not consistently over 50%.  McCain may have the slight momentum here, but not enough to make up a 5% deficit.

Projection: Probably Barack Obama

Vermont (3 Electoral Votes)
Research 2000 - Obama 57, McCain 36 | 400 LV - 5% | Oct. 24 - 26

Weighted Average: Obama: 55.7% McCain: 34.5% Obama+21.2%
Week Average: Obama: 57% McCain: 36% Obama+21%

Nothing less from a state who elected a formal socialist to the US Senate.

Projection: Barack Obama

Washington (11 Electoral Votes)
Survey USA - Obama 56, McCain 40 | 663 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2
Strategic Vision - Obama 55, McCain 40 | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 54.8% McCain: 39.6% Obama+15.2%
Week Average: Obama: 55.5% McCain: 40% Obama+15.5%

Washington was never really contested this year by McCain.  Sometimes this state can be close, but it never was in 2008.

Projection: Barack Obama

West Virginia (5 Electoral Votes)
PPP - McCain 55, Obama 42 | 2,128 LV - 2.1% | Oct. 29 - 30
ARG - McCain 53, Obama 42 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 3

Weighted Average: McCain 50.8% Obama 42.5% McCain+8.3%
Week Average: McCain 54% Obama 42% McCain+12%

Dreaming about winning West Virginia may have been a temporary Obama dream as West Virginia seems to be pulling away for McCain, much like how some places in Pennsylvania are helping to draw down the margin in that state.

Projection: John McCain

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)
University of Wisconsin - Obama 54, McCain 38 | 538 Adults - 4.2% | Oct. 21 - 28
Research 2000 - Obama 53, McCain 42 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
Survey USA - Obama 55, McCain 39 | 667 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29
Strategic Vision - Obama 53, McCain 40 | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

Weighted Average: Obama: 52.3% McCain: 40.7% Obama+11.6%
Week Average: Obama: 53.3% McCain: 39.8% Obama+13.5%

Minnesota’s twin goes the same way Minnesota does, undergoing a transformation from nail-biter to clear blue state.

Projection: Barack Obama

Wyoming (3 Electoral Votes)
Research 2000 - McCain 61, Obama 36| 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 - 29

Weighted Average: McCain 59.4% Obama 35.4% McCain+24%
Week Average McCain 61% Obama 36% McCain+25%

Dick Cheney’s state isn’t Dick Cheney’s state for no reason.

Projection: John McCain

Final Projection

Given the above projections, I come up with this:

Barack Obama/Joe Biden - 352

John McCain/Sarah Palin - 186

I think Obama’s floor, if he has a bad night, is probably a 286-252 victory over McCain.  However, if Obama’s ground game and enthusiasm just runs McCain off the map, we could be looking at a result as large as 416 to 122.

Day 1 Review - No appreciable McCain gains since last Monday

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on November 03, 2008
General / No Comments

We may get a smattering of polls late late tonight or early tomorrow, but for the most, part this is it.  Tonight, we had 45 more polls (not as many as I thought or feared). That brings the total of polls in the database up to 1,471 with interviews now with over 1 million people.

Tomorrow morning I’ll put together a compilation of polls from the past week and my final predictions.

New Polls Added Today

Alaska
Dittman - McCain 56, Obama 37 | 489 LV - 4.8% | Oct. 24 - 29
Hays Research - McCain 47 (40), Obama 44 (45) | 500 Adults - 4.9% | Nov. 2 (8/6-8/7)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 53.7% 56.4% 55%
Obama: 40.8% 39.8% 39.5%
Margin: 12.9% 16.6% 15.5%
Status: Strong McCain

I don’t for one minute believe the Hays Research poll.  First off, the sample size is as low as you can go as far as my minimum requirements.  Second, it’s a poll of adults, not registered voters, to say nothing of likely voters.  Third, their last poll - and granted it was before Palin was selected as Vice President - had Obama up 5% in the state, so it’s still a +8 swing in favor of McCain.

Luckily, we had the 2nd poll which probably overestimated McCain’s margin in the state, so instead of dragging down the average by about 5% from yestrday as the Hays poll did by itself, the second poll was able to reclaim at least 1% of that.  This is still a race which is closer to 15% than 13%, though.

Colorado
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (50), McCain 47 (46) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.8% 50.8% – 50.2%
McCain: 44.5% 44.3% 44.5% –
Margin: 6.3% 6.5% 5.7%
Status: Weak Obama

I guess the main thing to take away from Rasmussen is that they’ve shown no change in the state from a week ago, aside from each candidate splitting newly decided undecideds.  This is still, on average, about a 6% race and the Hispanic vote will basically have to stay home for Obama to lose this state.

Florida

Datamar - McCain 48 (47), Obama 47 (47) | 657 LV - 3.8% | Nov. 1 - 2 (10/29-10/30)
PPP - Obama 50 (48), McCain 48 (47) | 1,717 LV - 2.4% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/16-10/19)
Rasmussen - McCain 50 (47), Obama 49 (51) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Strategic Vision - Obama 49 (46), McCain 47 (48) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/20-10/22)
Quinnipiac - Obama 47 (47), McCain 45 (45) | 1,773 LV - 2.3% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 (10/22-10/26)
Zogby - Obama 48 (47), McCain 46 (47) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (Oct. 23 - 26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48.1% 48% 48.1% –
McCain: 46% 45.5% 45.9%
Margin: 2.1% 2.5% 2.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

Six polls and four of them showing it a 2% race for Obama and the other two showing it as a 1% race for McCain.  Before today, McCain hadn’t really led in a poll in the state for about 2 weeks, so that would suggest a 1% Obama loss is almost a worst case scenario, and I haven’t even gotten into margin of error or the ground game yet.

The Strategic Vision poll is also the poll that put us over 1 million respondents.

Georgia
Insider Advantage - McCain 48 (48), Obama 47 (47) | 512 LV - 4% | Nov. 2 (10/27)
PPP - McCain 50, Obama 48 | 1,253 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Strategic Vision - McCain 50 (51), Obama 46 (45) | 600 LV - 3% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/20-10/22)
Survey USA - McCain 52 (51), Obama 45 (43) | 683 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/11-10/12)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 50.1% 49.9% 49.9%
Obama: 45.6% 45.2% 44.5%
Margin: 4.5% 4.7% 5.4%
Status: Too Close To Call

A tad more tightening, but is it enough for an Obama ground game to overcome?  It’s going to be very difficult, even with all the early votes banked.

Indiana
PPP - Obama 49 (48), McCain 48 (46) | 2,634 LV - 1.9% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/18-10/19)
Zogby - McCain 49 (50), Obama 44 (44) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 47.3% 47% 46.3%
Obama: 46.7% 46.8% 47%
Margin: 0.6% 0.2% -0.7%
Status: Too Close To Call

McCain now leads in Indiana by as much as Obama did last Monday.  That’s still not a very big lead - only 0.6% - but I’m sure Obama wishes he was at least leading rather than behind.  It seems like the momentum is in McCain’s favor, but he apparently has zero ground game in the state, while Obama has a significant one, and a margin this small could be switched by a good ground game.  Nevertheless, Obama doesn’t have the momentum in this state.

Maine
Survey USA - Obama 58 (54), McCain 38 (39) | 674 LV - 3.8% | Nov. 1 (10/19-10/20)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 55.2% 54.1% 53.1%
McCain: 39.6% 40.1% 38.4%
Margin: 15.6% 14% 14.7%
Status: Strong Obama

Obama has Maine in the bag.

Michigan
Mitchell Research - Obama 54, Obama 40 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 30

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.6% 52.4% 51.8%
McCain: 40% 40% – 39.4%
Margin: 12.6% 12.4% 12.4%
Status: Strong Obama

Remember when Michigan used to be close? Yeah, me neither.

Missouri
PPP - Obama 49 (48), McCain 49 (46) | 1,343 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/11-10/12)
Rasmussen - Obama 49 (48), McCain 49 (47) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Survey USA - Obama 48 (48), McCain 48 (48) | 674 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/25-10/26)
Zogby - Obama 47 (48), McCain 46 (46) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov .2 (Oct. 23 - 26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 47.8% 47.5% 47.7%
McCain: 47.6% 47.4% 46.5%
Margin: 0.2% 0.1% 1.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

Missouri is kind of like Indiana, except Obama started with a little bigger lead in the state.  Indiana flipped by 1.3% while Missouri flipped by 1%, and Obama now holds only a 0.2% lead.  Again, like Indiana, a superior ground game could put the state away, but Obama is working against the momentum in this state.

Montana
PPP - Obama 48, McCain 47 | 2,734 LV - 1.9% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 48.1% 48.2% 46.8%
Obama: 45.4% 44.8% 44.1%
Margin: 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% –
Status: Too Close To Call

This Montana poll is amazing in quite a few ways.  First, and most obviously, it shows Obama ahead, and a 5% third party vote would be hardly unexpected in the state.  Second…look at that sample.  I’m not sure I’ve seen a poll with 2,700 people in it.  That’s 0.3% of the entire population of the state.  That’d be like doing a poll of the US with about 900,000 people in it.  Now, of course, statistically speaking, a poll with 2,700 Montanans is just as reliable as a poll of 2,700 Americans overall, but I just wanted to show how big the sample was im comparison to the population of the state.

Don’t be surprised if we have to wait a while for Montana to come in tomorrow night.

Nevada
PPP - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 1,243 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Zogby - Obama 51 (48), McCain 43 (44) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49.7% 49.4% 48.5%
McCain: 44.4% 44.2% 45.6%
Margin: 5.3% 5.2% 2.9%
Status: Weak Obama

Nevada shot up from just below a 3% lead to just above a 5% lead and has pretty much stayed there since.  This state is actually quite similar to Colorado now in it’s margin, which is not good news for McCain.

New Hampshire
UNH - Obama 53 (54), McCain 41 (36) | 831 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/27-10/29)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.2% 52.1% 51.3%
McCain: 41.4% 41.3% 42.7%
Margin: 10.8% 10.8% – 8.6%
Status: Strong Obama

This poll has tightened some, but it’s still a double digit lead for Obama in this once-toss-up state.

New Jersey
Rasmussen - Obama 57 (50), McCain 42 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 2 (10/7)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 54% 53.6% 54.3%
McCain: 38.5% 38% 38.9%
Margin: 15.5% 15.6% 15.4%
Status: Strong Obama

Because we’re all sitting on the edge of our seats waiting to see how New Jersey turns out.

North Carolina
PPP - Obama 50 (49), McCain 49 (48) | 2,100 LV - 2.1% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/25-10/26)
Rasmussen - McCain 50 (48), Obama 49 (50) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Survey USA - McCain 49 (47), Obama 48 (47) | 682 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/18-10/20)
Zogby - McCain 49 (46), Obama 48 (50) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48% 47.9% 48.2%
McCain: 46.8% 46.3% 46.9%
Margin: 1.2% 1.6% 1.3%
Status: Too Close To Call

Obama had pulled away some in North Carolina in mid-week but the margin has since slid back to where it was a week ago.  In that sense, McCain has some momentum, but the larger point remains that he barely gained any ground in the state since last Monday, though McCain does have some pretty good news in that 3 of the 4 polls released in the state today show him ahead, albeit all by only 1%.  In those 3 polls show the status of the race, then North Carolina could be tough for Obama, though it’ll be easier than either Indiana or Missouri.

Ohio
PPP - Obama 50 (51), McCain 48 (44) | 1,208 LV - 2.8% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/21-10/23)
Quinnipiac - Obama 50 (51), McCain 43 (42) | 1,574 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 (10/22-10/26)
Rasmussen - Obama 49 (49), McCain 49 (45) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Strategic Vision - McCain 48 (48), Obama 46 (45) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/20-10/22)
Survey USA - Obama 48 (49), McCain 46 (45) | 660 LV - 3.9% | Nov. 1 - 2 (10/26-10/27)
Univ. of Cincinnati - Obama 52 (49), McCain 46 (46) | 1,308 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 29 - Nov. 2 (10/18-10/22)
Zogby - Obama 50 (50), McCain 44 (45) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49.1% 49% 48.9%
McCain: 44.9% 44.2% 44.7%
Margin: 4.2% 4.8% 4.2% –
Status: Too Close To Call

Ohio is kind of like North Carolina, except that Obama had a 3% larger margin in Ohio.  Obama started the week with about a 4% lead, mid-week it expanded to about 5%, and now it’s back to 4%.  Out of 7 polls released today, only the GOP-leaning Strategic Vision gives McCain the lead, though his margin actually decreased from their last poll.

Ohio is to McCain pretty much like how Georgia is to Obama - is it in range? Yes.  Is it likely he pulls off a win here, no?  And unlike Obama in Georgia, McCain is going to have to come from behind in Ohio.

Pennsylvania
Strategic Vision - Obama 51 (49), McCain 44 (44) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/27-10/29)
Quinnipiac - Obama 52 (53), McCain 42 (41) | 1,493 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 27 - Nov. 2 (10/22-10/26)
Zogby - Obama 54, McCain 40 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.8% 51.7% 51.3%
McCain: 42.7% 42.8% 41.4%
Margin: 9.1% 8.9% 9.9%
Status: Weak Obama

Three new polls today, and all of them bigger than some of the most recent polls in the state, suggesting that Obama has countered some of McCain’s gains in the state late in the week.  If McCain wins in Pennsylvania it will be the Appalachian State over Michigan of Presidential Elections.  It would be one of the most monumental upsets ever.  Which is why it’s unlikely it will occur.  Of course, Appalachian State did beat Michigan too.

Virginia
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (51), McCain 47 (47) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Nov. 2 (10/26)
Zogby - Obama 51 (52), McCain 45 (45) | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/23-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.3% 50.2% 50.6%
McCain: 44.6% 44.4% 44.4%
Margin: 5.7% 5.8% 6.2%
Status: Weak Obama

Much like the start of the week, Obama holds about a 6% lead in Virginia, which will be very difficult for McCain to claw back against.  The only advantage McCain has here is that Virginia is traditionally a red state, so Obama has to fight against the default.  However, Obama clearly has the advantage in the state.

Washington
Strategic Vision - Obama 55 (54), McCain 40 (42) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/25-10/26)
Survey USA - Obama 56 (56), McCain 40 (39) | 663 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 2 (10/26-10/27)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 54.8% 54.5% 54.2%
McCain: 39.6% 39.3% 38.7%
Margin: 15.2% 15.2% – 15.5%
Status: Strong Obama

Obama is still hanging onto a 15% lead or so.  We just hope Obama’s strong showing here will be enough to re-elect Christine Gregoire over DIno Rossi in the governor’s race.

Wisconsin
Strategic Vision - Obama 53 (50), McCain 40 (41) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/24-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.3% 52.2% 51.6%
McCain: 40.7% 40.8% 41.2%
Margin: 11.6% 11.4% 10.4%
Status: Strong Obama

Wisconsin is still rolling for Obama.  Unlike 2000 and 2004, it doesn’t look like this state will give us much suspense on election night.

Overall Thoughts

So, how do the Weak and Too Close To Call states look like today as compared to after last Monday?  Well, let’s take a look:

Key

  • Obama leads and gained
  • Obama leads with no change +/- 0.3%
  • Obama leads and lost ground
  • McCain leads and lost ground
  • McCain leads with no change +/- 0.3%
  • McCain leads and gained

States

  • Colorado: from Obama+5.7% to Obama+6.3%
  • Florida: from Obama+2.2% to Obama+2.1%
  • Georgia: from McCain+5.4% to McCain+4.5%
  • Indiana: from Obama+0.7% to McCain+0.6%
  • Missouri: from Obama+1.2% to Obama+0.2%
  • Montana: from McCain+2.7% to McCain+2.7%
  • Nevada: from Obama+2.9% to Obama+5.3%
  • New Hampshire: from Obama+8.6% to Obama+10.8%
  • North Carolina: from Obama+1.3% to Obama+1.2%
  • Ohio: from Obama+4.2% to Obama+4.2%
  • Pennsylvania: from Obama+9.9% to Obama+9.1%
  • Virginia: from Obama+6.2% to Obama+5.7%

So you look at this and things look generally good for Obama.  He gained or essnetially stayed the same in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio as well as McCain’s state of Georgia.  Meanwhile, McCain has only gained or stayed the same in Montana as well as Obama’s state of Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

However, the only state McCain has actually been able to flip is Indiana (though he’s pretty close in Missouri as well).  The two other state he’s closed still have pretty big Obama lead in the average - closing 0.8% in a state which he was down by 9.9% and gaining 0.5% in a state he was down by 6.2%.  That’s gaining back only 8% to 9% of what he actually needs (and actually, that ratio of how much McCain gained vs. how much he was down is pretty close in both states).

So the only appreciable gains for McCain are Indiana and Missouri - states which are pretty much on the fringe of Obama’s targets anyway.  They’re the difference between a 353 EV night and a 375 EV night for Obama, basically.  That’s obviously not where McCain needs to be gaining.  Even if McCain grabbed back North Carolina, Obama still has 338 Electoral Votes, though that would allow McCain to cross the 200 barrier.

Overall, there is no appreciable change in the races in the states in any place that would actually threaten Obama’s hold on an Electoral College lead.

Pollster.com Graphs

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on November 03, 2008
General / No Comments

Here are some graphs from pollster.com showing the tightening in some states.  These graphs are on the most sensitive setting:

Missouri

Ohio

Pennsylvania

Virginia

However, the national picture isn’t looking as bad, and might be able to bring at least Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia across:

Day 2 Roundup: More Critical States Narrow

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on November 03, 2008
General / No Comments

Another light weekend day today, with only 18 polls.  But tightening is undeniably happening across the board now.

New Polls Added Today

Colorado
Mason-Dixon - Obama 49 (44), McCain 44 (44) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (9/29-10/1)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.8% 50.9% 50.2%
McCain: 44.3% 44.3% – 44.5%
Margin: 6.5% 6.6% 5.7%
Status: Weak Obama

This poll agrees with a few polls recently, but the bulk of the polls show a bit wider lead than this.  However, the trend is all in Obama’s favor for Mason-Dixon.

Illinois
Rasmussen - Obama 60 (56), McCain 38 (39) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 1 (10/13)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 58.7% 58% 58%
McCain: 35.8% 34.4% 34.4%
Margin: 22.9% 23.6% 23.6%
Status: Strong Obama

Wouldn’t you rather have more polls of Pennsylvania than polls of Illinois? Yeah, so would I.

Kentucky
Survey USA - McCain 56 (54), Obama 40 (41) | 616 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - Nov. 1 (10/18-10/20)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 54.2% 53.8% 53.6%
Obama: 40.8% 41% 40.6%
Margin: 13.4% 12.8% 13%
Status: Strong McCain

This is mostly float in the poll, probably.  We’re still looking at a Kentucky margin of about 13%.

Maine
Rasmussen - Obama 56 (51), McCain 43 (46) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Nov. 1 (Oct. 2)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 54.1% 53.1% 53.1%
McCain: 40.1% 38.4% 38.4%
Margin: 14% 14.7% 14.7%
Status: Strong Obama

There wasn’t any news about Maine’s 2nd Congressional District’s Electoral Vote, which republicans will sometimes target, but with a margin this large, it’s likely that it is pretty safe as well.

Michigan
Selzer & Co. - Obama 53 (51), McCain 37 (38) | 616 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31 (9/22-9/24)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.4% 52.3% 51.8%
McCain: 40% 40.4% 39.4%
Margin: 12.4% 11.9% 12.4% –
Status: Strong Obama

And the average for Michigan is exactly where it was last Monday.  Appears like this state is stable with about a 12% lead for Obama.

Minnesota
Star Tribune - Obama 53 (52), McCain 42 (41) | 993 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/16-10/17)
Survey USA - Obama 49 (50), McCain 46 (44) | 669 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 (10/16-10/18)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.2% 52.4% 51%
McCain: 41% 40.3% 40.8%
Margin: 11.2% 12.1% 10.2%
Status: Strong Obama

Obama’s lead in Minnesota appears to have solidified to between 10% and 12%.  The presidential race in Minnesota shouldn’t give us much excitement on Tuesday.

A note on the Survey USA poll - they’ve tended to strongly favor McCain in Minnesota, for some reason.  Their last poll was +6, and the last poll to show Obama behind in the state was a Survey USA poll from the start of the month.  No poll has shown a margin this close since ARG showed a 1% race 16 polls ago.

Missouri
Mason-Dixon - McCain 47 (46), Obama 46 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/22-10/12)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 47.5% 47.7% 47.7%
McCain: 47.4% 47.4% – 46.5%
Margin: 0.1% 0.3% 1.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

If it’s possible, Missouri i now even tighter than Indiana, as McCain has virtually entirely chipped away at Obama’s lead from last Monday.

Nevada
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (47), McCain 43 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/8-10/9)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49.4% 49.7% 48.5%
McCain: 44.2% 44.4% 45.6%
Margin: 5.2% 5.3% 2.9%
Status: Weak Obama

What? A somewhat normal poll from Mason-Dixon? Yes, but it’s still a tad below normal.  The thing Obama can like about this poll is that the trend is in his favor (or more correctly, McCain is losing ground).

New Mexico
Albuquerque Journal - Obama 51 (45), McCain 43 (40) | 600 LV - 4% | 10/28-10/30 (9/29-10/2)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 53.1% 53.7% 51.3%
McCain: 43.3% 43.3% – 43.2%
Margin: 9.8% 10.4% 8.1%
Status: Strong Obama

New Mexico is once again normalizing in the Weak Obama category after the outlier from earlier in the week.  This remains around an 8% race.

North Carolina
Mason-Dixon - McCain 49 (47), Obama 46 (47) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/23-10/25)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 47.9% 48% 48.2%
McCain: 46.3% 46.1% 46.9%
Margin: 1.6% 1.9% 1.3%
Status: Too Close To Call

This is bad news for Obama if true.  Even if you want to reduce the margin because of Mason-Dixon’s apparent GOP bias, the trend is still in McCain’s direction.  Obama still leads by 1.6% in the average.  However, this is the only poll Obama is trailing in the last 7, though he is tied in another.

Ohio
Mason-Dixon - McCain 47 (46), Obama 45 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/16-10/17)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49% 49.3% 48.9%
McCain: 44.2% 44% 44.7%
Margin: 4.8% 5.3% 4.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

Is this yet another wacky Mason-Dixon poll? It sure looks like it.  This is the first Ohio poll to have Obama trailing in 13 polls when R-leaning Strategic Vision had Obama trailing by 3 about a week ago.  It’s also Obama’s lowest number since then as well.

IIn any case, this poll throws Ohio back into the Too Close To Call category.

Pennsylvania
PPP - Obama 53, McCain 45 | 1,529 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2
Rasmussen - Obama 52 (51), McCain 46 (45) | 700 LV - 4% | Nov. 1 (10/30)
Survey USA - Obama 51 (53), McCain 44 (41) | 700 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/21-10/22)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.7% 51.7% – 51.3%
McCain: 42.8% 42.3% 41.4%
Margin: 8.9% 9.4% 9.9%
Status: Weak Obama

Another trio of close Pennsylvania polls, though in Rasmussen’s case the trend is in favor of Obama from Sunday, and nearly identical to the Rasmussen poll on Thursday, but is down from +13% from the start of the month.  Obama has now lost nearly a full percent in the average since Monday.

The last eight polls (from different pollsters) in the state now average a 51.5% to 43.9% lead - a margin of 7.6%.  It should also be noted that McCain does not get above 46 in any of those eight polls, while Obama’s low is 47%, he’s over 50% in 6 of those 8 polls (including 5 in a row), and the closest margin is still 4%.

Virginia
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (47), McCain 44 (45) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/20-10/21)
PPP - Obama 52 (52), McCain 46 (43) | 1,557 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 31 - Nov. 2 (10/21-10/23)
Survey USA - Obama 50 (52), McCain 46 (43) | 672 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 (10/25-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.2% 50.4% 50.6%
McCain: 44.4% 44% 44.4% –
Margin: 5.8% 6.4% 6.2%
Status: Weak Obama

Obama has lost the bump he got in the middle of the week and infact he has now lost ground since last Monday.  Five of the last ten polls have showed an Obama lead of 3% or 4%.  Virginia was looking like a sure thing earlier this week, but it’s now not so much of a sure thing.

If McCain keeps Virginia and were able to pick off an apparently narrowing Pennsylvania, odds are that he will win the election.

Overall Thoughts

It appears that McCain has generally tigthened things by 2% or so across the board, with increased tightening in Pennsylvania and Virginia in the past week (even if the average doesn’t quite show it yet).

Obama appears to have lost his grip on Indiana and Missouri this past week, while North Carolina is looking less and less certain by the day.  And as I noted, Virginia and Pennsylvania are tightening, though Pennsylvania especially is still a rather healthy lead (I’m not so sure anymore in Virginia).

Luckily for Obama, states like Colorado and Ohio seem to be resistent to this tigthening, at least so far (though Mason-Dixon disagrees in Ohio).  All of this doesn’t change the fact that McCain either needs to sweep all Bush states except Iowa and New Mexico, or to pull off the shocker in Pennsylvania.

Day 3 Roundup: A Key State Tightens

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on November 02, 2008
General / No Comments

Only 14 polls today as pollsters probably have their final polls that they want to release Monady in the field, as well as the fact that most pollsters probably wanted to avoid polling on Halloween as much as possible.

Today shows pretty much more of the same, except for 2 new key polls in Pennsylvania.

New Polls Added Today

Arkansas
ARG - McCain 51 (53), Obama 44 (41) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31 (9/20-9/22)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 52.1% 52.5% 51.6%
Obama: 42% 40.7% 38.8%
Margin: 10.1% 11.8% 12.8%
Status: Strong McCain

Is Obama closing the gap in Arkansas? Yeah, a little bit.  However, if you have 7 days to go, and you’re 13% down, and you only close 3% in 5 of those 7 days, it’s not going to be enough.  Obama may be able to pull within single digits, though.

California
Survey USA - Obama 60 (59), McCain 36 (35) | 637 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/15-10/16)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 57.5% 56.9% 57.5% –
McCain: 35.2% 34.9% 35.6%
Margin: 22.3% 22% 21.9%
Status: Strong Obama

Why are people still polling California?

Florida
ARG - Obama 50 (47), McCain 46 (46) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 31 (9/23-9/25)
Datamar - Obama 47 (49), McCain 47 (44) | 995 LV - 3.1% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/25-10/26)
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (45), McCain 45 (46) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/20-10/21)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48% 48% – 48.1%
McCain: 45.5% 45.4% 45.9%
Margin: 2.5% 2.6% 2.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

Obama is staying the course in Florida, continuing to hang on to a lead of around 2% in the state.  The key to a state like Florida will be turnout, and how the undecided break.  Assuming no third parties, Obama needs to currently win 31% of undecides in the state to win.  Typically undecideds don’t break harder for one candidate than the other, but the so-called Bradley effect, if it still exists (and there is good evidence that it doesn’t anymore), usually lives in the undecided vote.

Indiana
ARG - McCain 48 (47), Obama 48 (44)  | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 31 (9/14-9/18)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 47% 46.8% 46.3%
Obama: 46.8% 46.6% 47%
Margin: 0.2% 0.2% – -0.7%
Status: Too Close To Call

Did I mention that Indiana was really close?

Iowa
Selzer - Obama 54, McCain 37 | 814 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 28 - 31

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 53% 52.7% 52.2%
McCain: 40% 40.5% 40.9%
Margin: 13% 12.2% 11.3%
Status: Strong Obama

Iowa continues to solidify in favor of Obama, and this state still looks like the most likely to switch from Bush to Obama.

New Jersey
Monmouth - Obama 55 (55), McCain 34 (38) | 801 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/15-10/18)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 53.6% 53.4% 54.3%
McCain: 38% 38.6% 38.9%
Margin: 15.6% 14.8% 15.4%
Status: Strong Obama

The margin in New Jersey continues to hang around 15% for Obama, as the GOP has no allusion of a shot here this time.

New Mexico
Survey USA - Obama 52 (52), McCain 45 (45) | 664 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 29 - 31 (10/12-10/13)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 53.7% 54.2% 51.3%
McCain: 43.3% 42.8% 43.2%
Margin: 10.4% 11.4% 8.1%
Status: Strong Obama

New Mexico will probably float back down to Weak Obama by election day as the average corrects after the PPP outlier yesterday.  Obama probably still realistically still leads in the high single-digits, though.

Oregon
Rasmussen - Obama 54 (54), McCain 42 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30 (10/14)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 54.5% 54.6% 54%
McCain: 38.9% 38.4% 38.7%
Margin: 15.6% 16.2% 15.3%
Status: Strong Obama

Oregon continues to swing between 15% and 16% in the average, but remains a strong Obama state.

Pennsylvania
ARG - Obama 51 (50), McCain 45 (46) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 31 (9/20-9/22)
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (53), McCain 47 (46) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30 (10/27)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.7% 51.9% 51.3%
McCain: 42.3% 41.7% 41.4%
Margin: 9.4% 10.2% 9.9%
Status: Weak Obama

I think there is some undeniable tightening going on in Pennsylvania in the last few days.  The last six polls from the state are Obama +4%, +4%, +5%, +6%, +12%, and +13%.  Suddenly, the double-digit leads are looking like the outlers and the mid single-digit leads are looking like the norm.  The average margin will be slow to come down just because there are so many recent double-digit leads for Obama in the state, but if you look at the current polling, there is definite tightening going on.

Now, where is this tightening occurring?  The shift that the average is detecting seems to show that pretty much all of the closure is coming from McCain increasing his number than Obama losing support.  In fact, Obama’s average support is now nearing 52% in the state.

Looking at individual polls, Obama’s average number from the 29th through the 31st was 51.2%.  Obama’s average support from October 26th through October 28th was 52.7%.  Looking at the numbers that way suggest a tightening of about 1.5% of Obama’s margin.

McCain’s average from the 29th through the 31st was 43.8%.  His average from October 26th through 28th was 41.9% - a nearly 2% increase.

So, you can see, looking at it from this prospective, Obama has gone from a 52.7% to 41.9% lead - a margin of 10.8% - to a 51.2% to 43.8% lead - a margin of 7.4%, a closing of 3.4% by McCain in just 3 days.

Now, other states have a margin around 7% or so - New Mexico for example.  However, it’s the trend in Pennsylvania that should be worrying obama at this point.  A more than 1% drop per day is very sharp, and suddenly makes election day less predictable.

However, having said that, the margin is over 7%, meaning that McCain has to win virtually all independents, hope there is no significant third party support, and still has to grab more of Obama’s support.  That’s still quite a lot to ask, but it’s no longer looking like an impossible task for McCain to pull off in Pennsylvania.

South Dakota
Rasmussen - McCain 53 (54), Obama 44 (37) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30 (9/9)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 51.3% 49.7% 49.7%
Obama: 42.3% 40.8% 40.8%
Margin: 9% 8.9% 8.9%
Status: Weak McCain

This pretty much confirms what South Dakota looked like - a high McCain single-digit lead.

Utah
Dan Jones & Associates - McCain 57, Obama 32 | 1,205 RV - 2.9% | Oct. 24 - 30

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 56.6% 56.2% 63.5%
Obama: 31.7% 31.4% 28.1%
Margin: 24.9% 24.8% 35.4%
Status: Strong McCain

Some tightening in Utah since Monday, not that it really matters in a state where the margin is still 25%.

Overall Thoughts

I think I’ve said most of what can be said for today above under the Pennsylvania numbers.  Pennsylvania is now winnable by McCain in a McCain best case scenario, something which wasn’t the case only 3 days ago or so.  The question is whether McCain can continue to close, or whether he’s closed as much as he’s going to close.  What polls come out Monday say will be very important, including looking at the trends.

One also have to remember that the polls were much closer in Pennsylvania for both Gore and Kerry and both pulled out victories there.  The fact that Pennsylvania is fundamentally a blue state shouldn’t be discounted.

Day 4 Roundup: Only 1 work day to go

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on November 01, 2008
General / No Comments

Today we blow away the old record for number of polls in a single day as today sees 45 polls as we see pollsters trying to release polls before the weekend, and to set themselves up for their final polling over the weekend.

New Polls Added Today

Alaska
Research 2000 - McCain 58 (57) , Obama 39 (38) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/14-10/16)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 56.4% 55.7% 55%
Obama: 39.8% 40.1% 39.5%
Margin: 16.6% 15.6% 15.5%
Status: Strong McCain

Alaska is really the only surprise red state that looked like it might be a viable Obama opportunity over the summer which hasn’t eventually come back to Obama, for obvious reasons.

Arizona
ARG - McCain 50 (56), Obama 46 (39) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (9/11-9/14)
Research 2000 - McCain 48, Obama 47 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 48.6% 48.4% 47.8%
Obama: 44% 43.1% 41.9%
Margin: 4.6% 5.3% 5.9%
Status: Too Close To Call

Arizona is a real toss-up state, and if it wasn’t McCain’s home state, it would almost certainly go blue along with the rest of the southwest.  It’s hard to see how McCain loses this state, but at this point, you really can’t count that possibility out.  This newest polls pushes Arizona into the Too Close To Call category as well.

Colorado
ARG - Obama 52 (45), McCain 45 (48) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (9/23-9/25)
PPP - Obama 54 (52), McCain 44 (42) | 2,023 LV - 2.2% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/8-10/10)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.9% 50.5% 50.2%
McCain: 44.3% 44.3% – 44.5%
Margin: 6.6% 6.2% 5.7%
Status: Weak Obama

A 10% lead in the PPP poll is a little large, though not necessarily out of the realm of imagination, considering three recent polls have shown leads of 7% or 8%.  Colorado still looks like a strong single-digit lead for Obama.

Georgia
Rasmussen - McCain 52 (51), Obama 47 (46) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 30 (10/22)
Research 2000 - McCain 47 (49), Obama 44 (43)  | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/14-10/15)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 49.9% 49.9% – 49.9% –
Obama: 45.2% 45.1% 44.5%
Margin: 4.7% 4.8% 5.4%
Status: Too Close To Call

Like Arizona, Georgia is a toss-up for real.  The only question is whether African American turnout will be enough to carry Obama over the finish line.  Picking off Georgia might be the biggest prize of the night for Obama if he can pull it off.

Indiana
Survey USA - McCain 47 (45), Obama 47 (49) | 900 LV - 3.3% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/21-10/22)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 46.8% 46.8% – 46.3%
Obama: 46.6% 46.6% – 47%
Margin: 0.2% 0.2% – -0.7%
Status: Too Close To Call

Can you get much tighter? I mean, really?  I’m waiting for this state to be an exact tie on Election Day or something.

Iowa
Research 2000 - Obama 53 (54), McCain 39 (39) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/19-10/22)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.7% 52.7% – 52.2%
McCain: 40.5% 40.8% 40.9%
Margin: 12.2% 11.9% 11.3%
Status: Strong Obama

McCain apparently said that their Iowa polls were tied.  Well, sure, if you take the margin of error for each candidate and then give all undecideds to McCain, then McCain has a 2% lead! See how easy that was!

But seriously, Obama’s margin now hits 12% in Iowa.  McCain would need a turnout miracle to keep this state red.

Kentucky
Mason-Dixon - McCain 51 (53), Obama 42 (41) | 817 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (9/22-9/25)
Research 2000 - McCain 56 (55), Obama 39 (39) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/19-10/21)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 53.8% 54% 53.6%
Obama: 41% 41.3% 40.6%
Margin: 12.8% 12.7% 13%
Status: Strong McCain

If you average these two polls together, you basically get what we already had - a McCain lead of around 13% or so.

Michigan
EPIC/MRA - Obama 50 (51), McCain 38 (37) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28 (10/19-10/22)
PPP - Obama 55 (51), McCain 42 (41) | 1,532 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 28 - 30 (9/29-10/1)
Strategic Vision - Obama 54 (48), McCain 41 (45) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 27 - 29 (9/22-9/24)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.3% 51.9% 51.8%
McCain: 40.4% 40.2% 39.4%
Margin: 11.9% 11.7% 12.4%
Status: Strong Obama

It looks like McCain’s move to give up on Michigan might have been a wise one…of course the margin could be this large because he gave up on Michigan as well.  Obama still leads by about 12%, and he’s been over 50% in 9 straight polls dating back to the start of the month.

Minnesota
PPP - Obama 57, McCain 41 | 1,050 - 3% | Oct. 28 - 30
Research 2000 - Obama 53 (52), McCain 38 (39) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/14-10/15)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.4% 51.7% 51%
McCain: 40.3% 40.5% 40.8%
Margin: 12.1% 11.2% 10.2%
Status: Strong Obama

We’ve seen some amazing polls from Minnesota recently, showing margins of 15% twice, 16%, and 19% twice.  It’s making the 8% Mason-Dixon poll from yesterday look a little…off.  Minnesota still looks like a very strong Obama state.

Mississippi
Research 2000 - McCain 53 (50), Obama 40 (40) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/14-10/15)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 51.1% 50.1% 48.5%
Obama: 40% 39.8% 36.8%
Margin: 11.1% 10.3% 11.7%
Status: Strong McCain

Mississippi is still a pretty stable McCain state.  It’s still too deep south to take this time for Obama.

Missouri
ARG - Obama 58, McCain 48 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30
Insider Advantage - McCain 50, Obama 47 | 814 LV - 3.4% | Oct. 29

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 47.7% 47.8% 47.7% –
McCain: 47.4% 46.9% 46.5%
Margin: 0.3% 0.9% 1.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

It’s only two polls, but we’ve had two recent polls in Missouri showing McCain ahead.  Just like Indiana, McCain may be mounting a comeback here.  Unfortunately for him, Missouri is more like icing on Obama’s cake than a state that he needs to win.

Montana
ARG - McCain 49 (50), Obama 46 (45) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/6-10/8)
Research 2000 - McCain 48 (49), Obama 44 (45) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/15-10/16)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 48.2% 47.9% 46.8%
Obama: 44.8% 44.7% 44.1%
Margin: 3.4% 3.2% 2.7%
Status: Too Close To Call

McCain has been able to spread out his lead a little bit since Monday, but it’s still very close, especially considering the Montana tendency to like libertarian third parties.

New Hampshire
ARG - Obama 56 (52), McCain 41 (43) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/6-10/8)
Rasmussen - Obama 51 (50), McCain 44 (46) | 700 LV - 4% | Oct. 30 (10/23)
Research 2000 - Obama 51 (50), McCain 44 (43) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/17-10/19)
Strategic Vision - Obama 50 (46), McCain 41 (45) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 27 - 29 (9/22-9/24)
Survey USA - Obama 53 (53), McCain 42 (40) | 682 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/4-10/5)
UNH - Obama 54 (55), McCain 36 (39) | 619 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/24-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.1% 52.1% – 51.3%
McCain: 41.3% 40.6% 42.7%
Margin: 10.8% 11.5% 8.6%
Status: Strong Obama

Yet another group of polls showing that New Hampshire has sharply turned away from John McCain in the past week, which isn’t a good sign for him in regards to which way undecideds might break.  Rasmussen has always been somewhat conservative on New Hampshire, and even they have the margin at 7% now.

New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson - Obama 53 (50), McCain 35 (37) | 852 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 29 (9/29-10/5)
Survey USA - Obama 52 (55), McCain 42 (40) | 632 LV - 4% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/11-10/12)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 53.4% 53.9% 54.3%
McCain: 38.6% 38.6% – 38.9%
Margin: 14.8% 15.3% 15.4%
Status: Strong Obama

New Jersey is still rolling for Obama.

New Mexico
PPP - Obama 58 (53), McCain 41 (42) | 1,537 LV - 2.5% | Oct. 28 - 30 (9/17-9/19)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 54.2% 52.4% 51.3%
McCain: 42.8% 43.6% 43.2%
Margin: 11.4% 8.8% 8.1%
Status: Strong Obama

A 17% lead is the biggest lead Obama has had in any poll in the state and is probably and outlier considering other recent polls in New Mexico, where only 3 of the past 7 polls have shown a double digit lead in the state - two of them from Rasmussen and the last PPP poll.  Since New Mexico has been neglected by the pollsters, such a big lead in a single poll has been able to push New Mexico into the “Strong Obama” category for now, I don’t necessariy expect it to stay there when and if other polls come out for the state.

North Carolina
Civitas - Obama 47 (48), McCain 46 (45) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/18-10/20)
Elon - Obama 45 (44), McCain 38 (42) | 797 Adults - 3.5% | Oct. 27 - 30 (9/29-10/2)
Insider Advantage - Obama 48 (49), McCain 48 (48) | 641 LV - 3.7% | Oct. 29 (10/20)
Research 2000 - Obama 47 (46), McCain 45 (44) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 30 (10/14-10/15)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48% 48.4% 48.2%
McCain: 46.1% 46.6% 46.9%
Margin: 1.9% 1.8% 1.3%
Status: Too Close To Call

We’re starting to see a very small, but somewhat sustained increase of Obama’s support in North Carolina, approaching 2% now.  Interestingly, this is from both candidates losing support, though McCain more than Obama.  I’m not sure what is exactly up with that.  Maybe some people moving to 3rd party candidates? I don’t know.

North Dakota
Research 2000 - McCain 47 (45), Obama 46 (45) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/14-10/15)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 45% 44.3% 44.3%
McCain: 45.7% 44% 44%
Margin: -0.7% 0.3% 0.3%
Status: Too Close To Call

It would be nice to have someone other than Research 2000 poll North Dakota (they’ve done 3 of the last 5 polls in the state).  I’m surprised no one else major has tried polling the state.   I guess they think it’s 3 Electoral Votes isn’t worth doing a poll

Ohio
Ohio University - Obama 57, McCain 41 | 611 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 12 - 23

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49.3% 49% 48.9%
McCain: 44% 44.1% 44.7%
Margin: 5.3% 4.9% – 4.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

I think this poll is clearly an outlier.  No other poll shows such a lead in Ohio.  However, this poll is already 5 days old given the dates of the survey, plus there are so many recent polls now that such an outlier can’t affect the averages too horribly much.  Nevertheless, this poll pushes Ohio into the Weak Obama category.  However, that probably would have happened for any poll which Obama led by at least 6%, so it’s not like such a move is dramatic.

Oklahoma
Survey USA - McCain 63 (59), McCain 34 (35) | 594 LV - 4% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/18-/10/19)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 62.4% 62.2% 62.2%
Obama: 33.7% 33.5% 33.5%
Margin: 28.7% 28.7% – 28.7% –
Status: Strong McCain

Oklahoma stays steady as McCain’s best state.

Oregon
Portland Tribune - Obama 53, McCain 34 | 500 RV - 4.4% | Oct. 23 - 25
PPP - Obama 57, McCain 42 | 1,424 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 28 - 30
Research 2000 - Obama 55 (53), McCain 39 (38) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/14-10/15)
Survey USA - Obama 57 (57), McCain 38 (38) | 700 LV - 3.7% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/25-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 54.6% 53.2% 54%
McCain: 38.4% 38.3% 38.7%
Margin: 16.2% 14.9% 15.3%
Status: Strong Obama

Oregon continues to roll.  And to think that this state was once very close to, if not in, the Too Close To Call category over the summer.

Pennsylvania
Strategic Vision - Obama 49 (50), McCain 44 (43) | 1,200 LV - 3% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/20-10/22)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.8% 51.9% 51.3%
McCain: 41.8% 41.7% 41.4%
Margin: 10% 10.2% 9.9%
Status: Strong Obama

Some notes on this Strategic Vision poll:

  1. It’s slightly Republican Leaning, usually by about 2 or 3%, so take that into account when you see the 5% margin
  2. The change in the poll is pretty small from a week ago, so if things “haven’t changed much” from a week ago, that would seemingly be a good thing for Obama
  3. Having said these things, having two polls coming out on two straight days showing the race within 5% has to put at least a ping of worry into the hearts of the Obama campaign.

West Virginia
PPP - McCain 55 (50), Obama 42 (42) | 2,128 LV - 2.1% | Oct. 29 - 30 (10/16-10/17)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 50.1% 49.1% 49.1%
Obama: 42.7% 42.9% 42.9%
Margin: 7.4% 6.2% 6.2%
Status: Weak McCain

This is the widest margin we’ve seen for a West Virginia poll for a while.  We knew McCain was mid to high single-digits, but this poll is showing it pretty solid double digits.  Has McCain started pulling away?  We’ll probably need to see a couple more polls to know for sure.

Wisconsin
University of Wisconsin - Obama 54, McCain 38 | 538 Adults - 4.2% | Oct. 21 - 28

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.2% 52% 51.6%
McCain: 40.8% 41.1% 41.2%
Margin: 11.4% 10.9% 10.4%
Status: Strong Obama

I hate polls which just do “adults” but I didn’t make any restriction against it, so into the database it goes.  It’s a rather large lead, though a recent Survey USA poll had a similar margin.

Wyoming
Research 2000 - McCain 61 (58), Obama 36 (35) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/14-10/16)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 59.4% 58.1% 58.1%
Obama: 35.4% 34.8% 34.8%
Margin: 24% 23.3% – 23.3% –
Status: Strong McCain

Well…it’s Wyoming.

Overall Thoughts

Once again, let’s look at states that were “Weak” or “Too Close To Call” in at least one of the three averages that I provide-

States in which Obama is improving (improvement since Monday in parentheses):

  • Arizona (+1.3%)
  • Colorado (+0.9%)
  • Georgia (+0.7%)
  • New Hampshire (+2.2%)
  • New Mexico (+3.3%)
  • North Carolina (+0.6%)
  • Ohio (+1.1%)
  • Pennsylvania (+0.1%)

States in which McCain is improving

  • Indiana (+0.9%)
  • Missouri (+0.9%)
  • Montana (+0.7%)
  • North Dakota (+1%)
  • West Virginia (+1.2%)

So, some notes - in most 2004 battlegrounds, Obama is expanding his lead, and expanding it rather substantially, along with some other states which have increased participation for Democratic-leaning minorities (see: Arizona and Georgia).  Most of McCain’s gains are in states that are blood red, except maybe Missouri.

As for Pennsylvania, McCain living in the state may be preventing Obama from expanding his lead in that state like he is in many of the other blue states, but thus far McCain hasn’t been able to actually eat into Obama’s lead there yet.

And notice what’s missing today: no polls for Florida or Virginia came out today, and we still had 45 polls.

Day 5 Roundup

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on October 31, 2008
General / No Comments

Obama continues to cruise as we get 34 more polls entered into the database today, the most polls yet since I started keeping track on Monday.  In the four days since and including Monday, 120 polls have been released.

We are now at 1,350 total polls and we’ve broken through the 900,000 respondent barrier today (and that’s just polls included in my database.  That doesn’t count national polls or daily tracking polls that I skip because they overlap).  We could feasibly hit 1,500 total polls entered in the database by election day, and at an average of 670 respondents per poll, that could get us to over 1 million respondents.

When this is over, I should do a poll of all polls and calculate the total percent of all people surveyed which support each candidate.

New Polls Added Today

Alabama
Survey USA - McCain 61 (62), Obama 36 (35) | 650 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/8-10/9)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 59% 57.4% 57.4%
Obama: 35.2% 34.4% 34.4%
Margin: 23.8% 23% 23%
Status: Strong McCain

While Georgia might be close, no such luck for Obama in Georgia’s neighbor and reddest state in the South.

Arizona
CNN - McCain 53, Obama 46 | 807 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 27
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 48.4% 47.4% 47.8%
Obama: 43.1% 42.3% 41.9%
Margin: 5.3% 5.1% 5.9%
Status: Weak McCain

These two polls still suggest that the race in Arizona is probably hanging somewhere around the 5% mark or so.  McCain should still win the state, but being within 5% still has to give him indigestion.

California
Field - Obama 55 (52), McCain 33 (36) | 966 LV - 3.3% | Oct. 18 - 28 (9/5-9/14)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.7% 57.5% 57.5%
McCain: 34.9% 35.6% 35.6%
Margin: 22% 21.9% 21.9%
Status: Strong Obama

I guess we can have one more California poll snuck in before the election…

Colorado
Marist - Obama 51, McCain 45 | 682 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
National Journal - Obama 48 (45), McCain 44 (44) | 409 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.5% 50.8% 50.2%
McCain: 44.3% 44.2% 44.5%
Margin: 6.2% 6.6% 5.7%
Status: Weak Obama

Neither of these polls look all that far off, though Obama under 50% in the National Journal poll is a bit different from most other Colorado polls (though, he’s under 50% in all the National Journal polls, and they have a high level of undecideds, suggesting they didn’t push leaners).  Even including it, Obama is at or over 50% in 10 of the past 11 polls.  Meanwhile, McCain continues to struggle to even break 46% in any poll in the state.

Florida
National Journal - Obama 45 (44), McCain 44 (44) | 408 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48% 48.2% 48.1%
McCain: 45.4% 45.5% 45.9%
Margin: 2.6% 2.7% 2.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

We appear to be having a battle between polls which give Obama a slight advantage and those which think the race is essentially tied.  Among the most recent polls, we see polls showing Obama leads of 4%, 4%, 5%, 5%, and 7%.  Meanwhile, other polls are showing a race of tied, 1%, 2%, and 2%.  This may very well be a matter of turnout models within the polls, with a the polls using a more traditional turnout model showing a near tied race while those which use a more expanded model showing a wider race.  Of course, we won’t know which is right until election day.

Indiana
Indianapolis Star - Obama 46 (47), McCain 45 (44) | 606 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28 (9/14-9/16)
Rasmussen - McCain 49 (50), Obama 46 (43) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/7)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 46.6% 46.9% 47%
McCain: 46.8% 46.5% 46.3%
Margin: -0.2% 0.4% 0.7%
Status: Too Close To Call

McCain seems to have been slowly but surely clawing away at Obama’s very small lead in Indiana, and today he’s finally been able to recapture the lead himself.  The drop from a 7% lead to a 3% lead in Rasmussen may be more of a correction from a bad poll more than actual movement, as McCain held leads of 2% and 4% in the two Rasmussen Indiana polls before that.

Iowa
Survey USA - Obama 55 (54), McCain 40 (41) | 658 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/8-10/9)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.7% 52.2% 52.2%
McCain: 40.8% 40.9% 40.9%
Margin: 11.9% 11.3% 11.3%
Status: Strong Obama

Obama has been at or over 50% for 13 straight polls and 16 of the past 17 polls in the state, dating back to the start of August.  Iowa is about the surest Bush 2004 state that to go Obama this election.

Kentucky
Rasmussen - McCain 55 (52), Obama 43 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 29 (10/21)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 54% 53.6% 53.6%
Obama: 41.3% 40.6% 40.6%
Margin: 12.7% 13% 13%
Status: Strong McCain

I don’t think Obama has any chance of winning in Kentucky, but an improved performance - such as closing to within single digits - may be able to bring Lunsford over the line in his Senate race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Louisiana
Loyola - McCain 43, Obama 40 | 500 RV - 4.5% | Oct. 26 - 28

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 50.1% 53.9% 56.3%
Obama: 39.7% 39.5% 40.9%
Margin: 10.4% 14.4% 15.4%
Status: Strong McCain

This poll shows 15% undecided, which strongly suggests leaners weren’t pushed, and in a state like Louisiana, that probably causes McCain’s number to be underestimated.  Indeed, while Obama’s number of 40% isn’t really all that much off what he’s gotten in other polls, McCain has never been below 50%, much less as low as 43%.  This is on top of the fact that the two other recent polls in the state show McCain leads of 13% and 16%, so I would take this poll with about a Syracuse winter’s worth of salt.

Massachusetts
Survey USA - Obama 56 (59), McCain 39 (35) | 658 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/13-10/14)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 56.1% 56.7% 56.7%
McCain: 36.5% 34.9% 34.9%
Margin: 19.6% 21.8% 21.8%
Status: Strong Obama

Another contestant in the “which state can give Obama the biggest win” contest.

Minnesota
Mason-Dixon - Obama 48, McCain 40 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28
University of Minnesota - Obama 56 (54), McCain 37 (40) | 451 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 24 - 28 (10/3-10/5)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.7% 51.6% 51%
McCain: 40.5% 41.1% 40.8%
Margin: 11.2% 10.5% 10.2%
Status: Strong Obama

Hmm, up by 19% or up by 8%?  Well, the 8% poll is certainly closer to the average, but Obama’s support doesn’t really match up with most other polls.  Obama still holds a double-digit lead in Minnesota in any case.

Montana
Rasmussen - McCain 50, (52) Obama 46 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 29 (10/1)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 47.9% 46.8% 46.8%
Obama: 44.7% 44.1% 44.1%
Margin: 3.2% 2.7% 2.7%
Status: Too Close To Call

Not only is Obama still within 5% of McCain in Montana, we get this piece of news from Rasmussen:

Six percent (6%) of McCain voters might vote for a third-party candidate while Obama faces no such threat.

Rasmussen mentions Paul - who is on the ballot, actually against his wishes, courtesy of the Constitution Party - but Libertarian candidate Bob Barr is on the ballot as well.

Nevada
CNN - Obama 52 (51), McCain 45 (46) | 684 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/19-20/21)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49.7% 49.4% 48.5%
McCain: 44.4% 44.3% 45.6%
Margin: 5.3% 5.1% 2.9%
Status: Weak Obama

Obama continues to expand his lead in Nevada - a critical swing state in case McCain pulls off the impossible in Pennsylvania (Obama winning All Kerry states except Pennsylvana + Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada still gives Obama 270 Electoral Votes.  Yes, Obama has a path to victory without Ohio, Florida, AND Pennsylvania, if necessary.)  Obama has also hit 50% in 4 straight polls in Nevada.

New Hampshire
Suffolk - Obama 53 (46), McCain 40 (45) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 29 (9/20-9/24)
UNH - Obama 54 (55), McCain 36 (39) | 619 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 27 - 29 (10/24-10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.1% 51.6% 51.3%
McCain: 40.6% 41.5% 42.7%
Margin: 11.5% 10.1% 8.6%
Status: Strong Obama

Something seemed to snap in New Hampshire as we’re suddenly being flooded with double-digit polls for Obama - enough to raise his margin nearly 3% from Monday.  Five straight polls, and six of the last eight polls have shown Obama with a double digit lead.

New Jersey
Research 2000 - Obama 54 (50), McCain 38 (41) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 28 (9/9-9/11)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 53.9% 54% 54.3%
McCain: 38.6% 38.8% 38.9%
Margin: 15.3% 15.2% 15.4%
Status: Strong Obama

Despite all the red arrows, the race in New Jersey is still pretty stable at around a 15% Obama lead.

North Carolina
CNN - Obama 52 (51), McCain 46 (47) | 667 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/19-10/21)
National Journal - Obama 47, McCain 43 | 402 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27
Rasmussen - Obama 50 (48), McCain 48 (49) | 1,000 LV - 3% | Oct. 29 (10/26)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48.4% 48.1% 48.2%
McCain: 46.6% 46.8% 46.9%
Margin: 1.8% 1.3% 1.3%
Status: Too Close To Call

Is North Carolina beginning to widen for Obama?  Mmm…maybe, but it’s still too early to tell (not that we have much time left to see).  In the last 7 polls, Obama’s lead in the state has been 1%, 2%, 2% 4%, 4%, and 6% with one poll showing a McCain lead of 1%.  So nearly half the most recent polls show Obama with a 4% or greater lead (and one of the 2% polls showing him at 50%)?  I don’t think we’ve seen as many polls showing that much of a lead for 10 days or so.  What does it mean?  I’m not sure we know.  About the only thing we can do here is collect more data.

Ohio
CNN - Obama 51 (50), McCain 47 (46) | 779 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/19-10/21)
National Journal - Obama 48 (41), McCain 41 (42) | 404 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49% 48.9% 48.9%
McCain: 44.1% 44.2% 44.7%
Margin: 4.9% 4.7% – 4.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

Obama inches ever closer to an average of 50% in the state of Ohio, now reaching the 49% mark.  Obama has now led in 11 straight polls in Ohio, as well as 15 of the last 16 polls.  Also Ohio could not have a larger margin and still be a Too Close To Call state.

Pennsylvania
CNN - Obama 55 (47), McCain 43 (46) | 768 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (9/21-9/23)
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47 (46), McCain 43 (44) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28 (9/16-9/18)
Muhlenberg - Obama 54, McCain 41 | 602 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 29

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.9% 51.9% – 51.3%
McCain: 41.7% 41.5% 41.4%
Margin: 10.2% 10.4% 9.9%
Status: Strong Obama

This Mason-Dixon poll is the one I was writing about this morning.  To put this poll into prospective, consider this:

  • The last poll to have Obama under 50% in Pennsylvania was a Susquehanna poll which had the race at 48% to 40% back on October 16 - 19, and was 15 polls ago, and that was the only poll in the previous 21 polls to show that.
  • The last poll to have Obama at 47% or lower was a Muhlenberg poll conducted September 21 - 25 and was 29 polls ago.  It was also the last poll to show the race at 4% or closer.

Given the fact that Mason-Dixon has been known to put out some whoppers before, unless another reputable pollster confirms this, I don’t believe that Mason-Dixon poll at all (and the two other polls released today showing double digit leads doesn’t help them).

South Carolina
NBC - McCain 53, Obama 42 | 400 LV - 5% | Oct. 25 - 28
Survey USA - McCain 52 (55), Obama 44 (51) | 654 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/12-10/13)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 53.4% 54.5% 54.5%
Obama: 41.5% 39.6% 39.6%
Margin: 11.9% 14.9% 14.9%
Status: Strong McCain

It may be interesting to see if the African-American vote can pull South Carolina to within single digits on election day, but McCain is in no immediate danger in South Carolina unless election day is just a complete landslide.  Having said that, Obama is a couple of good polls from pushing this state from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.

Texas
University of Texas - McCain 51, Obama 40 | 550 RV - 4.2% | Oct. 15 - 22

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 52.9% 53.7% 53.7%
Obama: 41.1% 41.5% 41.5%
Margin: 11.8% 12.2% 12.2%
Status: Strong McCain

McCain still has a good margin here - it’s over 10%, though for such a red state, he probably wishes his average support was higher than what it is.

Virginia
Marist - Obama 51, McCain 47 | 671 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27
National Journal - Obama 48 (41), McCain 44 (48) | 404 LV - 4.9% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/11-9/15)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.4% 50.5% 50.6%
McCain: 44% 43.8% 44.4%
Margin: 6.4% 6.7% 6.2%
Status: Weak Obama

Is Obama’s lead in Virginia starting to tighten?  Three of the last four polls from the state now show only a 4% lead in the state for Obama.  However, there is still an awful lot of very recent polls showing a much wider race, but this may be something to watch over the next few days.

Wisconsin
Survey USA - Obama 55 (51), McCain 39 (43) | 667 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 28 - 29 (10/18-10/19)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52% 51.5% 51.6%
McCain: 41.1% 41.4% 41.2%
Margin: 10.9% 10.1% 10.4%
Status: Strong Obama

Wisconsin continues to bounce around 10 or 11%, but this state has been relatively stable for a while.

Overall Thoughts

A few days ago I went through this exercise, and I thought with 5 days to go, I would be a good time to do it again, so here I go:

Currently, my averages show that Obama leads McCain among “Strong” states - states where their lead is at or over 10% - 259 to 124 Electoral Votes.  That’s a good sign for Obama right there that he’s only 11 Electoral Votes shy from winning just including states where he holds an average double-digit lead.

Next, we have the “Weak” States:

State Obama McCain Margin
Nevada 49.7% 44.4% 5.3% Obama
Arizona 43.1% 48.4% 5.3% McCain
Colorado 50.5% 44.3% 6.2% Obama
West Virginia 42.9% 49.1% 6.2% McCain
Virginia 50.4% 44% 6.4% Obama
New Mexico 52.4% 43.6% 8.8% McCain
South Dakota 40.8% 49.7% 8.9% McCain

Comparing this to Saturday, virtually all the movement has been to Obama: Nevada has gone from Too Close to Call to “Weak Obama”, Arizona has gone from “Strong McCain” to “Weak McCain,” New Hampshire has gome from “Weak Obama” to “Strong Obama,” Obama has increased his leads in Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico, and Georgia, which was a “Weak McCain” state on Saturday, has dropped to Too Close To Call.  The only movement in McCain’s favor here is that he’s increased his lead in West Virginia.

Including Weak states, Obama’s total has increased while McCain’s has decreased with Obama going from a 286-157 Electoral Vote lead to a 291-142 Electoral Vote lead, which is both the highest total Obama has ever held as well as the lowest total McCain has ever had.

Next, I’ll look at the Too Close To Call states, and like on Saturday, I’ll split them into three groups:

  • “likely” states - states where a candidate holds a lead of at least 4%
  • “probable” states - states where a candidate leads by between 2% and 3.9%
  • “true toss-up” states - states where the lead is under 2%

First up are like Likely states, and each candidate has one this time:

State Obama McCain Margin
Georgia 45.1% 49.9% 4.8% McCain
Ohio 49% 44.1% 4.9% Obama

As you can see, both of these states are pretty even in their margin.  The main difference is, however, that Georgia has been heading down while Ohio has been heading up, and indeed, Ohio’s margin on Saturday was Obama by 4.1%.  Instead of being on the border line of “likely” and “probable,” Ohio is on the border of “likely but Too Close To Call” and “Weak Obama.”

Adding these two states to the total makes the Electoral count Obama 311, McCain 157.

Next, it’s onto the “probable” states:

State Obama McCain Margin
Florida 48% 45.4% 2.6% Obama
Montana 44.7% 47.9% 3.2% McCain

We’ve seen a sharp drop in “probable” states, down from 5 on Saturday to 2 today.  Missouri and Indiana has dropped down into the “true toss-up” category while Nevada has jumped all the way up to “Weak Obama.”

Meanwhile, both candidates have slightly improved their margins in these states since Saturday, with Florida going from 2.1% Obama to 2.6% Obama and Montana going from 2.4% McCain to 3.2% McCain.   However, the very fact that Montana is even in the Too Close To Call category at all has to give McCain heartburn.

Adding these states to the totals changes the totals to Obama 338, McCain 160.

Finally, it’s on to the “true toss-up” states, and this category has grown from 2 states to 4 states, partly thanks to Indiana and Missouri tightenign up:

State Obama McCain Margin
Indiana 46.6% 46.8% 0.2% McCain
North Dakota 44.3% 44% 0.3% Obama
Missouri 47.8% 46.9% 0.9% Obama
North Carolina 48.4% 46.6% 1.8% Obama

Some good news and bad news for both candidates here.  First, North Carolina is trending towards Obama, with Obama increasing his margin from 1.3% to 1.8%, but it is still extremely tight.  Meanwhile, McCain has closed the margin in Missouri to under 1% and has even taken a very, very, very tiny lead in Indiana.  North Dakota is still sitting there waiting for people to poll it.  I just don’t think people can really comprehend a state like North Dakota being not only a toss-up but perhaps one of the closest states in the election.

Based on percentages, the current “flip” state this election is actually Virginia now - the first time in forever that it hasn’t been Colorado.  Virginia’s lead in Virginia sits at 6.4%, so for McCain to win, he would need to swing the vote in states, on average, by over 6% from where they are now in only 5 days.  That basically amounts to a tie national popular vote if one looks at the national pollls, where Obama’s margin sits at about 6%.  That would include losing Colorado and Nevada, by the way, as well.

One important measure is by looking at states where candidates are over 50%, and currently that count is Obama 282, McCain 124.  That amounts to all “Strong Obama” states minus Rhode Island*, plus New Mexico, Virginia, and Colorado.  For McCain, it amounts to his “Strong McCain” states and only those states.

* - Rhode Island hasn’t had much polling, and all of the 3 most recent polls failed to push leaners, having both candidates under 50%.  However, Obama still holds a 18.9% lead in the state.

The Obama campaign, fearful that undecides may break heavily towards McCain, have also said that they wouldn’t be comfortable unless they were at 48% in a state (and presumably leading).  Obama’s count in all states where he’s at 48% and leading is 353 Electoral Votes - all “Strong Obama” states, all “Weak Obama” states, plus Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

In states where Obama is over 48% but under 50%, he would need to win the following ratio of undecided voters to get over 50%, assuming no one voted 3rd party:

  • Nevada - 5%
  • Ohio - 15%
  • Florida - 30%
  • North Carolina - 32%

In states where Obama leads, but by under 48%, the ratios are this:

  • Missouri - 41%
  • North Dakota - 49%

And just for kicks, here are states where Obama trails, but McCain is under 50%:

  • Montana - 72%
  • Arizona - 81%
  • West Virginia - 89%
  • South Dakota - 97%
  • Georgia - 98%

So we basically have 3 groups

  1. One group where Obama only needs 1/3 of undecideds to break his way, which even the most pessimistic people think he’ll get at least that much
  2. One group where Obama needs about a 50/50 split
  3. One group where Obama can’t rely on the undecided split and instead needs a turnout which favors him to win.

Of course, if Obama gets to that 3rd group, he’s already running away with the election.

Mason-Dixon

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on October 30, 2008
Mason-Dixon / 2 Comments

Well, we might know what pollster the GOP is using to get their numbers (OK, that’s a joke…sort of) with Mason-Dixon releasing a poll this morning showing McCain only down 4% in Pennsylvania, 47-43.  Of course, the issue with this poll is that it’s completely unlike any other poll in the state.

This isn’t the first time Mason-Dixon has released such a poll:

  • Michigan - In their Sept. 18 - 23 poll, Mason-Dixon showed Michigan tied, even though polls released at the same time showed the race +5, +7, +7, +8, +10, and +13 in the state
  • New Mexico - In their August 13 - 15 poll, they showed McCain up 4% when other polls at the time showed Obama up 4%, 6%, and 13%
  • Virginia - In their Oct. 20 - 21 poll, they showed only a 2% Obama lead when other polls at the time showed Obama leads of 10%, 6%, 10%, 9%, 9%, and 8%

To be sure, Mason-Dixon has also released quite a few polls which are right in line with the other polls in the state.  However, Mason-Dixon has a bad habit of having a slight GOP bias and, as I’ve shown above, sometimes a pretty significant GOP bias that amounts to McCain performing anywhere from 5% to 8% better than he is in virutally any other poll released at the time.

Now, 538.com shows Mason-Dixon as slightly above-average compared to other pollsters in the primary, but of course, that’s the primary, where you don’t have to worry about things like…party weighing, for example.

Day 6 Roundup

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on October 30, 2008
General / No Comments

Today I debut my new results table to show changes in the averages.  I have three numbers on this table: the new averages after today, the averages after yesterday, and the averages after Monday.  The Monday numbers will stay there through the election to show what changes are taking place over the course of the week.

I also have tracker arrows next to the numbers from yesterday and Monday.  The numbers show whether the current numbers are lower (red arrow) or higher (green arrow) than the number shown for either yesterday or Monday.  By the way, the margin is based on who is leading, so an up arrow for the margin in a state McCain leads means he’s increased his margin in that state.

In any case, 30 new polls came out today (making it 86 new polls in 3 days).  Once again, a lot of love for battlegrounds, but also some love for the sure thing states.

Also, one final note: Research 2000 released a poll, but my policy, initially set up to address daily tracking polls, stipulates that I don’t include two polls from the same polling firm which overlap, which this poll does with another Indiana Research 2000 poll, so that poll has been left out.  I just wanted to note that this was the case.

New Polls Added Today

Alaska
Rasmussen - McCain 57 (55), Obama 41 (40) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/6)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 55.7% 55% 55%
Obama: 40.1% 39.5% 39.5%
Margin: 15.6% 15.5% 15.5%
Status: Strong McCain

The Palin effect still looms in Alaska.

Colorado
Associated Press - Obama 50, McCain 41 | 626 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 53 (51), McCain 45 (47) | 774 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.8% 50.6% 50.2%
McCain: 44.2% 44.5% 44.5%
Margin: 6.6% 6.1% 5.7%
Status: Weak Obama

Colorado increasingly looks like a state with an upper-single-digit margin for Obama with recent polls, including these, showing leads of 9%, 8%, 8%, and 12%, with really only Rasmussen showing something different at 4%.  This is also now 9 straight polls and 14 of the last 15 polls which show Obama at or over 50%.

Delaware
Survey USA - Obama 63 (57), McCain 33 (37) | 657 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (9/22-9/23)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 60% 55.8% 55.8%
McCain: 35.5% 39.2% 39.2%
Margin: 24.5% 16.6% 16.6%
Status: Strong Obama

And Delaware makes it two-for-two for running mates’ states being safe.

Florida
Associated Press - Obama 45, McCain 43 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 51 (51), McCain 47 (46) | 747 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)
Quinnipiac -  Obama 47 (49), McCain 45 (44) | 1,435 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48.2% 48.3% 48.1%
McCain: 45.5% 45.6% 45.9%
Margin: 2.7% 2.7% – 2.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

The three polls today average out exactly to the average after yesterday of 2.7%.  I’d say that’s a good show of consistency for Florida.  Also, Obama has now been over 50% in 3 straight polls, and have led or been tied in 9 straight polls.

Georgia
CNN/Time - McCain 52 (53), Obama 47 (45) | 690 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (10/11-10/14)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 49.9% 49.6% 49.9% –
Obama: 45.1% 44.8% 44.5%
Margin: 4.8% 4.8% – 5.4%
Status: Too Close To Call

Georgia remains a 5% race.  This will still be a tough race for Obama to pick off, but it will be a sucker punch to the GOP if he can do it.

Idaho
Harstad - McCain 55, Obama 32 | 502 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 19 - 22

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 62.2% 64.5% 64.5%
Obama: 31.7% 30% 30%
Margin: 24.8% 34.5% 34.5%
Status: Strong McCain

It might actually be a bit of an accomplishment if Obama could do well enough to not be doubled-up in some of these far west Mountain states where the GOP usually wins by ridiculous margins like 70 to 30 or 80 to 20.

Kansas
Survey USA - McCain 58 (53), Obama 37 (41) | 626 LV - 3..9% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/21-10/22)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 55.3% 53.5% 53.5%
Obama: 38.8% 40.1% 40.1%
Margin: 16.5% 13.4% 13.4%
Status: Strong McCain

Two polls in a week by the same pollster? Why? This isn’t Missouri or something.  In any case, Kansas is to McCain as Delaware is to Obama.  Safe.

Michigan
Rasmussen - Obama 53 (56), McCain 43 (40) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/8)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.9% 51.8% 51.8%
McCain: 40.2% 39.4% 39.4%
Margin: 11.7% 12.4% 12.4%
Status: Strong Obama

Onoz! Michigan is tightening!  OK, not really.  It’s still a more than solid lead for Obama here.

Minnesota
Rasmussen - Obama 55 (56), McCain 43 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/22)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.6% 51% 51%
McCain: 41.1% 40.8% 40.8%
Margin: 10.5% 10.2% 10.2%
Status: Strong Obama

If there was any hope that Minnesota was tightening up in the last couple of weeks, that hope is about gone for the McCain campaign.

Missouri
CNN/Time - McCain 50 (49), Obama 48 (48) | 825 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28 (Oct. 11 - 14)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 47.8% 47.7% 47.7%
McCain: 46.9% 46.5% 46.5%
Margin: 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

Missouri, for whatever reason, is getting neglected by the pollsters.  A mere six polls have been released for the state in the past week.  That may sound a lot until you start comparing to other states (Virginia, for example, has had 8 polls released in just the past 3 days).

However, what polls we have are a mix bag.  In those six polls, 3 show Obama ahead, 2 show McCain ahead, and 1 is a tie.  Missouri, like Indiana, is virtually a true tie and we may be staying up late to see which way this state goes.

Nevada
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 628 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 22 - 26
Research 2000 - Obama 50 (50), McCain 45 (43) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 28 (10/3-10/6)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 49.4% 48.9% 48.5%
McCain: 44.3% 44.8% 45.6%
Margin: 5.1% 4.1% 2.9%
Status: Weak Obama

As you can see, we’ve seen some major movement in Nevada towards Obama recently, with his average margin in the state going from 2.9% to over 5% in just two days now, making Nevada our newest Weak Obama state.  How long it stays there will depend on whether the next poll shows Obama ahead 5% or more or by less than 5%.

Nevada also has a mix of polls as well, with Suffolk and the AP showing a double digit race, while Rasmussen, Research USA, and Zogby show it as 4% or 5%.  Either way, it’s still an Obama lead, but a 4% lead is obviously less secure than a 10% lead.  5 of the last 6 polls in the state also show Obama at or over 50%.

New Hampshire
Associated Press - Obama 55, McCain 37 | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.6% 51.1% 51.3%
McCain: 41.5% 42.2% 42.7%
Margin: 10.1% 8.9% 8.6%
Status: Strong Obama

New Hampshire was looking vulnerable - that is until three polls have come out showing Obama with double digit leads of 11, 16, and now 18.  As a result, New Hampshire has, for the moment, moved back into the Strong Obama category.

New Mexico
Rasmussen - Obama 54 (55), McCain 44 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 28 (10/13)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 52.4% 51.3% 51.3%
McCain: 43.6% 43.2% 43.2%
Margin: 8.8% 8.1% 8.1%
Status: Weak Obama

New Mexico has been all but forgotten in poll-land.  It’s gotten fewer polls in the month of October than states such as California, Illinois, Kentucky, New York, and Oklahoma (and has gotten equal treatment with Wyoming).  This can also be illustrated by the fact that the last poll for this state was from…Rasmussen, nearly 2 weeks ago.

Of course, Obama is pretty close to running away with this state, so it’s not surprising people may pass it over, but come on people.

New York
Survey USA - Obama 62 (64), McCain 33 (31) | 633 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/11-10/12)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 61.3% 61% 61%
McCain: 32.6% 32.6% – 32.6% –
Margin: 28.7% 28.4% 28.4%
Status: Strong Obama

Why are people still polling New York?

North Carolina
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 46 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48.1% 48.1% –
 48.2%
McCain: 46.8% 46.9% 46.9%
Margin: 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% –
Status: Too Close To Call

This is what I’d call a stable race.  Two of the six comparisons are tied, and each of the other four are off by only 0.1%.  This remains a very close race, slightly favoring Obama.

Ohio
Associated Press - Obama 48, McCain 41 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Marist - Obama 48 (49), McCain 45 (45) | 661 LV - 4% | Oct. 24 - 26 (10/5-10/8)
Quinnipiac -  Obama 51 (52), McCain 42 (38) | 1,425 LV - 2.6% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 48.9% 48.9% – 48.9% –
McCain: 44.2% 44.4% 44.7%
Margin: 4.7% 4.5% 4.2%
Status: Too Close To Call

Here are the last eight poll margins for Obama in Ohio: 3%, 4%, 4%, 4%, 5%, 7%, 9%, and 9%.  We have a bit of tug of war between polls saying that the margin is 4% or lower and those that say it’s over 5%.  In any case, the margin appears to be somewhere in the mid-single-digits.  Obama has led in 13 of the past 14 polls in Ohio.

Pennsylvania
Associated Press - Obama 52, McCain 40 | 607 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
Franklin & Marshall - Obama 53 (48), McCain 40 (43) | 550(?) LV - 4.2% | Oct. 21 - 26 (9/23-9/28)
Marist - Obama 55 (53), McCain 41 (41) | 713 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/5-10/8)
Quinnipiac -  Obama 53 (53), McCain 41 (40) | 1,364 LV - 2.7% | Oct. 22 - 26 (10/16-10/21)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.9% 51.4% 51.3%
McCain: 41.5% 41.8% 41.4%
Margin: 10.4% 9.6% 9.9%
Status: Strong Obama

Having the state move from Weak Obama to Strong Obama is obviously not the direction McCain wants this state to move.  After a two day vacation in the Weak Obama category, it looks like Pennsylvania is widening back to a double-digit lead for Obama.  There are now 13 straight polls, and 20 of the last 21 polls, showing Obama at or over 50% in the state.

Utah
Mason-Dixon - McCain 55 (62), Obama 32 (23) | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25 (8/13-8/15)

Today Last 10/27
McCain: 56.2% 63.5% 63.5%
Obama: 31.4% 28.1% 28.1%
Margin: 24.8% 35.4% 35.4%
Status: Strong McCain

This poll is significant for several reasons, even though It’s Utah.

1. Along with the above Idaho poll, this makes it so that Obama is not currently being doubled-up in any state.  That would be an amazing feat considering just how red some of these western states can be.

2. Obama is now averaging over 30% in every state.  Ditto the same point as point 1 about how red these states are.  On the other hand, McCain is looking at a sub 30% number in Hawaii.

3. Obama is now within 30% in every state.

In short, on election night, typically even the best Democratic states weren’t slaughters, where the split may be at best 60/40.  Meanwhile, many Republican states could pad the popular vote total by racking up margins of 70/30 or even 80/20.

However, this year Obama appears to have balanced that out, and Obama’s best states are about the same, as far as margin, as McCain’s best states.  Of course, the difference is that McCain’s best states are states like Utah and Idaho when Obama’s are New York and Illinois.

Also, this makes Oklahoma McCain’s best state, with a margin of 28.7%.

Virginia
Associated Press - Obama 49, McCain 42 | 601 LV - 4% | Oct. 22 - 26
CNN/Time - Obama 53, McCain 44 | 721 LV - 3.5% | Oct. 23 - 28

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 50.5% 50.4% 50.6%
McCain: 43.8% 44% 44.4%
Margin: 6.7% 6.4% 6.2%
Status: Weak Obama

McCain continues to fall in Virginia as Obama pretty much keeps his support level at about 50.5%.  Obama’s lead in the state is now approaching 7% as he’s led in 21 straight polls in the state.

Wisconsin
Research 2000 - Obama 53 (52), McCain 42 (41) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 - 28 (10/20-10/21)

Today Last 10/27
Obama: 51.5% 51.4% 51.6%
McCain: 41.4% 41.2% 41.2%
Margin: 10.1% 10.2% 10.4%
Status: Strong Obama

One of these oddities where, due to how the weights on polls change as they age, a new poll pushes the average margin down, even when the poll has a margin larger than the average.

Overall Thoughts

Perhaps the status of the race can be described by sheer stats (only for states which had polls released today):

Weak or Too Close To Call states in which Obama has improved since Monday:

  • Colorado
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Mexico
  • Ohio
  • Pennsylvania
  • Virginia

Weak or Too Close To Call states in which McCain has improved since Monday:

  • Missouri

Meanwhile, here is a comparison of some Obama states vs. McCain states based on the average margin:

  • Florida is to Obama (2.7% lead) as Montana is to McCain (2.7% lead)
  • Ohio is to Obama (4.7% lead) as Georgia is to McCain (4.8% lead)
  • Nevada is to Obama (5.1% lead) as Arizona is to McCain (5.1% lead)
  • Colorado and Virginia are to Obama (6.6% and 6.7% lead) as West Virginia is to McCain (6.2% lead)
  • New Mexico is to Obama (8.8% lead) as South Dakota is to McCain (8.9%)
  • Pennsylvania is to Obama (10.4% lead) as Mississippi is to McCain (10.3% lead)

Just consider those comparisons for a moment.  According to the current margin, McCain coming back to win Pennsylvania would be like Obama picking off Mississippi.  And that’s supposed to be McCain’s big play.

Day 7 Roundup: 1 Week To Go

Posted by FleetAdmiralJ on October 28, 2008
General / No Comments

We don’t quite have the polling total as yesterday, but we still bring in a healthy haul of 25 new polls today.  We also have the first change of status for a state since I started doing my daily report, and it’s a state which McCain probably never though would be in contention this year.

New Polls Added Today

Arizona
Arizona State - McCain 46 (45), Obama 44 (38) | 1,019 LV - 3% | Oct. 23 - 26 (9/25-9/28)

Average: McCain: 47.4% (47.8%) Obama: 42.3% (41.9%) Margin: 5.1% (5.9%)

The polls coming out of Arizona are almost too good to be true.  We’ve now had 5 recent polls from this state showing the race to be McCain leads of 2, 4, 5, 8, and 2.  These polls have now pushed Arizona to the brink of being a Too Close To Call state.  If Obama has any organization at all in this state, he may just be able to flip it because, really, how much money do you think McCain has invested in Arizona?

Arkansas
Rasmussen - McCain 54 (51), Obama 44 (42) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 (9/22)

Average: McCain: 52.5% (51.6%) Obama: 40.7% (38.8%) Margin: 11.8% (12.8%)

Being over 50% in Arkansas since July, McCain looks like he still have Arkansas well within his grasp, regardless of what Dick Morris might say.

Colorado
Insider Advantage - Obama 53 (51), McCain 45 (46) | 636 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 26 (10/20)

Average: Obama: 50.6% (50.2%)
 McCain: 44.5% (44.5%)
 Margin: 6.1% (5.7%)

This 8% mark matches the POS (that is, Public Opinion Strategies) poll released a couple days ago.  Obama’s margin in Colorado once ahead heads over 6%, making it so that no Weak Obama state is in any imminent danger of dropping into the Too Close To Call category.

Florida
Datamar - Obama 49 (47), McCain 44 (42) | 630 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 25 - 26 (10/12-10/13)
LA Times - Obama 50, McCain 43 | 639 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27

Average: Obama 48.3% (48.1%)
 McCain: 45.6% (45.9%)
 Margin: 2.7% (2.2%)

This is the 2nd straight day that polls have come out with a larger margin for Obama than the existing average in the state.  Over the past 2 days we’ve had polls in Florida saying that either the race was tied (Zogby) and that Obama had leads of 4%, 5%, 5%, and 7%.  This strongly suggests that the tightening towards McCain that was occurring last week is now reversing itself, and Obama may be building a lead approaching 5% in the state again.

Indeed, in the last two days alone, the average margin for Obama in Florida has expanded from 2.1% to 2.7%.

However, the LA Times poll appears to be off on one account: It actually shows McCain winning the early vote 49% to 45%.  This is opposite everything I’ve seen anywhere else and is in opposition to the apparent demographics of the early voting segment.  Yet Obama still leads overall, suggesting that Obama’s lead among those who have yet to vote is even larger than 7%, according to the LA Times.

Georgia
Insider Advantage - McCain 48 (47), Obama 47 (48) | 637 LV - 3.8% | Oct. 27 (10/23)

Average: McCain: 49.6% (49.9%)
 Obama: 44.8% (44.5%)
 Margin: 4.8% (5.4%)

Say hello to the newest Too Close To Call state, as the average margin in the state falls below 5% for McCain.  How long this will last, I don’t know, since the two most recent polls are both Insider Advantage polls, so if another poll comes out showing the lead at bigger than 5%, this could easily flip back to Weak McCain.  However, a grey Georgia is definitely not what McCain wants to see.

Indiana
Howey-Gauge - McCain 47, Obama 45 | 600 LV - 4.1% | Oct. 23 - 24
Research 2000 - Obama 48 (46), McCain 47 (46) | 600 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25 (9/29-10/3)

Average: Obama: 46.9% (47%)
 McCain: 46.5% (46.3%)
 Margin: 0.4% (1.5%)

You can’t get much closer than this.  The margin is well under 1% in Indiana, with 4 of the past six polls favoring Obama and 2 favoring McCain.  We might be waiting well into the night for Indiana.

Louisiana
SE Louisiana Univ. - McCain 51, Obama 38 | 503 RV - 4.5% | Oct. 20 - 23

Average: McCain: 53.9% (56.3%) Obama: 39.5% (40.9%) Margin: 14.4% (15.4%)

This pretty much confirms a Rasmussen poll from a few days ago which says that this race has a margin in the mid-teens in favor of McCain.  It would take a true monumental landslide for McCain to lose this state.

Mississippi
Rasmussen - McCain 53 (52), Obama 45 (44) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 27 (9/30)

Average: McCain: 50.1% (48.5%) Obama: 39.8% (36.8%) Margin: 10.3% (11.7%)

As you can see from the trend, Rasmussen has tended to show the Presidential race in Mississippi a bit closer than most other pollsters.  Even so, McCain has been over 50% in every poll but one (and that poll had 21% undecideds), so this should still be a pretty safe McCain state.

Montana
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48, Obama 44 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25

Average: McCain: 46.8% (46.6%)
 Obama: 44.1% (44.2%)
 Margin: 2.7% (2.4%)

This is now the 4th straight poll showing Montana to be a bonafide battleground state.  Perhaps more concerning for McCain, it’s also the 3rd straight poll showing him under 50% in the state.

Nevada
Rasmussen - Obama 50 (50), McCain 46 (45) | 700 LV - 4% | Oct. 27 (10/16)
Suffolk - Obama 50, McCain 40 | 450 LV - 4.6% | Oct. 23 - 27 (9/17-9/21)

Average: Obama: 48.9% (48.5%)
 McCain: 44.8% (45.6%)
 Margin: 4.1% (2.9%)

Not much has changed here for Obama according to Rasmussen.  Meanwhile, Obama increases the average margin to over 4% and is very nearly to an average support level of 49%.  The outcome here is clearly not certain, but it continues to look good for Nevada.  However, the 10% lead in Suffolk is a little larger than we’ve seen everywhere else, as well.

New Hampshire
Mason-Dixon - Obama 50, McCain 39 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25

Average: Obama: 51.1% (51.3%)
 McCain: 42.2% (42.7%)
 Margin: 8.9% (8.6%)

This poll is right smack dab between the Rasmussen poll and the UNH poll, sharing the 39% McCain number with UNH and the 50% Obama number with Rasmussen.  We now have two pollsters showing this race in double-digits and two pollsters saying that it’s in the mid-single-digit range, so while it’s clear that Obama is ahead in New Hampshire, it’s still unclear by how much.

New Jersey
Strategic Vision - Obama 53 (48), McCain 38 (39) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/26-9/28)

Average: Obama: 54% (54.3%)
 McCain: 38.8% (38.9%)
 Margin: 15.2% (15.4%)

No stray thoughts about picking off New Jersey this year.

North Carolina
Mason-Dixon - Obama 47, McCain 47 | 625 LV - 4% | Oct. 23 - 25

Average: Obama: 48.1% (48.2%)
 McCain: 46.9% (46.9%)
 Margin: 1.2% (1.3%)

One thing is for certain: North Carolina is close.  The last 5 polls have showed 2 McCain leds (though both are Rasmussen), 2 Obama leads and a tie.  Can’t get much closer than that.

Ohio
LA Times - Obama 49, McCain 40 | 644 LV - 4% | Oct. 25 - 27
Survey USA - Obama 49 (50), McCain 45 (45) | 648 LV - 3.9% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/12-10/13)

Average: Obama: 48.9% (48.9%)
 McCain: 44.4% (44.7%)
 Margin: 4.5% (4.2%)

Early voting numbers are stellar in this state. Survey USA say 22% have already voted early, with the breakdown 56%-39% in favor of Obama while the LA Times says that 13% have voted early, and the margin there is a similar 57%-35%.

The LA Times poll seems a little overoptimistic.  The last 5 polls released over the past 3 days show margins for Obama of 4%, 4%, 5%, 4%, and the LA Times’ 9%.  Obama maintains a clear lead in the state, but probably not that large of a lead.

Pennsylvania
Insider Advantage - Obama 51, McCain 42 | 588 LV - 4% | Oct. 26
Rasmussen - Obama 53 (54), McCain 46 (41) | 500 LV - 4.5% | Oct. 26 (10/6)

Average: Obama: 51.4% (51.3%)
 McCain: 41.8% (41.4%)
 Margin: 9.6% (9.9%)

This marks some good news and some bad news for McCain.  The good news is that the Rasmussen poll marks a tightening of 6% from Rasmussen’s last poll nearly 3 weeks ago, to bring the race within 6%, the closest it’s been since a Franklin & Marshall poll showed the margin at 5% back in September.

The bad news for McCain is that there is only 1% undecided left and Obama is at 53% in the Rasmussen poll.  Also, it is the first poll to have McCain even over 43% in 23 polls dating back to the last week in September (including the Insider Advantage poll), so that 46% number for McCain is something I’d really like to see confirmed somewhere else before believing it.  These polls also mark 9 straight polls with Obama at or over 50% and 16 out of the last 17 polls.

Virginia
Roanoke College - Obama 48, McCain 39 | 614 LV - 4% | Oct. 19 - 26

Average: Obama 50.4% (50.6%)
 McCain: 44% (44.4%)
 Margin: 6.4% (6.2%)

Yet another poll showing Obama with a high single-digit lead.  This is the 5th poll (out of 6) in two days showing Obama with at least a 7% lead.  This is the only one of those polls that shows Obama below 50%, but that’s probably because leaners weren’t pushed hard, as this poll still shows 13% undecided.

Obama has now, in just 3 days, increased his average margin over McCain from 5% to 6.4%.  That signifies a significant widening in the polls in Obama’s favor in Virginia.

Vermont
Research 2000 - Obama 57 (55), McCain 36 (36) | 400 LV - 5% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/11-9/14)

Average: Obama: 55.7% (52.7%)
 McCain: 34.5% (31.4%)
 Margin: 21.2% (21.3%)

In other news: the Sun rises in the East.

Washington
Strategic Vision - Obama 54 (47), McCain 42 (42) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 25 - 26 (9/14-9/16)
Survey USA - Obama 56 (56), McCain 39 (40) | 630 LV - 4% | Oct. 26 - 27 (10/12-10/13)

Average: Obama: 54.5% (54.2%)
 McCain: 39.3% (38.7%)
 Margin: 15.2% (15.5%)

Same ole, same ole in Washington.  Obama maintains his 15% lead or so in the state.

Wisconsin
Strategic Vision - Obama 50 (49), McCain 41 (40) | 800 LV - 3% | Oct. 24 - 26 (9/26-9/28)

Average: Obama: 51.4% (51.6%)
 McCain: 41.2% (41.2%)
 Margin: 10.2% (10.4%)

Strategic Vision typically leans Republican, and even they give Obama a pretty significant lead in Wisconsin.  I’m not even sure McCain is still really contesting Wisconsin anymore, either.

Overall Thoughts

Is what McCain is doing in Pennsylvania working?  Yes and No, maybe.  We’ve seen some very slight narrowing in the polls in Pennsylvania - enough to knock the average margin below 10%.  However, this is more due to some undecideds floating to McCain than Obama losing support.  However, McCain can’t just move undecides as the polls over the past month clearly show Obama has over 50% support.  He must also chip away at the support Obama already has - something which he hasn’t been able to accomplish yet.

In other states, we see continuing Obama gains in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia while McCain gains some ground in Indiana, though still trails.  Montana and North Carolina pretty much stayed put.

McCain is still looking at a map where 286 Electoral Votes will almost certainly go to Obama, with at least 311 likely heading his way.  The increase in Obama’s support in Florida also pushes that state closer to Obama, which would push his total up to 328.

Meanwhile, McCain is hardly gaining anywhere, and is losing ground in Weak Obama states, Lean Obama states, and even his own states as Georgia falls into the Too Close To Call category and his own home state of Arizona is on the brink of following suit.  Meanwhile, Mississippi takes a step closer from leaving the red states and becoming a pink state.

There just doesn’t seem to be any movement anywhere in any amount sufficient to even make McCain competitive on election day as of today, 1 week out from Election Day.

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